Table 1: Decadal RCR Estimates by Developing Country Region
Region |
1960s |
1970s |
1980s |
1990s |
1996-2000 |
Latin America & Caribbean |
.111 |
.198 |
.175 |
.284 |
.192 (.066) |
Asia (incl. China) |
.078 |
.075 |
.229 |
.204 |
.147 (.089) |
Middle East North Africa |
.179 |
.138 |
.214 |
.214 |
.186 (.069) |
Sub-Saharan Africa |
.154 |
-.067 |
.274 |
.217 |
.144 (.028) |
Table 2: Modern Variety Diffusion 1970, 1980, 1990, 1998.
Percent area planted to modern varieties |
||||||||||||||||
|
Latin America |
Asia (including China |
Middle East - North Africa |
Sub-Saharan Africa |
||||||||||||
|
1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
1998 |
1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
1998 |
1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
1998 |
1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
1998 |
Wheat |
11 |
46 |
82 |
90 |
19 |
49 |
74 |
86 |
5 |
18 |
38 |
66 |
5 |
22 |
32 |
52 |
Rice |
2 |
22 |
52 |
65 |
10 |
35 |
55 |
65 |
|
|
|
|
0 |
2 |
15 |
40 |
Maize |
10 |
20 |
30 |
46 |
10 |
25 |
45 |
70 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
4 |
15 |
17 |
Sorghum |
|
|
|
|
4 |
20 |
54 |
70 |
|
|
|
|
0 |
8 |
15 |
26 |
Millets |
|
|
|
|
5 |
30 |
50 |
78 |
|
|
|
|
0 |
0 |
5 |
14 |
Barley |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
7 |
17 |
49 |
|
|
|
|
Lentils |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
0 |
5 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
Beans |
1 |
2 |
15 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
0 |
2 |
15 |
Groundnut |
|
|
|
|
0 |
15 |
20 |
50 |
|
|
|
|
0 |
0 |
20 |
40 |
Cassava |
0 |
1 |
2 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
0 |
0 |
2 |
18 |
Potatoes |
25 |
54 |
69 |
84 |
30 |
50 |
70 |
90 |
|
|
|
|
0 |
25 |
50 |
78 |
All crops |
8 |
23 |
39 |
52 |
13 |
43 |
63 |
82 |
4 |
13 |
29 |
58 |
1 |
4 |
13 |
27 |
Table 3: Synthesis: Estimates of MV/TV and MV/MV Impacts on Yield Crop Studies and Country Studies
MV/TV Estimates (Full Replacement) |
MB/MV (Turnover) Estimates (Full Turnover) |
||||||||
Crop |
Country |
Tonnes/ha |
Percent |
Source |
Country |
Tonnes/ha |
Percent |
Source |
Consensus |
Wheat |
India |
.98 |
46 |
Evenson, '98 |
China |
.74 |
24 |
Chapt. 18 |
45% |
|
India |
.98 |
45 |
Chapt. 19 |
Latin America |
.2 |
10 |
Chapt. 4 |
|
Rice |
India |
.50 |
33 |
Gollin & |
China |
1.6 |
29 |
Chapt. 12 |
47% |
|
India |
.98 |
65 |
Evenson, '98 |
Brazil |
.5 |
20 |
Chapt. 20 |
|
|
India |
.67 |
43 |
Chapt. 19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sub-Saharan |
|
24 |
Chapt. 6 |
|
|
|
|
|
Maize |
India |
.98 |
65 |
Chapt. 19 |
Brazil |
.41 |
20 |
Chapt. 20 |
50% |
|
Sub-Saharan |
.60 |
45 |
Chapt. 8 |
Latin America |
|
5-15 |
Chapt. 7 |
|
Sorghum |
India |
1.38 |
80 |
Chapt. 9 |
|
|
|
|
45% |
|
India |
|
37-40 |
Chapt. 9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sub-Saharan |
|
7-63 |
Chapt. 9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Pearl Millet |
India |
.48 |
45 |
Chapt. 19 |
India |
|
40-45 |
Chapt. 10 |
45% |
|
India |
|
45 |
Chapt. 10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sub-Saharan |
|
38 |
Chapter 10 |
|
|
|
|
|
Barley |
Middle |
|
25 |
Chapt. 11 |
|
|
|
|
41% |
Lentils |
Middle |
|
41 |
Chapt. 13 |
|
|
|
|
41% |
Beans |
Latin |
.21 |
35 |
Chapt. 12 |
|
|
|
|
25% |
|
Sub-Saharan |
.4 |
55 |
Chapt. 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cassava |
Sub-Saharan |
3.74 |
49 |
Chapt. 16 |
|
|
|
|
48% |
|
Latin |
3.29 |
29 |
Chapt. 16 |
|
|
|
|
|
Potatoes |
Global |
2.5 |
