Early prospects for the 1998 cereal crops are generally favourable so far in major growing areas. Following moderate to heavy rains in many areas in November and December, widespread abundant rains were received across the country in January and early February. While the rains have largely benefited crops, waterlogging and loss of soil nutrients are reported in some areas and may negatively affect yields. Initial indications are that planting will be near the 1997 level in the northern highly productive areas and slightly lower elsewhere, with a trend towards diversification from maize to millet/sorghum, but also other crops such as paprika, sunflower, oilseeds, cotton and tobacco. Overall, in southern and western provinces which are generally vulnerable to drought, diversification to non-cereal crops in areas of concern by the impact of El Ni�o may account for 30 percent of the crop. Area planted by small scale farmers may have also been limited in some areas due to lack of credit and input distribution. The effective demand for fertilizer is reported to be low as prices appear to be out of reach for small farmers.
The national food supply situation for the 1997/98 marketing year remains relatively tight. However, most cereal requirements are expected to be met through commercial channels. Substantial import contracts have been arranged by the Government and private traders, part of which will be placed in a reserve stock and improve the stock levels.