FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report 05/97

PART II : POSITION BY SUB-REGION

In some countries of eastern Africa, 1997 cereal crops are being planted, while in other countries of the same sub-region and in southern Africa the harvesting is underway or about to start. Planting has also started in central Africa and in the coastal countries of western Africa.

1/ Except Burundi, Rwanda and Zaire which have two main seasons and Tanzania whose main season follows the southern Africa planting calendar. For Sudan, the planting period for the staple coarse grain crop is June-July and the harvesting period is October-December.

In Eastern Africa, harvesting of the 1996/97 secondary foodcrops in areas with bi-modal rainfall distribution is completed. Following the failure of the "short rains", poor crops were gathered in most countries of the sub-region. However, the main season crops, harvested last December, were good in the main producing countries and, overall, the 1996/97 aggregate cereal production is estimated to be above average. In Ethiopia, the cereal and pulse crop of the main season was a record and the 1996/97 aggregate output, including the belg crops to be harvested later in the year, is estimated at 12 million tons. However, in the southern marginal agricultural areas the second crop was sharply reduced. In Sudan, the coarse grain output is estimated at 4.7 million tons, well above the poor harvest of the previous year, while prospects for the wheat crop, now being harvested, have improved. In Tanzania, the 1996/97 coarse grains production declined from the previous year but at 3.3 million tons remained above average. This reflects an overall good main season crop coupled with a sharply reduced second season crop in northern, coastal and north-east areas. In Kenya, the aggregate coarse grain output declined sharply from last year to a below normal level of 2.4 million tons. The main season crop was affected by lower plantings and use of agricultural inputs, while the secondary season crop was severely reduced by drought. In Uganda, the 1996 main coarse grain crop declined from the previous year but is still estimated to be average. However, the second season harvest was sharply down from the previous year mainly due to dry weather in the eastern parts and insecurity in northern areas. In Somalia, the 1996/97 aggregate coarse grain production is estimated at 287 000 tons, 10 percent above last year�s level but below the pre-war average. This reflects an increase in the main season crop and a sharp reduction in the second season crop affected by dry weather. The 1997 first season coarse grain production increased in Rwanda but, still, remained below average. In Burundi, the output of the 1997 first season was reduced by erratic weather and shortage of agricultural inputs due to the economic embargo.

The aggregate cereal import requirement in the 1996/97 marketing year is estimated at 2.58 million tons. Anticipated commercial imports are estimated at 1.95 million tons and the food and requirement at 0.63 million tons. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS as of late April 1997 amount to 404 000 tons of which 191 000 tons have been delivered so far.

In Southern Africa, the harvesting of the 1997 coarse grain crop is due to commence in the next few weeks. Prospects are generally favourable and the crop condition is good despite a late start of the season in some countries, dry spells and the incidence of floods in several regions. The sub-region�s maize crop is anticipated to be comparable to last season�s above-average crop. In Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland, another good coarse grain harvest is in prospect, if the prevailing favourable conditions last until the end of April. Flooding following excessive rains resulted in reduced yields in several provinces in Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe while in Zambia, the damage to crops was minimal. In South Africa, intermittent dry spells in several regions may result in a reduction of potential yields and dampen earlier prospects for a bumper maize harvest. Preliminary estimates of South Africa�s maize crop point to an output of some 7.5 million tons, which is less than the 1996 production of 9.9 million tons but much higher than the 1995 drought-affected output.

In Madagascar, prospects for the 1997 crops remain uncertain due to cyclones in January/February which caused severe flooding and damage to crops. In Angola and Mozambique a large number of displaced people are expected to continue to require international food assistance in 1997/98.

Revised estimates of the sub-region�s 1996 wheat crop indicate an output of 3.1 million tons, which is some 48 percent above the previous year�s 2.1 million tons. As a result of abundant water in dams which encouraged large plantings, output was above average in Lesotho, South Africa and Zimbabwe and above the previous year in Zambia. In South Africa, revised estimates of production point to a 1996 output of 2.7 million tons, 37 percent above the previous year�s already above average crop. In Zimbabwe and Lesotho, production was three times larger than the 1995 drought-affected crop. Prospects for the 1997 winter wheat to be planted later in the year are favourable as a result of abundant rains which have replenished water reservoirs.

