The early outlook for winter crops, to be harvested in the summer of 1998 is satisfactory. On the state farms, winter grains, (mainly wheat) have been planted on just over 1.3 million hectares (of which 1 million hectares irrigated). As at least a further 100 000 hectares of winter grains have to sown on household plots, the winter grain area is 1.4 million hectares, of which about 1.3 is likely to be wheat. As planned, this is about 100 000 hectares less than last year as rainfed land is taken out of wheat production in an effort to improve average yields. Latest reports indicate that crops germinated and developed satisfactorily on at least 75 percent of the area sown on the collective farms. The latest official estimates put the 1997 grain harvest at 3.8 million tonnes, including 3.1 million tonnes of wheat, and 0.4 million tonnes of paddy. This is 7 percent more than output in the preceding year, due to better growing conditions and yields, as the area sown remained stable at 1.7 million hectares of which nearly 1 million were irrigated.
Aggregate direct food consumption of cereals and other foodstuffs is limited by low purchasing power. In rural areas grain supplies remain very tight as the cereal delivery quotas have to be met irrespective of whether the production target is achieved. In 1997/98, domestic utilization of cereals is now estimated at 4.6 million tonnes, including 3.5 million tonnes for human consumption. Given the 1997 grain harvest of 3.65 million tonnes (rice in milled equivalent) and no change in stocks, cereal imports in 1997/98 are estimated at almost 1 million tonnes, mainly wheat for human consumption. Some 0.5 million tonnes are expected to be sourced in Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation (to complete a 1996/97 barter contract for cotton), and the balance to come from outside the CIS.
The aggregate 1997 cereal output is estimated at 207 million tonnes virtually unchanged from the previous year's crop. Although wheat production fell by 5 million tonnes to 95 million tonnes, this was mostly offset by a larger coarse grains crop. Early prospects for the 1998 cereal crops are generally satisfactory. Precipitation has generally been above average throughout the EC maintaining favourable levels of soil moisture. However, rainfall has been particularly heavy in Portugal, southern Spain and southern Italy, causing some flooding and delays in winter grain planting. In the Community, aggregate winter grain plantings are estimated to have increased slightly. Latest information indicates larger areas of wheat, rye and triticale but less barley. As the land set-aside rate for 1997/98 remains at 5 percent some reduction in spring plantings is likely.