FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 09/98 - SUDAN* (15 September)
The famine in Southern Sudan, which has caused an estimated 100 000 deaths by starvation in the state of Bahr-El-Gazhal since April, has eased with improved food aid distributions since August. While in previous months continuing insecurity, restrictions to delivery and heavy rains resulted in food aid distributions well below target, the estimated requirements of 15 000 tons per month were fully covered in August. Food market prices decreased in Wau, the capital of the Western Bahr-El-Ghazal State and the number of deaths by starvation declined sharply by mid-September. However, the situation remains critical. Deaths due to lack of sanitation and safe water continue to increase and severe malnutrition remains at very high rates particularly among displaced populations. Continuing relief assistance for the affected population is needed beyond the next harvest, which is expected to be poor in several areas.
Overall prospects for the 1998 crops, to be harvested from October, have improved with abundant rains from mid-July but the situation varies substantially according to areas. Rains, which normally start in late March in the southernmost parts, were delayed by about one month. This resulted in planting reductions of the first season maize and sorghum crops in the Bahr-El-Jebel state. Subsequently, rains were erratic in most areas in May and June, with prolonged dry periods coupled with heavy rains and floods in parts. The dry weather led to crop losses of early planted crops in parts of Bahr-El- Gazal, Upper Nile and El-Buheiral states, including parts of Rumbek and Tonj areas on the west of the Nile, and Ayod, Magok, Paluer, Old Fangk and Pagil on the east bank of the Nile. By contrast, floods destroyed crops in Lafon areas of Eastern Equatoria State, as well as in north- eastern parts of the Upper Nile State, including Ganyiel, Nyal, Leer, Duar and Nhialdiu. Along the rivers Nile and Sobart, floods washed out maize and vegetable crops, particularly in Bor area of Jonglei state, but new plantings are expected in October when waters recede. Widespread and abundant rains from mid-July until early September allowed extensive plantings of cereal and non-cereal crops, particularly in northern areas where sowing takes place later. Seed availability following distributions by humanitarian agencies was better than last year although still below requirements. The late rains also allowed the recovery of long-cycle crops in parts. Nevertheless, localized floods resulted in further crop damage, mainly around Malual Akon and Weil in Northern BahrEl-Ghazal State.
Despite crop losses by dry weather and floods in some areas, the outlook for the 1998 foodcrops has substantially improved due to the rains in recent months. The overall production is now forecast to be above the sharply reduced level of 1997. Generally good crops are expected in Upper Nile, Bahr-ElJebel, Eastern and Western Equatoria states, as well as in Raga province of Bahr-El-Ghazal, not affected by insecurity. The rains have also benefited pastures and water supplies for livestock, reported in good condition in secure areas of Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile states.
Besides localized crop failures due to unfavourable weather, food production is anticipated to be reduced for the second consecutive year in large areas affected by continuous fighting, where population displacements hampered normal cultivation this year. In Northern Bahr-El-Ghazal State, the massive movement of population in search of safe places halted all economic activities, while thousands of cattle were lost to raiding, particularly in Malual Akon area. In the Western Bahr-El-Ghazal State, little cropping is reported in Wau and surrounding areas. Heavy displacements since January and the extremely poor nutritional situation of the population, following last year�s poor harvest, prevented cultivation of crops. In Unity State, widespread fighting seriously disrupted farming activities, particularly in Bentui and Leer. Continued food aid will be necessary for the populations in these areas until the next harvest from July/October1999.
An FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission will visit the southern states of Sudan in late September to fully assess the outcome of the 1998 food production.
Elsewhere in the country, heavy rains in northern and central parts in early September resulted in the worst floods in the past 10 years in Khartoum, Northern, White Nile and Kassala States causing loss of lives, population displacements and severe damage to infrastructure and housing, as well as loss of most sorghum and maize crops. Preliminary assessment indicates that about 300 000 people have been affected by the floods. The Government has declared a state of emergency in the affected areas and has appealed for international assistance. A UN Inter-agency Mission is currently assessing the effects of the floods, including the impact on this year�s crop production.
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