FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report - August 1997

SOMALIA

CURRENT SITUATION

Growing conditions for the for the 1997 ‘Gu’ season cereal crops have generally been favourable as rains since March were abundant and fairly distributed. However, plantings were substantially restricted by shortages of seeds and other inputs, as well as by the civil conflict that has been going on since 1988. The secondary season crop (‘der’) already harvested earlier in the year was poor due to late and poor rains during the growing season. This crop normally accounts for 25 percent of the total cereal production. In view of the expected reduced total production this year, coupled with last year’s reduced ‘Gu’ crop harvested last September, the estimate of total cereal production for 1996/97 is about one-half the pre-strife level. The result of this development has been a continuing deterioration in the country’s food supply situation. The inadequacy of production is seen in the movement of prices. Normally, prices show some decline immediately after harvest. But this year, prices have been rising significantly since September 1996.

To counter the deficit in food supply from domestic production, the estimate of cereal import requirements until end-August this year, the last month of the 1996/97 marketing year, remains at 256 000 tons. This consists of an estimated 170 000 tons of commercial imports and 86 000 in food aid. The food aid received by end-June 1997 amounted to only 14 000 tons. Food aid distribution continues to be hampered by the general lack of security. To avert a further deterioration of the food supply situation until the harvest from the next ‘Gu’ season become available, substantial donor assistance is required.