EU (9 February)
Prospects for the winter cereal crops planted last autumn are good reflecting generally favourable weather throughout the winter so far. The main exception is in southern Spain and Portugal where persisting dry weather has led to a continuing reduction in moisture supplies for winter grains. In central and eastern parts of the region, which are prone to winterkill, snowcover has generally been sufficient to protect crops from any potentially damaging low temperatures.
With the re-introduction of the 10 percent set-aside requirement in 2005, from 5 percent in 2004, the overall cereal area in the EU is expected to decrease for the 2005 harvest. However, early indications suggest the reduction may be 1 to 2 percent. Significant area reductions forecast for durum wheat, rye and maize could be partially offset by a larger soft wheat area. Plantings of barley are expected to remain unaltered. Significant increases in wheat area are expected in France, Germany, Italy and Spain, which would more than offset reductions in several other countries, including Denmark, Hungary and Sweden.
Whatever the final area of cereals may be for the 2005 harvest, which will be uncertain until completion of the spring planting later this year, the percent reduction in output stands to be significantly larger on the assumption that yields will return to average after the bumper levels achieved last year. Based on the current area forecasts, the aggregate cereal output in EU in 2005 could be 5 to 8 percent less than the previous year’s harvest.