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38 Any attempt to guess the future policies of the large number of countries included in this study is unlikely to be successful.

39 Mortality rates here do not refer to mortality in the silvicultural sense (i.e. the reduction in stems per hectare due to mortality throughout the growing cycle). Rather it refers to the process of reducing reported planting areas to account for inaccuracies in reported statistics and crop failure. Two adjustments have been made as part of this process. Firstly, the area of forest plantations in each age-class (from the literature search) has been reduced so that, in total, they equal the netted-down total area reported by Pandey (1997). In this process, an exponential weighting function was used to reduce areas in the older age-classes by relatively more than in the younger age-classes (on the grounds that statistics on the areas most recently planted are likely to be more accurate). Secondly, statistics on planting for each country report the area planted but, in many countries, a proportion of that area dies after the first few years. Another exponential function was, therefore, used to simulate the likely losses from crop failure across the age classes derived for a country as forest plantation areas mature throughout the projection period. This function placed most of the losses in areas that have been planted recently, because the probability of crop failure is likely to decline over time as forest plantations mature. These adjustment factors therefore, vary over time, but they do not vary between the different scenarios. For further details, see: Appendix 1 on page 131.

40 For example, if the area of forest plantations in a country has increased from 1 million hectares in 1990 to 1.5 million hectares in 1995, this would imply a current establishment rate of 100,000 hectares per year. Under this scenario, it would be assumed that this country will establish 100,000 hectares per year from 1995 to 2004, 80,000 hectares per year from 2005 to 2014, 60,000 hectares per year from 2015 to 2024, 40,000 hectares per year from 2025 to 2034 and 20,000 hectares per year from 2035 to 2050.

41 Note that these projections are projections of potential production (i.e. the volume of wood that will reach the end of its rotation period in each year). Actual production in any year may be different to this for a number of factors. Consequently, these projections should be viewed as projections of volumes that forest plantations could produce rather than as the level of production that they actually will produce.

42 Projecting future potential production from non-industrial forest plantations is subject to a number of additional uncertainties. Firstly, it is often difficult to clearly identify whether non-industrial forest plantations are managed wood fuel production or are managed for water or soil protection, recreation or similar non-productive purposes. Secondly, even when it is clear that a forest plantation will be used for wood fuel production, it is often impossible to know whether the main stem will be harvested and/or whether other parts of the woody biomass will be utilised. Wood fuel plantations may also be managed under management systems that are more difficult to model at this scale (e.g. coppice, coppice with standards, or continuous cover management systems).

43 i.e. by an absolute amount each year equal to one percent of the area in 1995, not one percent compounded.

44 Note: due to difficulties with separating data, annual planting rates cited in Pandey include elements of both new planting and restocking for some countries and other information had to be used to solve this problem.

45 Note that this discussion only considers future projections of industrial roundwood supply and demand. Estimates of current wood fuel production and consumption are believed to be very unreliable and any projections based on current information are likely to be highly uncertain. Wood fuel supply and demand and a revision to current estimates will be considered in a separate study to this (GFPOS/WP/05).

46 These alternative options are quite feasible and it is likely that gains in several of these areas will be made in the future anyway, but have not been taken into account here.

47 That is, significant advantages (for example, supply security, stable raw material pricing and material scheduling advantages) generally accrue to companies that own both forests and processing facilities. Similarly, processors located close to their markets generally capture marketing advantages. The present structure of the forest industry suggests, therefore, that developed countries will continue to have this important competitive advantage, where forest plantations are owned as part of a vertically-integrated system and are located close to their final market.

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