A recent FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Burundi estimated the 1998 B season food production at about 1.85 million tonnes, an increase of 4 percent on last year's season B. Cereals suffered a 1 percent decline, while pulses, roots and tubers, and bananas rose respectively by 7 percent, 5 percent and 4 percent. The season was characterized by an improvement in the security situation except in the western and southern provinces. This allowed some of the population in re-groupment camps to return to their homes. As a consequence, cultivated land has increased, particularly for tide-over crops. Rainfall in 1998 B season was adequate and well distributed except in localized areas in the northern and eastern parts of the country.
Total food output in 1998 is forecast at 3.68 million tonnes, or 15 percent above 1997 production and about the same level as in the pre-crisis period. Food import requirements in 1998 are estimated at 42 000 tonnes of cereals and 69 000 tonnes of pulses. While, the food supply situation has improved with the satisfactory harvest of this season, it remains precarious for people still living in the displaced camps, where access to land remains insufficient to cover the food needs.
Good rains in August, which followed unseasonable dry weather, improved conditions for the 1998 main season cereal and pulse crops. The Desert Locust situation remains calm. The outlook for harvest from November is generally favourable.
The tight food supply situation due to a succession of poor harvests has been aggravated in areas affected by the armed conflict with neighbouring Ethiopia. It is estimated that a total of 275 000 people, or about 10 percent of the population, have been affected by the conflict. The Government has appealed to the international community for assistance to meet the emergency food and non-food needs of the affected populations.
Abundant rains in July and August benefited developing crops of the 1998 main "Meher" season, particularly in parts of Ahmara, Tigray and eastern Oromiya where precipitation had been insufficient. Overall prospects for the harvest from late October are favourable.
Latest official estimates of the secondary 1998 "Belg" foodcrops indicate an output 45 percent higher than last year's reduced production, but lower than the bumper crop of 1996. While a record harvest was obtained in the important growing Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples Regional State, the outcome was sharply reduced in the Belg-dependent areas of the northern highlands, mainly South Tigray, parts of North Wello, North Shewa and Northwest Shewa. The food situation in these areas, previously affected by a reduced 1997 Meher production, gives cause for concern.
As a result of the Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict, the Government's Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC) has appealed for food and non-food assistance for the affected population. Emergency food assistance for 168 000 displaced people in Tigray region and 20 000 in Afar region, amounting to 5 000 tonnes of cereals, is being provided.
Above-average rains in July and August benefited developing cereal crops of the 1998 main "long rains" season. The maize crop in the main growing area of the Rift Valley is reported in good condition. The outlook for the harvest, starting from October, is promising. Preliminary official forecasts indicate a maize output of 2.3 million tonnes, an increase of 13 percent from the reduced level of last year. Assuming normal "short rains" production early next year, the 1998/99 aggregate maize output is projected at 2.8 million tonnes. Even at this above-average level, however, production will not cover consumption needs of the increased population. Imports will still be necessary, although at a lower level than in 1997/98. Production of wheat is forecast at 315 000 tonnes, around the level of last year which covered about one-third of the national requirements.
In anticipation of the expected good harvest, prices of maize, the staple food, have declined substantially since June and are currently some 40 percent below their level of a year ago.
In arid and semi-arid areas, the good rains of the past months have improved pastures and the recovery of livestock following the huge losses of animals to floods in late 1997. Food assistance continues to be distributed to the affected population in these areas.
Security conditions deteriorated during the month of August, when at least 160 people were reported killed in fighting in the prefectures of Byumba, Ruhengeri and Kigali. As a result, WFP suspended food distributions in Ruhengeri in early September.
The 1998 second season foodcrop output was estimated by an FAO/WFP/EU/FEWS/ Government local assessment team as substantially higher than last year and around the pre-civil strife average level of 1990. The area planted increased 9 percent and good rains in May and June benefited crops. As a result, the food deficit until the next harvest is estimated at 63 000 tonnes of cereal equivalent, well below that of the first half of the year. The tight food situation, following the insufficient food production of the previous season, has eased with the new harvest. Food prices started to decline in June.
