FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report - August 1997

TANZANIA


Area: 886 000 sq.km
Climate: December) and one in south (November-April)
Population: 30.57 million (1997 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 120 (1995)
Specific characteristics of the country: cereal deficit in the north-west. Distribution difficulties
Logistics: Serious shortage of rolling stock, fuel and spare parts
Major foodcrops: Maize, roots, tubers, sorghum, pulses, plantains, rice
Marketing year: June/May; Lean season: February-April
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 60 percent


CURRENT SITUATION

The harvesting of the main season crops is underway. Although rains were normal in May and abundant in April in the central and southern parts where rainfall is unimodal, the late start of the season and insufficient precipitation in some areas affected yields adversely. Extensive plantings with short term varieties were undertaken but this did not sufficiently offset the impact of the delay of rains by about a month. As a consequence, yields and production of maize, which accounts for the bulk of the country's cereal production is anticipated to decline. Good harvests are expected in only limited areas, notably in western parts where rains were normal. As a result, aggregate cereal production for the 1997/98 marketing year has officially been forecast at 3.41 million tons, significantly lower than last year's output. Given this reduced production, there will be a substantial shortfall, currently forecast at about 1 million tons. Reflecting this shortfall, the food supply situation has tightened, especially in the north and north-east. Crops in these areas have been reduced sharply by drought conditions. The number of affected persons needing food assistance is reported to have risen to 5.5 million. The situation of some 400 000 refugees from Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo remains a big concern.



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1997/98 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)


Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Normal Production (rice in paddy terms)

85

607

3 230

3 922

Normal Imports

60

25

-

85

of which: Structural food aid

15

15

-

30

1997/98 Domestic Availability

41

352

3 092

3 485

1997 Production (rice in paddy terms)

41

521

3 022

3 584

1997 Production (rice in milled terms)

41

347

3 022

3 410

Possible stock drawdown

-

5

70

75

1997/98 Utilization

111

407

3 182

3 700

Food Use

107

387

2 796

3 290

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

4

4

Non-food use

4

20

386

410

Exports or Re-exports

-

-

-

-

Possible stock build up

-

-

-

-

1997/98 Import Requirement

70

55

90

215

Anticipated commercial imports

55

40

90

185

Food aid needs

15

15

-

30

Current Aid Position





Food aid pledges

11

19

-

30

of which: Delivered

-

8

-

8

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year)

3

13

92

108

Indexes





1997 production as % of normal:




91

1997/98 import requirement as % of normal:




253

1997/98 food aid requirement as % of normal:




100

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