FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report 10/96

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MADAGASCAR




BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Area: 582 000 sq.km
Climate: Eastern coast is tropical wet, the rest tropical wet-dry. Rains in October-March; tropical cyclones.
Population: 14.7 million (1996 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 230 (1994)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics: Dilapidated roads and lack of spare parts and tyres
Major foodcrops: Rice, roots, tubers, maize, fruit
Marketing year: April/March; Lean season: February/March
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 60 percent



CURRENT SITUATION

The 1995/96 main season harvest is now virtually complete. Following abundant and relatively well distributed rainfall in most of the growing areas of the country, the production of paddy, the major foodcrop, is estimated at some 2.5 million tons. This is above-average and over last year’s relatively good crop. However, yields remain low as in the past several years, given watershed degradation and inadequate irrigation infrastructure maintenance. Maize output is expected to reach 164 000 tons, which is also above-average. The favourable rainfall activity also benefited other crops such as cassava and potatoes.

The food supply situation in the 1996/97 marketing year is expected to improve considerably. The country is expected to cover most of its rice needs, reducing considerably the import requirements. In drought prone areas of the south, cereal, vegetables and fruit supply have been abundant since May and prices are relatively low compared to the previous year. However, a major problem for marketing activities in the south and many parts of the country remains the poor state of transportation which makes it difficult to move goods from surplus to deficit areas.



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1996/97 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)

Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
Normal production 7 1 651 152 1 810
Normal imports (incl. re-exports) 48 53 10 111
of which: Structural food aid 13 11 10 34
1996 Production 10 1 675 165 1 850
1996/97 Utilization 70 1 751 170 1 991
Food use 69 1 595 117 1 781
Non-food use 1 151 32 184
Possible stock build-up - 5 1 6
Exports - - 20 20
1996/97 Import Requirement 60 76 5 141
Anticipated commercial imports 45 70 - 115
Food aid needs 15 6 5 26
Current Aid Position



Food aid pledges 18 2 3 23
of which: Delivered 2 1 - 3
Donor-financed local purchases - - 1 1
Estimated per caput consumption (kg/year) 5 105 8 118
Indexes



1996 production as % of normal: 102
1996/97 import requirement as % of normal: 127
1996/97 food aid requirement as % of normal (including refugee needs): 76

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