However, in the northwestern prefectures of Gitarama, Ruhengeri and Gisenyi, affected by persistent insecurity, the food situation remains tight for thousands of displaced people who were unable to plant crops this season. Cases of malnutrition are reported from some camps. Food aid is being distributed to these IDPs but increasing insecurity hampers access to several locations.
Rains towards the end of June, during the short Hagai rainy season, were too late to improve conditions of the 1998 "Gu" season crops severely affected by prolonged dry weather. However, they allowed for new plantings in some parts. The outcome of the main "Gu" season is estimated to be sharply reduced. A recent Food Security Assessment Unit (FSAU) appraisal of the cereal crops in the main southern agricultural areas, including the Hagai-off-season expected harvest, revised downwards preliminary estimates to 22 000 tonnes of sorghum, 20 percent of last year's level, and 61 000 tonnes of maize, 50 percent of the 1997 "Gu" season. The poor outcome reflects reduced plantings and yields due to insufficient rains since the beginning of the season, but also due to negative agronomic factors and financial constraints associated with the severe floods in late 1997. Insecurity in parts of the country also contributed to reductions in plantings.
Taking into account the expected reduced harvest in the northern regions (Somaliland) and assuming normal "Deyr" output, the 1998/99 aggregate cereal production is forecast at 186 000 tonnes, one third-lower than the reduced level of 1997/98 and 62 percent below the pre-war average.
The ban on livestock imports from Somalia by Saudi Arabia, one of the main markets, continues to severely affect incomes of large numbers of pastoralists, as well as the import capacity of the country.
The reduced 1998 "Gu" production will be the fifth successive poor harvest. This, coupled with the disruption of all economic activities by prolonged civil conflict, will aggravate the already precarious food situation of the majority of the population. Substantial amounts of food assistance will be required until the next harvest in December to avoid a major food crisis.
The famine in Southern Sudan, which has caused an estimated 100 000 deaths by starvation in the state of Bahr-El-Gazhal since April, has eased with improved food aid distributions since August. While in previous months continuing insecurity, restrictions to delivery and heavy rains resulted in food aid distributions well below target, the estimated requirements of 15 000 tons per month were fully covered in August. Food market prices decreased in Wau, the capital of the Western Bahr-El-Ghazal State and the number of deaths by starvation declined sharply by mid-September. However, the situation remains critical. Deaths due to lack of sanitation and safe water continue to increase and severe malnutrition remains at very high rates particularly among displaced populations. Continuing relief assistance for the affected population is needed beyond the next harvest, which is expected to be poor in several areas.
Overall prospects for the 1998 crops, to be harvested from October, have improved with abundant rains from mid-July but the situation varies substantially according to areas. Rains, which normally start in late March in the southernmost parts, were delayed by about one month. This resulted in planting reductions of the first season maize and sorghum crops in the Bahr-El-Jebel state. Subsequently, rains were erratic in most areas in May and June, with prolonged dry periods coupled with heavy rains and floods in parts. The dry weather led to crop losses of early planted crops in parts of Bahr-El-Gazal, Upper Nile and El-Buheiral states, including parts of Rumbek and Tonj areas on the west of the Nile, and Ayod, Magok, Paluer, Old Fangk and Pagil on the east bank of the Nile. By contrast, floods destroyed crops in Lafon areas of Eastern Equatoria State, as well as in north-eastern parts of the Upper Nile State, including Ganyiel, Nyal, Leer, Duar and Nhialdiu. Along the rivers Nile and Sobart, floods washed out maize and vegetable crops, particularly in Bor area of Jonglei state, but new plantings are expected in October when waters recede. Widespread and abundant rains from mid-July until early September allowed extensive plantings of cereal and non-cereal crops, particularly in northern areas where sowing takes place later. Seed availability following distributions by humanitarian agencies was better than last year although still below requirements. The late rains also allowed the recovery of long-cycle crops in parts. Nevertheless, localized floods resulted in further crop damage, mainly around Malual Akon and Weil in Northern Bahr-El-Ghazal State.
