FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.2, August 1999 ETHIOPIA 17

Area:	976 680 sq.km
Climate:	Northern coastal area and lowlands in south and east are semi-arid to arid; rest of country has a highland rainy climate with mild winter.
Population:	61.67 million (1999 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: US$ 110 (1997)
Specific characteristics of the country:	Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics:	Land-locked country, roads inadequate
Major foodcrops:	Maize, teff, barley, sorghum, wheat, pulses, enset (false banana)
Marketing year:	January/December; Lean season: August-November
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:	69 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

The 1999 "Belg" crop, normally harvested from June, has largely failed due to inadequate rainfall. Although Belg production accounts for only 7 percent of total cereal production, it is important in several areas where it provides the bulk of annual food supplies. The magnitude of food shortages has, therefore, increased in terms of numbers and areas affected. The worst hit area is the north-western Amhara Region, where some 2 million people face severe food shortages. The Government has recently appealed for 425 144 tonnes of food aid for an estimated 5.3 million vulnerable people, including those affected by the failure of the Belg season, as well as 385 000 internally displaced people due to the ongoing conflict with Eritrea.

Despite some beneficial rains in recent months, southern and eastern pastoral areas are yet to recover from consecutive years of drought and the severe shortages of water. The recent lifting of the ban on livestock imports from the Horn by Saudi Arabia is expected to increase incomes in pastoral areas. An Emergency Operation for food assistance to 1.2 million people, worth some US$40.5 million was jointly approved by FAO and WFP on 31 May 1999. Against total food aid requirement of 551 271 tonnes food aid, pledges as of June 1999 amounted to about 360 000 tonnes, of which 195 000 tonnes have been delivered.

Planting of the 1999 Meher (main season) cereal crops is underway. Early prospects are uncertain, despite beneficial rains in June and July. Inadequate rains in April and May have delayed land preparation and planting of long-cycle crops in some parts of the country. Furthermore, about 350 000 hectares have so far been treated for armyworm infestations and the extent of crop damage is not yet known.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1999 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)

	Wheat	Rice	Coarse grains	Total
Normal Production	950	-	5 600	6 550
Normal Imports	700	5	75	780
of which: Structural food aid	380	5	65	450
1999 Domestic Availability	1 500	-	9 465	10 965
1998/99 Production (rice in paddy terms)	1 450	-	9 465	10 915
1998/99 Production (rice in milled terms)	1 450	-	9 465	10 915
Possible stock drawdown	50	-	-	50
1999 Utilization	1 685	15	9 465	11 165
Food Use	1 435	15	6 470	7 920
of which: local purchase requirement	-	-	216	216
Non-food use	250	-	2 375	2 625
Exports or Re-exports	-	-	180	180
Possible stock build up	-	-	440	440
1999 Import Requirement	185	15	-	200
Anticipated commercial imports	-	15	-	15
Food aid needs	185	-	-	185
Current Aid Position
Food aid pledges	352	1	7	359
Of which: Delivered	287	1	5	292
Donor-financed purchases	-	-	35	35
Of which: for local use	-	-	216	216
for export	-	-	-	-
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year)	23	0	105	128
Indexes
1998/99 production as % of normal:				167
1999 import requirement as % of normal:				26
1999 food aid requirement as % of normal:				41