1 Introduction

Historically Namibia has been well known for a mining industry that has thrived for over 100 years, with diamonds at the centre of it all. The mining industry is just among the many natural resources that the country has despite being the most arid country in Southern Africa. The other natural resource-based economic activities include a commercial fishing industry, commercial livestock ranching and nature-based tourism. Subsistence farming either with livestock or cultivation in the wetter northern half is the primary source of survival for the rural and largely poor majority. So far mining is still the largest foreign exchange earner, followed by commercial fishing. This is closely followed by tourism, which has the most optimistic growth potential. Agriculture even though it employs 70% of the population, contributes just about 10% of the GDP. The forest sector does not feature at all in the estimation of GDP simply because there is neither a formal industrial plantation base nor rich commercially exploited natural forests. Despite this, the sector contributes values worth an estimated 1.05 billion Namibian Dollars indirectly to the rural economy through biomass energy, shelter, non-timber products and through ecosystem values which support wildlife based tourism and environmental conservation. The GDP of Namibia at constant prices ranged from 7.01 billion Namibian dollars in 1992 to 8.4 billion Namibian Dollars in 1999 (Table 2).

At the time that this report was being prepared, Namibia was undertaking a massive national planning exercise; the second National Development Plan (NDPII, 2001-2005). To provide an economic framework for the planning process, one has to take into consideration, forecasts on economic growth during the next five years during NDPII. In the chosen scenario, the major sectors will perform as follows between 2000 and 2006:

Mining will grow by an average of 8.2% between 2000-2006.

Tourism related growth is likely to grow at 6% per year, the largest in the tertiary industry.

Meet and fish processing with increase by 6.4 and 6.7% respectively

Commercial agriculture will also post a strong growth of 7%, thanks to new irrigated commercial grape farming in the south.

The construction industry is likely to grow by 5% per year over the same period.

The forest sector in Namibia is characterized by a resource base, consisting of semi-open woodlands, savannahs and deserts, formed under the most arid conditions in Southern Africa. These broad ecological divisions support the majority of its population of 1.7 million, living in the rural areas and engaged mainly in subsistence cultivation and livestock based agriculture. It meets its industrial wood and wood product needs from imports, while its rural populace interacts extensively with the natural woodlands, for their basic needs, in addition to those of the rapidly growing arts and crafts industry. The woodlands are dominated by the Kalahari Sands type; formed on deep ancient aeolian sand deposits, which are predominant in the Tsumkwe, Kavango, Ohangwena, Oshikoto and Caprivi Regions of the North and North Eastern parts of Namibia. The tallest tree species consist of Pterocarpus angolensis, Baikiaea plurijuga and Burkea africana and in some places, Terminalia sericea. The next prominent woodland type is the Mopane Woodlands with a distribution, which represents the most westernmost of its natural range in Southern Africa. A land cover reconnaissance project done in the more heavily wooded northern parts of Namibia yielded area statistics on land cover and use types. The total land area in northern Namibia surveyed was 28,430,127 ha. Of this, 6.4% is under extensive cultivation, 0.32% is under intensive cultivation, 25.88% is covered by woodlands, 54.4 % wooded savannahs and the remaining 12.99% is covered by other vegetation types, open water, grasslands and so on. More is given in chapter 3 of the report and the statistics are in Table 6.

