Demand forecasting for fertilizer marketing
|
Demand forecasting for fertilizer marketing |
Demand forecasting for fertilizer marketing
by
N.S. Parthasarathy
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owner. Applications for such permission, with a statement of the purpose and extent of the reproduction, should be addressed to the Director, Publications Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy.
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS
Rome, 1994
© FAO
Hyperlinks to non-FAO Internet sites do not imply any official endorsement of or responsibility for the opinions, ideas, data or products presented at these locations, or guarantee the validity of the information provided. The sole purpose of links to non-FAO sites is to indicate further information available on related topics.
2. Reasons for Demand Forecasting
4. Factors Influencing Fertilizer Demand
6. Assessment of Potential by "Input" and "Output" Methods
7. Time Series Analysis and Trend Extension
11. Survey of Buyers' Intentions
16. Selection of a Suitable Forecasting Method
17. Using Demand Forecasts at Company Level
18. Using Demand Forecasts at National Level
19. Some Precautions in the Preparation and Use of Forecasts
20. Timing of Demand Forecasts
I Specimen Working for Calculating Monthly Seasonal Index
II Survey of Buyers' Intention - Specimen Interview Form
III Composite of Sales Force Opinion - Forecast Format
IV Forecasting Methodologies - Screening Grid
VI Flow Chart and Specimen Working - Output Approach to Assess Fertilizer Potential
VII Flow Chart and Specimen Working - Input Approach to Assess Fertilizer Potential
VIII Time Series Analysis and Trend Extension for Demand Forecasting
IX Flow Chart and Specimen Working - Growth Rate Method for Demand Forecasting
X Flow Chart and Specimen Working - Survey of Buyers' Intentions for Sales Forecasting
XI Flow Chart and Specimen Working - Composite of Sales Force Opinion
XII Flow Chart and Specimen Working - Market Share Method for Sales Forecasting
XIII Flow Chart - Parallel Assessment of Demand to Improve Accuracy
XIV Expert Judgement - Procedure
XVI How the Demand Estimate is used for preparing the Country's Supply Plan
XVII A Typical Time Schedule for Forecasting and Procurement
XVIII Basic Statistics Needed for Forecasting
PREFACE
Accurate forecasting of fertilizer demand is essential, both for companies producing, importing and marketing fertilizer and for governments in their efforts to monitor the development of agriculture. This publication sets out to meet the needs of private and public fertilizer companies and of ministries of agriculture and other relevant ministries. It identifies the main forecasting techniques available and provides advice on methods to be adopted which are practical within the context of the limited resources available in most developing countries.
This publication has been prepared by Mr. N.S. Parthasarathy. It has benefitted from the work of M. Tahir Saleem, Ian Tywford, Iffat Khawaja, Khaliq-ur-Rehman, L. Chiodo Juvé, R.C. Gupta, U. Gupta and A. Shepherd.