CANADA (20 February)

Latest estimates put the 1997 wheat crop at 24.3 million tonnes, about 20 percent down from the previous year and below the average of the past five years. The reduction is mostly due to a rotation from wheat to oilseeds but also average yields were lower. A small area of winter durum wheat has already been planted but the bulk of the wheat for the 1998 harvest will not be sown until May-June. Early indications point to the likelihood of a further reduction in wheat area in 1998 as relatively poor returns expected for wheat are likely to encourage farmers to switch to higher prices oilseed crops. In addition, farmers may be forced to leave more land fallow as below normal precipitation this winter is expected to result in unfavourable planting conditions in parts. Aggregate output of coarse grains in 1997 is estimated at some 25 million tonnes, about 11 percent down from the previous year, but still above the average of the past 5 years.