Despite crop losses by dry weather and floods in some areas, the outlook for the 1998 foodcrops has substantially improved due to the rains in recent months. The overall production is now forecast to be above the sharply reduced level of 1997. Generally good crops are expected in Upper Nile, Bahr-El-Jebel, Eastern and Western Equatoria states, as well as in Raga province of Bahr-El-Ghazal, not affected by insecurity. The rains have also benefited pastures and water supplies for livestock, reported in good condition in secure areas of Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile states.
Besides localized crop failures due to unfavourable weather, food production is anticipated to be reduced for the second consecutive year in large areas affected by continuous fighting, where population displacements hampered normal cultivation this year. In Northern Bahr-El-Ghazal State, the massive movement of population in search of safe places halted all economic activities, while thousands of cattle were lost to raiding, particularly in Malual Akon area. In the Western Bahr-El-Ghazal State, little cropping is reported in Wau and surrounding areas. Heavy displacements since January and the extremely poor nutritional situation of the population, following last year's poor harvest, prevented cultivation of crops. In Unity State, widespread fighting seriously disrupted farming activities, particularly in Bentui and Leer. Continued food aid will be necessary for the populations in these areas until the next harvest from July/October1999.
An FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission will visit the southern states of Sudan in late September to fully assess the outcome of the 1998 food production.
Elsewhere in the country, heavy rains in northern and central parts in early September resulted in the worst floods in the past 10 years in Khartoum, Northern, White Nile and Kassala States causing loss of lives, population displacements and severe damage to infrastructure and housing, as well as loss of most sorghum and maize crops. Preliminary assessment indicates that about 300 000 people have been affected by the floods. The Government has declared a state of emergency in the affected areas and has appealed for international assistance. A UN Inter-agency Mission is currently assessing the effects of the floods, including the impact on this year's crop production.
A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Tanzania estimated the total food crop production in 1998 some 32 percent above last year's reduced volume and 13 percent above the average for the past five years. Substantial increases were estimated for cereals, bananas and roots and tubers. Within the cereals group, however, millet and sorghum production was forecast to fall by 32 percent, while maize and paddy were estimated to increase by 54 and 89 percent respectively. Abundant rains this year encouraged farmers to expand the total area planted to food crops by 15 percent above last year.
Food supply in the 1998/99 marketing year is forecast to exceed requirements for most foodcrops, except sorghum/millet and wheat. The shortfall in sorghum/millet is expected to be partially covered by substitution with non-cereal crops. Exports of rice in the order of 100 000 tonnes and 70 000 tonnes of maize are anticipated, the latter mainly in the form of already authorized exports and informal cross-border trade. Notwithstanding an overall increase in food production much of central Tanzania and parts of northern and coastal areas are likely to experience considerable food deficits. Some 300 000 people will require food assistance.
Harvest of the 1998 first season foodcrops is well advanced, while planting of the second season crops is underway. Rains in late July and August hampered harvest operations but provided soil moisture for land preparation for the second season planting. Overall, the 1998 first season production of maize and beans is estimated to be good. However, there are regional variations. In southern, south-western and western parts, despite a delay in the onset of the rains, yields and output are satisfactory. By contrast, a dry spell in the second dekad of May in the north, northeastern and eastern parts resulted in reduced production. In the northern districts of Gulu and Kitgum, the intensification of rebel activity at planting time further reduced production levels.
The overall food supply situation has improved with the arrival of the new harvest. Prices of beans and maize have declined. However, food difficulties are being experienced in the northern and western areas where civil conflict persists. Food aid is being provided to 400 000 displaced people but insecurity hampers access to the needy population. Food aid is also required for 126 000 people in northeastern areas of Kotido, Moroto and Kitgum affected by a succession of poor harvests.