Seasonably dry conditions prevail. Harvesting of recession crops is underway. Recent surveys indicate that production is not going to be significantly reduced following African Migratory Locusts infestations which were reported in late 1997 in Chari and Baguirmi, the main recession crop producing zones. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission in late October estimated total cereal production for 1997/98 at 993 300 tonnes which is 13 percent up from 1996 and 9 percent above the five-year average. Reflecting better prospects for recession crops than anticipated, this figure is likely to be revised slightly upwards.
The overall food supply situation is anticipated to be better in 1997/98 than in 1996/97. Markets are generally well supplied and millet prices have declined in the Sahelian zone, except in Kanem and parts of Batha prefectures where they increased slightly. They are generally lower than the previous year at the same period, thus improving terms of trade for pastoralists. Some population movements have been reported in north Kanem and in bordering areas of Batha, Gu�ra and Oudda�. The national security stock, whose recommended level is 22 000 tonnes, is exhausted. This may impede possible interventions in vulnerable areas. Donors are urged to assist with local purchases for the reconstitution of the national security stock.