FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.2, August 1999 KENYA 23

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KENYA

Area:
570 000 sq.km
Climate:
North-east is semi-arid to arid; mountainous central and south-western areas have two rainy seasons: March-May and November December.
Population:
31.10 million (1999 estimate), GNP per caput US$ 330 (1997)
Specific characteristics of the country:
Low-income food-deficit country; regular importer and occasional exporter of grain.
Logistics:
Good port (Mombasa) and extensive rail and road network. Gateway to Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda
Major foodcrops:
Maize, wheat, pulses, roots and tubers
Marketing year:
October/September
Lean season:
June-July
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:
56 percent


CURRENT SITUATION


The 1999 main season maize crop, currently nearing maturity, has been affected by the scarcity and increasingly expensive agricultural inputs, erratic rains and armyworm infestation of some 50 000 hectares. Although area planted is similar to 1998, preliminary official estimates for the long rains season indicate a maize output of about 1.95 million tonnes compared to the previous five-year average of over 2.1 million tonnes. Significant output reductions were reported for the Eastern, Central and Rift Valley Provinces.

The food supply situation is critical in the northern and eastern pastoral districts where rainfall for this season has been erratic and insufficient to ensure that pastures and water supplies last until the next rains in October. Many herders have been forced to move their livestock several months earlier than usual to remote and insecure pastures. High and rising child malnutrition rates were reported for most of the pastoral districts. Severe food shortages were also reported, particularly from Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Maragua, Thika and Nyeri districts in Central Provinces. In response, the Government provided about 4 000 tonnes of relief food to vulnerable households in Eastern Province and the pastoral districts. The situation is likely to deteriorate in the coming months with the depletion of food stocks. Additional food aid is urgently needed for the affected population.


CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1998/99 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


  Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
Normal Production 241 49 2 587 2 877
Normal Imports 311 57 312 680
of which: Structural food aid 74 - - 74
1998/99 Domestic Availability 465 161 3 175 3 801
1998 Production (rice in paddy terms) 315 48 2 695 3 058
1998 Production (rice in milled terms) 315 31 2 695 3 041
Possible stock drawdown 150 130 480 760
1998/99 Utilization 765 281 3 545 4 591
Food Use 715 241 3 021 3 977
of which: local purchase requirement - - 6 6
Non-food use 50 40 501 591
Exports or Re-exports - - 23 23
Possible stock build up - - - -
1998/99 Import Requirement 300 120 370 790
Anticipated commercial imports 251 120 350 721
Food aid needs 49 - 20 69
Current Aid Position        
Food aid pledges 53 - 23 76
of which: Delivered 45 - 22 67
Donor-financed purchases - - 29 29
of which: for local use - - 6 6
for export - - 23 23
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year) 23 8 97 128
Indexes        
1998 production as % of normal:       106
1998/99 import requirement as % of normal:       116
1998/99 food aid requirement as % of normal:       93


FAO/GIEWS - August 1999

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