KENYA (11 February)
Prospects for the 2003/04 secondary "short rains" cereal crop, for harvest from February to March 2004, are poor because of inadequate rainfall. Some unusual rain in January has provided limited relief for water supplies and pasture, but they came too late to support crop production. This “short rains” crop provides the main source of food in parts of Central and Eastern provinces and accounts for some 15 percent of total annual production. The output of the 2003 main "long rains" cereal crop estimated at nearly 2.2 million tonnes and harvested through August to November 2003 was about average.
Maize prices over the past few months decreased from their peak in June/July 2003, but they are generally higher than the comparable period in 2002. For instance, maize prices were 20 to 30 percent higher in December 2003 compared with the same time the previous year in most major markets.
In the pastoralist areas of northern and eastern Kenya, mainly Garissa, Ijara, Wajir, Mandera and Tana River, pasture and water conditions have improved due to favourable short-rainfall season. By contrast, pastoralists in western parts of the country have continued to suffer from consecutive poor seasonal rains, including the current season. The worst-affected districts include Marsabit, Turkana, Kajiado, Baringo, and some areas of Isiolo, Narok and Laikipia.
The Government of Kenya has recently distributed food assistance to an estimated 1.2 million people. A more rigorous assessment to identify the worst affected areas and people is expected to be carried out by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group.