FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 09/98 - SOMALIA* (3 September)
Rains towards the end of June, during the short Hagai rainy season, were too late to improve conditions of the 1998 “Gu” season crops severely affected by prolonged dry weather. However, they allowed for new plantings in some parts. The outcome of the main “Gu” season is estimated to be sharply reduced. A recent Food Security Assessment Unit (FSAU) appraisal of the cereal crops in the main southern agricultural areas, including the Hagai-off-season expected harvest, revised downwards preliminary estimates to 22 000 tonnes of sorghum, 20 percent of last year’s level, and 61 000 tonnes of maize, 50 percent of the 1997 “Gu” season. The poor outcome reflects reduced plantings and yields due to insufficient rains since the beginning of the season, but also due to negative agronomic factors and financial constraints associated with the severe floods in late 1997. Insecurity in parts of the country also contributed to reductions in plantings.
Taking into account the expected reduced harvest in the northern regions (Somaliland) and assuming normal “Deyr” output, the 1998/99 aggregate cereal production is forecast at 186 000 tonnes, one third-lower than the reduced level of 1997/98 and 62 percent below the pre-war average.
The ban on livestock imports from Somalia by Saudi Arabia, one of the main markets, continues to severely affect incomes of large numbers of pastoralists, as well as the import capacity of the country.
The reduced 1998 “Gu” production will be the fifth successive poor harvest. This, coupled with the disruption of all economic activities by prolonged civil conflict, will aggravate the already precarious food situation of the majority of the population. Substantial amounts of food assistance will be required until the next harvest in December to avoid a major food crisis.
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