The early outlook for 1997 winter grains for harvest in 1998 is satisfactory. Early indications are that the area sown has expanded further but that yield potential will continue to be constrained by a shortage of funds for inputs and machinery. The 1997 grain harvest is estimated by FAO and the EC- TACIS in-country staff at about 0.6 million tonnes, even higher than the good 1996 harvest now officially estimated at 543 000 tonnes. Official estimates indicate that the output of cotton, the major cash crop, increased by 15 percent to 358 000 tonnes.
Even with the higher cereal production in 1997, the country could face a foodgrain deficit of nearly 300 000 tonnes, given a resident population of 5.5 million. The commercial import capacity is unlikely to exceed last year�s level, estimated at some 160 000 tonnes, leaving a food aid requirement of 137 000 tonnes under this population scenario. The food supply situation remains difficult in view of the fragile security situation, widespread unemployment or underemployment and increasingly ineffective social security provisions. Over 16 percent of the population are food insecure and cannot afford an adequate diet without targeted assistance. The humanitarian relief needs for the vulnerable populations remain large. It has been estimated that during 1998 about 900 000 people, equal to the 1997 level, will require food assistance. WFP plans to provide assistance to 500 000 people while the remaining 400 000 people will receive food from various NGOs. Against the food aid requirement, estimated at 137 000 tonnes in 1997/98 some 100 000 tonnes have been pledged to date.