| Area: | 200 000 sq.km |
| Climate: | North-east is semi-arid, rest of the country is tropical wet-dry; main rainy period is March-October |
| Population: | 20.4 million (1997 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 240 (1995) |
| Specific characteristics of the country: | Low-income food-deficit country |
| Logistics: | Ports: Mombasa (Kenya) and Dar es Salaam (Tanzania); roads and railways inadequate |
| Major foodcrops: | Roots, tubers, plantains, pulses, maize, millet, sorghum |
| Marketing year: | January/December; Lean season: April-May |
| Share of cereals in total calorie intake: | 35 percent |
CURRENT SITUATION
The harvesting of the second season crops is proceeding and production is expected to be lower than last year's level. Except in a few districts, growing conditions have generally been unfavourable and plantings in the northern part have been adversely affected by insecurity. Given the poor harvest from the first season crops due to erratic rains in some areas and dry weather and/or floods in others, aggregate cereal production is estimated at 1.643 million tons against 2.076 million tons last year. Rains were late in the eastern, southern and western districts. The output of pulses and plantains are also estimated to fall. Only production of root crops is expected to show a marginal increase, but the widespread infestation of Cassava Mosaic Virus poses a serious problem. Domestic prices have declined in recent weeks despite the expected fall in production. The decline, however, is unlikely to be sustained as prices may be reacting only temporarily to the arrival on the market of new supplies from the new second season crop, now being harvested and supplies arriving from across the border with Kenya. The decline in bean prices is particularly significant. Bean is now offered at around Shs. 700 compared to Shs. 1300 per kilo in March. However, the overall food supply situation will remain tight as the expected increase in food production will not be adequate to cover consumption requirements in several areas. An estimated 612 000 persons who were adversely affected by drought/flood face food shortages as they are unlikely to harvest sufficient quantities of food during the second season of this year. Moreover, the situation of 150 000 internally displaced persons in several northern districts due to civil strife remains serious.
|
Wheat |
Rice |
Coarse grains |
Total |
|
|
Normal Production (rice in paddy terms) |
9 |
66 |
1 695 |
1 770 |
|
Normal Imports |
18 |
- |
10 |
28 |
|
of which: Structural food aid |
15 |
- |
10 |
25 |
|
1997 Domestic Availability |
9 |
51 |
1 557 |
1 617 |
|
1996 Production (rice in paddy terms) |
9 |
77 |
1 557 |
1 643 |
|
1996 Production (rice in milled terms) |
9 |
51 |
1 557 |
1 617 |
|
Possible stock drawdown |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
1997 Utilization |
35 |
57 |
1 567 |
1 659 |
|
Food Use |
29 |
57 |
1 062 |
1 148 |
|
of which: local purchase requirement |
- |
- |
1 |
1 |
|
Non-food use |
1 |
- |
334 |
335 |
|
Exports or Re-exports |
- |
- |
166 |
166 |
|
Possible stock build up |
5 |
- |
5 |
10 |
|
1997 Import Requirement |
26 |
6 |
10 |
42 |
|
Anticipated commercial imports |
6 |
6 |
- |
12 |
|
Food aid needs |
20 |
- |
10 |
30 |
|
Current Aid Position | ||||
|
Food aid pledges |
4 |
5 |
62 |
71 |
|
of which: Delivered |
3 |
5 |
62 |
70 |
|
Donor-financed purchases |
- |
- |
6 |
6 |
|
of which: for local purchases |
- |
- |
1 |
1 |
|
for export |
5 |
5 |
||
|
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year) |
1 |
3 |
52 |
56 |
|
Indexes | ||||
|
1996 production as % of normal: |
93 |
|||
|
1997 import requirement as % of normal: |
150 |
|||
|
1997 food aid requirement as % of normal: |
120 |