RUSSIAN FEDERATION (4 February)

The early outlook for winter grains remains (cautiously) satisfactory. However the final harvest outcome will depend crucially on the extent of spring grain plantings and weather until the completion of the harvest in September/October. Final data of the area sown to winter grains by all grain producers is not yet available but early indications are that it could remain close to last year’s level of about 14 million hectares. On the (reorganized) state farms, 13.5 million hectares have been sown, only 2 percent less than in the preceding year, despite the difficult and drawn-out 1997 harvest campaign. However, in the high-yielding North Caucasus region the area sown declined by almost one fifth. Growing conditions have been somewhat mixed but satisfactory overall. A short but very cold spell in December 1998 caused some crop damage and the subsequent thaw has left grain at risk in the more southern producing areas but to date snow cover may have been just adequate in the major areas to prevent major damage. Nevertheless, winterkill could be more than last year’s very low level (about 1 million hectares). The final outcome will depend crucially on the extent of spring grain plantings. These could decline in response to a surplus availability of feedgrains from the large, but poorquality crop of 1997 and the sharp reduction in the area ploughed in the autumn after the late harvest.

The final official estimate of the 1997 grain harvest is 88.5 million tonnes, including 44.2 million tonnes of wheat, 42.2 million tonnes of coarse grains, 328 000 tonnes of paddy (despite earlier more optimistic forecasts) and 1.8 million tonnes of pulses. Export opportunities of feed grain are limited by ample supplies and low prices on the international markets and by the high domestic costs associated with grain assembling, handling and transportation and also by the limited facilities at the ports. Cereal exports (including intra-CIS trade) in 1997/98 are tentatively estimated at 3.4 million tonnes, mainly barley and some feed wheat. Extra- CIS trade is tentatively forecast at over 2 million tonnes of wheat and 0.4 million tonnes of coarse grains (barley).

Cereal imports are forecast at 3.4 million tonnes, including 2.6 million tonnes of wheat, 0.3 million tonnes of rice and 0.5 million tonnes of coarse grains. Imports from abroad are, again tentatively, forecast at 1 million tonnes, including 0.6 million tonnes of food quality wheat, 0.3 million tonnes of rice and a small quantity of maize.