FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report 10/96

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MOZAMBIQUE




BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Area: 784 000 sq.km
Climate: Tropical wet-dry; coast is semi-arid
Population: 16 million (1996 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 80 (1994)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country; exposed to tropical storms and cyclones
Logistics: Dilapidated rail and road transport fleet; lack of fuel and spares; poor roads; substantial deliveries by coastal vessels; disruption by guerrillas
Major foodcrops: Roots, tubers, maize
Marketing year: April/March; Lean season: February-March
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 53 percent



CURRENT SITUATION

Harvesting of the 1995/96 main crop is virtually complete in most parts of the country. Reflecting above-average rainfall, total cereal output is estimated at an above-average 1.4 million tons, 22 percent above last year. Maize production is estimated at 947 000 tons, 29 percent higher than last year. The output of sorghum and millet is forecast at 289 000 tons, some 4 percent higher than the previous year. Paddy output is forecast at 139 400 tons, 23 percent above 1994/95. Cassava production (fresh roots) is estimated at some 4.7 million tons, some 13 percent higher than in 1994/95, whilst the output of beans is expected to reach some 140 000 tons.

The food supply situation in the 1996/97 marketing year is expected to improve considerably. As in the previous marketing year, provinces in the north and the centre are expected to be largely self-sufficient in basic foodstuffs and will even generate higher marketable surpluses of maize.

A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the country estimated total cereal import requirement of 300 000 tons in 1996/97, 33 percent below the same period in 1995/96. Some 154 000 people will need approximately 25 000 tons of maize and 2 200 tons of pulses as emergency food assistance during the 1996/97 marketing year. Most of the emergency food aid requirement could be met with local purchases in surplus areas, mainly in the provinces of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, Zambezia, Manica, Niassa and Tete. Donors are urged to make efforts to purchase these surpluses early in the marketing year. So far, pledges amount to 122 000 tons, of which 35 000 tons have been delivered.



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1996/97 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)

Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
Normal production - 33 458 491
Normal imports (incl. re-exports) 102 60 244 406
of which: Structural food aid 102 52 408 562
1996 Production - 93 1 235 1 328
1996/97 Utilization 140 176 1 312 1 628
Food use 133 161 1 141 1 435
of which: Local purchase requirements - - (7) (7)
Non-food use 7 7 159 173
Possible stock build-up - 8 12 20
1996/97 Import Requirement 140 83 77 300
Anticipated commercial imports 70 60 10 140
Food aid needs 70 23 67 160
of which: Emergency - - 25 25
Current Aid Position



Food aid pledges 3 45 74 122
of which: Delivered - 15 20 35
Donor-financed local purchases - - 7 7
Estimated per caput consumption (kg/year) 8 10 71 89
Indexes



1996 production as % of normal: 270
1996/97 import requirement as % of normal: 74
1996/97 food aid requirement as % of normal (including refugee needs): 28

1/ Includes needs of returnees from neighbouring countries.

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