35 |
Chapt. 15 |
|
|
|
|
35% |
Table 4: TFP Growth Estimates, Rice, Wheat and Maize. Dependent Variable TFP Growth by Decade
|
Rice |
Wheat |
Maize |
Pooled |
||||
|
(1) |
(2) |
(1) |
(2) |
(1) |
(2) |
(1) |
(2) |
1965-76 |
.147** |
.083** |
.582** |
.431** |
.282** |
.254** |
.231** |
.253** |
1975-86 |
.159 |
.094 |
.384** |
.236** |
.186** |
.150** |
.148** |
.160** |
1986-95 |
.059 |
.015** |
.096** |
.048** |
.308 |
.279** |
.096** |
.122** |
Wheat |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
.143** |
Rice |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-.131** |
East-SE Asia |
|
.089** |
|
.309** |
|
.143** |
|
.134** |
South Asia |
|
.043 |
|
.193** |
|
-.217** |
|
.045* |
Middle East |
|
.104 |
|
-.046 |
|
-.128 |
|
-.113* |
Sub-Saharan |
|
.102 |
|
.192 |
|
.018 |
|
.170** |
# Obser. |
162 |
162 |
96 |
96 |
192 |
192 |
450 |
450 |
R2 |
.084 |
.119 |
.304 |
.436 |
.034 |
.157 |
.034 |
.288 |
Table 5: TFP-MVA Relationships. Dependent Variable: Cumulated TFP Growth
Independent |
Rice |
Wheat |
Maize |
Pooled |
Pooled |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulated MV |
.720 |
.470 |
.644 |
.534 |
Sq (CMVA) |
.253 (.73) |
Adoption |
(3.82) |
(1.18) |
(3.24) |
(2.83) |
SQRT (CMVA) |
.156 (.82) |
(CMVA) |
|
|
|
|
HA x CMVA |
4.88 (1.00) |
|
.059 |
.302 |
|
|
.179 |
|
d 1976-85 |
(.66) |
(1.23) |
NR |
(1.31) |
(1.45) |
|
|
-.048 |
.355 |
2.476 |
.201 |
.188 |
|
d 1985-95 |
(.42) |
(1.17) |
(5.43) |
(1.57) |
(1.32) |
|
|
-.079 |
.467 |
-.019 |
1.203 |
.231 |
|
Constant |
(.89) |
(2.43) |
(.15) |
(.73) |
(.95) |
|
|
|
|
|
.421 |
-.302 |
|
D Wheat |
|
|
|
(2.93) |
(2.04) |
|
|
|
|
|
-.218 |
-.306 |
|
D rice |
|
|
|
(1.13) |
(2.05) |
|
# Obser |
51 |
60 |
38 |
149 |
149 |
|
R2 |
.339 |
.152 |
.497 |
.390 |
.337 |
Table 6: CGI Contributions to Yield Growth by Crop
|
Contribution Shares |
||||||||
|
Adoption |
Varieties |
|||||||
Crop |
1960s |
1970s |
1980s |
1990s |
1960-98 |
IX |
IA |
IX |
IA |
Wheat |
.514 |
.981 |
1.125 |
.975 |
.960 |
.32 |
.32 |
.49 |
.37 |
Rice |
.342 |
.940 |
.959 |
.747 |
.794 |
.29 |
.29 |
.20 |
.32 |
Maize |
.311 |
.481 |
.733 |
.906 |
.665 |
.23 |
.32 |
.28 |
.19 |
Sorghum |
.055 |
.391 |
.716 |
.676 |
.504 |
.22 |
.16 |
.16 |
.11 |
Millets |
.228 |
.428 |
.537 |
.854 |
.565 |
.27 |
.38 |
.15 |
.50 |
Barley |
.073 |
.199 |
.424 |
1.01 |
.490 |
.50 |
.30 |
.49 |
.20 |
Lentils |
0.0 |
0.0 |
.193 |
.750 |
.283 |
.70 |
.20 |
.54 |
.65 |
Beans |
.022 |
.027 |
.367 |
.331 |
.208 |
.80 |
.20 |
.72 |
.05 |
Cassava |
0.0 |
.006 |
.087 |
.636 |
.222 |
.74 |
.19 |
.53 |
.16 |
Potatoes |
.708 |
.711 |
.749 |
.846 |
.739 |
.08 |
.09 |
.17 |
.08 |
All Crops |
.321 |
.676 |
.832 |
.823 |
.718 |
.35 |
.30 |
.36 |
.22 |
IX: Varietal cross made in IARC program
IA: Varietal Cross in NARS program with IARC ancestor
Table 7: CGI Contributions to Yield Growth by Regions
|
Contribution Shares |
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adoption |
Varieties |
||
Region |
1960s |
1970s |
1980s |
1990s |
1960-98 |
IX |
IA |
IX |
IA |
Latin America |
.312 |
.600 |
.781 |
.751 |
.658 |
.28 |
.30 |
.39 |
.18 |
Asia (including China) |
.452 |
.932 |
1.030 |
.890 |
.884 |
.30 |
.37 |
.18 |
.39 |
Middle East- North Africa |
.141 |
.270 |
.681 |
1.228 |
.688 |
.51 |
.31 |
.62 |
.28 |
Sub-Saharan Africa |
.017 |
.142 |
.358 |
.497 |
.280 |
.44 |
.27 |
.45 |
.28 |
All Regions |
.321 |
.676 |
.832 |
.823 |
.718 |
.35 |
.34 |
.36 |
.19 |
IX: Varietal cross made in IARC program
IA: Varietal cross in NARS program with IARC assistance