FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report 05/97

KENYA

CURRENT SITUATION

Planting of the 1997 main "long rains" season is underway. Early prospects are favourable as a result of good rains in late March and April, as well as an expected increase in the area planted to the main maize crop in response to a sharp increase in prices from the low level of the previous year.

Following the failure of the 1996/97 short rains, the harvest is estimated sharply reduced, while poor pastures conditions and water shortages resulted in significant losses of livestock. The 1996/97 short rains follow two consecutive reduced harvests. The food supply situation is extremely tight in northern and eastern parts of the country, while water scarcity has also become a serious problem. Prices of livestock have fallen sharply reflecting distress selling, at the time that prices of grains are at high levels.

The Government has declared a national disaster and is distributing relief food in 39 districts. However, with the Strategic Grain Reserve at a minimum level, it has requested international food and non food assistance. The affected population has been estimated by a UN Assessment Mission at 1.4 million persons. Most affected parts are the pastoral districts of Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera and Marsabit where 500 000 persons, or some 90 percent of the population, are at risk of food insecurity, the marginal agricultural districts of Machakos, Majieni, Kitui, Mwingi, Mbeere and Tharaka-Nithi in Eastern Province and the Kajiado and Taita Taveta districts in the Rift Valley and Coast Provinces respectively. Malnutrition is reported to be increasing in the affected districts.

The 1997 aggregate production of cereals is estimated at 2.8 million tons. Maize output is put at 2.1 million tons, a decline of 20 percent from last year.

For the 1996/97 marketing year, the revised cereal import requirement is projected at 1.2 million tons. This is almost double the average for the past five years. With commercially import expected to reach 1 million tons, there is a deficit of 200 000 tons that need to be covered by food aid to the drought-affected population of the north and north-eastern areas. The Government has lifted a ban on maize imports and reduced duties on import in order to encourage commercial imports. Against the food aid requirements, pledges until the mid-of April amount to 61 000 tons.