As a result of the good cereal harvest in 1996, the sub-region�s overall food supply situation at the end of the 1996/97 marketing year has considerably improved compared to the same period last year. Substantial stocks are available in several countries and commercial imports are expected to meet most of the food needs. Due to recent floods, some emergency food assistance was needed in affected areas, particularly in Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique.

The aggregate cereal import requirement in the 1997/98 marketing year, beginning now, is provisionally estimated at 2.66 million tons. Anticipated commercial imports are estimated at 2.13 million tons and the food aid requirement at 0.53 million tons. Food aid pledges, including carry-overs, amount to 0.66 million tons as of late April 1997, of which 370 000 tons have been delivered so far.

In Western Africa, the rainy season really started in early March in the southern part of the coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, following some rains during the second week of February and a dry period in late February. Land preparation and planting of the first maize crop are progressing northwards following the onset of the rains. In the Sahelian countries, seasonably dry conditions prevail and planting should begin in June/July following the start of the rainy season.

In 1996, the aggregate cereal output for the eight coastal countries (Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Togo) is estimated at around 25.6 million tons compared with 27 million tons in 1995. The 1996 growing season was also mostly favourable for crop development in the Sahelian countries. Average to above-average harvests were reported in all the coastal countries, except in Liberia and Sierra-Leone. First estimates point to record cereal crops in Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon and Nigeria. The forecast for Togo is close to normal. Following the release of final production estimates in most of the nine CILSS member countries, the aggregate output of cereals has been revised downwards to 9.1 million tons (including paddy rice) against 9.3 million tons first estimated by the FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission in October 1996. This is about average, 2 percent up on 1995 but 7 percent lower than the record output in 1994. Output is estimated to be above average in Niger, close to average in Burkina Faso, Mali, The Gambia and Senegal but below average in Cape Verde, Chad, Mauritania and Guinea-Bissau. Compared with 1995, the production of coarse grains generally decreased while that of rice increased.

Following generally good harvests in 1996, the food supply situation is expected to remain satisfactory in the 1996/97 marketing year, except in Liberia and Sierra Leone which have been affected by civil strife. In Cape Verde, where substantial cereal commercial imports and/or food aid are planned, the food supply situation is not anticipated to be critical despite the very reduced 1996 harvest. In some areas of Chad, Mauritania and Niger, sections of population will be at risk of food shortages following poor harvests in 1996 and will require some assistance. In the other areas, following successive average to record crops, farmers' stocks are expected to be at comfortable levels. Localized deficits in some areas can be covered by transfers from surplus areas. Exportable surpluses are also available, allowing the mounting of triangular transactions, notably from Mali. Imports of wheat and rice will remain necessary, but those of coarse grains will remain small except in border areas where traditional local trade is active. For ongoing food aid programmes, donors are urged to undertake local purchases of coarse grains to the maximum extent possible.

The aggregate cereal import requirement of the sub-region in the 1996/97 marketing year is estimated at 4.95 million tons. Anticipated commercial imports are estimated at 4.296 million tons and the food aid requirement at 0.658 million tons mainly in wheat and rice. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS as of mid-April 1997 amount to 445 000 tons, of which 201 000 tons have been delivered so far. Local purchases are strongly recommended to cover needs in coarse grains for ongoing or foreseen food aid programmes or for the reconstitution of the national security stock where cereals have been borrowed from such stocks for distribution or sales in food-deficit areas.

In Central Africa, the 1996 aggregate output of cereals is expected to be average to above-average in most countries. Above-average harvests are anticipated in Cameroon and Central African Republic. In Zaire, maize is growing satisfactorily in the centre and the south. Civil strife is disrupting agricultural activities in the east.

For the 1996/97 or 1997 marketing year, the cereal import requirement is estimated at 759 000 tons, most of which in the form of commercial imports (684 000 tons). Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS as of mid-April amount to 36 000 tons, of which 19 000 tons have been delivered. Most of this amount corresponds to emergency food aid for Rwandan refugees in eastern Zaire.

Sub-Saharan Africa: Cereal Imports and Food Aid Requirements by Sub-Region (in thousand tons)

Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.