SUDAN* (11 February)
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission, which visited the country in October/December 2003, found that generally favourable growing conditions have resulted in a record cereal crop in 2003/04, forecast at about 6.3 million tonnes, comprising 5 million tonnes of sorghum, 784 000 tonnes of millet, 356 000 tonnes of wheat (to be harvested in April/May 2004), 107 000 tonnes of maize and 35 000 tonnes of rice. At this level, cereal production is 63 percent larger than last year’s crop and about 47 percent above the average of the previous five years. Livestock throughout the country are generally in good condition; with the expected national surplus of grain and declining prices, the terms of trade for pastoralists have markedly improved.
The overall food situation is therefore highly favourable: there is the possibility of increased food availability and access for a large number of vulnerable groups. Large quantities of grain could also be exported, provided that export markets are secured, particularly in some neighbouring countries. It is also essential that the Strategic Reserve Authority for north Sudan replenish its stocks in a timely manner in order to ensure that prices do not fall below the cost of production.
Despite these positive developments, an estimated 3.6 million people in the Sudan will need food assistance amounting to about 249 000 tonnes. The escalating civil conflict in the three Darfur states has already induced the massive displacements of over a million people, and access to food has been sharply curtailed. People have lost the majority of their current harvest; if the conflict is not resolved in the next few months, it is highly probable that they will also miss the upcoming planting season and thus lose next season’s harvest as well. Preliminary analysis shows that about 400 000 IDPs and 110 000 refugees will be returning to their places of origin or choice in Sudan during the first 12 months of the implementation of the peace agreement. These individuals are currently not covered by any WFP assistance, but it is expected that they will require food aid en-route, return packages and community based assistance at their places of return.