FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report - August 1997

RWANDA


Area: 25 000 sq.km
Climate: Highland rainy climate with moderate temperature (200C); two rainy seasons

(February-May and September-November)
Population: 8.056 million (1997 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 180 (1995)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country; land-locked country
Logistics: Ports: Mombasa (Kenya) and Dar es Salaam (Tanzania); roads and railway inadequate
Major foodcrops: Roots, tubers, pulses, plantains, sorghum, maize
Marketing year: January/December; Lean season: November-December
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 25 percent


CURRENT SITUATION

The 1997 second season food crops are generally in good condition and ready for harvest. Rains during the growing season have been generally adequate and a larger area than last year was planted, mainly due to the massive return of refugees. There are, however, some areas where rains were excessive and had adverse effect on crops, especially in the prefecture of Butare where a considerable crop loss is certain. According to the findings of an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in June, the area planted to the 1997 B season is larger than at the same time last year. However, the assessment further reveals that plantings were still below pre-crisis levels because of a variety of factors restricting cultivation. These include the late arrival and settlement in their communes of a large part of refugees, land disputes between returnees and current farm occupants, and lack of inputs. The mission’s estimate of 1997 B season total food production is 1.941 million tons, the bulk of which is bananas and roots/tubers. Compared to last year, the total food output from season B is some 6 percent higher. The cereal harvest, estimated at about 128 000 tons, exceeds last seasons outturn by 17 percent but sharply down from the pre-crisis level of 1990. By contrast, the production of roots and tubers declined slightly and that of pulses sharply because of excessive rains. As pulses constitute the main source of protein in the diet of the population and harvest from season A had also been poor, the situation has become alarming.

Overall, the food situation can be considered to be better than last year given that harvests from both A and B seasons are larger than last year’s. Aggregate food production for 1997 is estimated at 3.8 million tons, about 7 percent higher than last year but down from the average of the recent five years. Reflecting below-average food production, the food supply situation remains precarious in several areas. For those relying on purchases for part or all of their consumption requirements, access to food has become exceedingly difficult. As a result the need for donor assistance remains strong. The Mission estimates food aid requirements for cereals and pulses at 31 000 tons and 103 000 tons respectively. The Mission also recommends that donors provide further assistance in the form of seeds, farming tools and other inputs to ensure that preparation for next year's planting of food crops will not be hampered.



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1997 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)


Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Normal Production (rice in paddy terms)

10

9

276

295

Normal Imports

10

6

3

19

of which: Structural food aid

3

1

3

7

1997 Domestic Availability

6

7

213

226

1997 Production (rice in paddy terms)

6

10

206

222

1997 Production (rice in milled terms)

6

7

206

219

Possible stock drawdown

-

-

7

7

1997 Utilization

31

24

232

287

Food Use

31

24

208

263

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

9

9

Non-food use

-

-

24

24

Exports or Re-exports

-

-

-

-

Possible stock build up

-

-

-

-

1997 Import Requirement

25

17

19

61

Anticipated commercial imports

12

12

6

30

Food aid needs

13

15

13

31

Current Aid Position





Food aid pledges

9

10

136

155

of which: Delivered

-

8

124

142

Donor-financed local purchases

-

-

9

9

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year)

4

3

26

33

Indexes





1997 production as % of normal:




75

1996/97 import requirement as % of normal:




321

1996/97 food aid requirement as % of normal:




443

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