FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 09/98 - RUSSIAN FEDERATION (3 September)

Harvesting and threshing of spring grains was well behind schedule, interrupted by showers in August, although early September was unusually warm and dry. Planting of winter grains is underway, with much-needed soil moisture provided by recent rains in the south. The total area planted to cereals in 1998 is estimated at 49.9 million hectares, which is some 8 percent down on the average of the last five years.

Yields of the major grains have declined this year as a result of prolonged dry spells, especially in the Urals, lower Volga valley and North Caucasus. The latest estimates put total 1998 cereal production at 65.46 million tonnes, 18 percent lower than the 1993-1997 average and well below the 86.77 million tonnes harvested last year. Wheat production is set to fall to around 35 million tonnes from 44.2 million tonnes in 1997. Preliminary estimates indicate that drought in the main barley areas has resulted in a barley harvest that is only two thirds of the 1993-1997 average, reputedly the lowest outturn since 1962, so a major fall in exports is certain. the potato crop is also well below average.

The cereal import requirement for 1998/99 is preliminarily estimated at about 3 million tonnes. The dramatic decline in the rouble from mid-August, and related political crisis, give rise for concern over Russia�s capacity to meet its food import requirement. There may be a move from higher valued and processed commodities towards staples.

The recent events have led to speculative hoarding and a rush on the part of consumers to purchase the available stock. There are fears that dramatic falls in real income, rising unemployment and increased food prices will prompt food crisis in the coming months. The security situation in the Republic of Daghestan in the north Caucasus, continues to deteriorate.

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