FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 09/98 - TAJIKISTAN* (3 September)

The current prospects are for a decline in cereal production in 1998. The preliminary estimate of 510 000 tonnes is some 13 percent lower than the 1997 crop. The total area planted to cereals in 1998 is estimated at 371 000 hectares, somewhat below the 392 000 hectares planted last year: the main reason for the decline appears to be a shift into cotton. Some 15 000 hectares were damaged or washed away by flooding in April. The flooding also posed logistics problems for the timely delivery of agricultural inputs for the spring crops. The cold spring and rusts and smuts have caused some reductions in grain yields and quality. Yields of wheat, the main cereal crop, are estimated at 1.46 tonnes per hectare, compared to last year�s level of 1.6 tonnes.

Despite the decline in domestic output, the total cereal import requirement for 1998/99 (July/June) is tentatively estimated at 360 000 tonnes. This is close to actual cereal imports during the previous marketing year (365 000 tonnes of which 124 000 tonnes were food aid), as there is likely to be some scope for drawing down stock in 1998/99.

In April 1998, heavy rains resulted in floods and landslides and consequent losses of life and property. An appeal was launched in late July for a total of US$6.61 million, to support relief and rehabilitation activities. The security situation is reported to be relatively calm, although there have been sporadic clashes between the Government forces and opposition groups.

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