FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 09/98 - SOUTH AFRICA (3 September)

SOUTH AFRICA (3 September)

Aggregate output of cereals in 1998 is currently estimated at 10 million tonnes, some 16 percent lower than last year's above-average crop. This includes 7.6 million tonnes of maize, which is 16 percent down from last year's output of 9 million tonnes, mainly due to reduced plantings and prolonged dry spells that reduced yields. However, this reduced harvest is unlikely to seriously limit the exportable maize surplus to the deficit countries in the sub-region, given the large carryover stock.

The early outlook for the wheat crop to be harvested towards the end of the year is unfavourable. Despite recent favourable weather conditions, production in 1998 will be negatively affected by a sharp reduction in plantings as confirmed by the September official forecast which points to a 46 percent reduction in area planted and a 35 percent drop in output compared to 1997.

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