It is also worth stressing, that the woodlands, which constitute 20 % of a total land area 830,000 km² and wooded savannahs, which cover 64 % do not play the same traditional roles of industrial plantations and timber-rich tropical and montane forests in other parts of Africa. For this reason, this introduction will allude to the description of the various values derived from the woodland resources of Namibia, depicted in Table 1. They indeed support the majority of Namibians directly through the supply of energy, construction materials and the wooded environment itself provides browse and grazing which underpins livestock farming; the mainstay of the rural economy outside the cropping season. In protected areas such as parks, the woodlands are a valuable habitat for game, which is in turn, valuable to the tourism industry. In addition, a number of products and services are also provided. The riverine woodlands along the ephemeral and perennial rivers have immense ecological and economic values and their protection and sustainable use are crucial. Despite these values, the forest sector is intuitively evaluated on the basis of the commercial timber industry alone excluding the values just mentioned. This anomaly is addressed in Table 1, which depicts the values of woody vegetation and should form the basis of future natural resource accounting. The various woodland types and the acacia dominated savannahs are depicted in Annexes 1 and 2. The biomass data provided on the tables area from the ongoing forest inventory, which started in 1996 and should be completed by the year 2002 and collects data on species of shrubs, grasses and other plants as well. In the relatively tall Pterocarpus-Baikiaea dominated woodlands, maximum tree heights can reach 22 meters with a mean of 9 meters on some sites. However, the maximum timber volume is low since only traditionally exploited species; Pterocarpus and Baikiaea are counted. However, substantial quantities of Burkea africana stocks exist that could be utilized, only if the technology of sawing it could be improved and its commercial use promoted. Woody biomass yields from each type range from 13 to 20 tons per hectare. These estimates do not include the grass sward, which on average constitutes about one quarter of the total biomass per hectare in a good year. The use of fuel wood remains the predominant one, followed by domestic construction and fencing of homes and agricultural fields. The arts and crafts sub sector is also a growing industry, which will be strongly supported in the second national development plan period running from the years 2000 to 2004 and is closely linked to tourism and a useful source of self- employment. Virtually all of the biomass energy, arts and crafts and traditional fencing wood can be met from local production in the foreseeable future Likewise, virtually all the industrial timber, paper, panels, except for treated fencing posts are still likely to be met from imports, currently dominated by suppliers from South Africa (See Annex II, Table 3).

Non-wood products include a number of fruits and nuts, medicines and grass, which have considerable economic value but are not traded commercially in significant quantities to earn their place in national accounting systems. Nuts from marula and manketi trees have immediate commercial value for use in the pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries, in addition to their traditional use in local diets. Marula fruit itself can be used to make jam and its juice is already used in the commercial manufacture of liqueur. The fruits of Strychnos and Berchemia enjoy a local market just waiting to be more efficiently exploited by greater promotion, packaging and more intensive plant propagation. Of the medicinal plants, only the devil’s claw (Harpagophytum procumbens) has an international market. Namibia however needs to consider some limited manufacture as opposed to playing the traditional African role of providing raw materials.

Table 1. The estimated economic value of the forest resources of Namibia.

Source: Modified from Forestry Strategic plan of 1996)

Recent studies on the consumption of wood fuels in Namibia produced a daily per capita estimate of consumption of 0.69 kilograms, and the total annual consumption as of 1996 was estimated as 672,331metric tons, worth about N$ 104,099,000 per year. By the year 2020 and at an estimated population of 2.63 million people, the total annual consumption could total 2 million tons per year, considering the current annual population growth rate of 3%. At today’s price this will be worth about N$ 3,000,000 per year. The local consumption of charcoal in Namibia is still limited to the middle to upper income groups and in the hospitality industry. In 1996 the local consumption was estimated to be about 3,000 metric tons and 12,000 metric tons was for export to Europe and South Africa. At a conversion ratio of 5 to 1, this translates to about 75,000 metric tons of raw wood, which is way below Namibia’s export capacity. Charcoal production is very dependent on European markets, in which product certification requirements, could turn out to be a non-tariff trade barrier, and has therefore restricted export volumes, which have the potential to double. However, individual exporters have already engaged certification agencies to assist. In the meantime, an ad hoc Woodland Management Council has been formed. It comprises of three government agencies, producers, exporters and the National Farmers Union, with the objective to uphold and oversee sound management practices. Current estimates suggest that Namibia’s local consumption will increase to 6,000 metric tons per year by 2006. With the possible development of the Kudu Gas Field, the consumption of fuel wood in the urban north may go down as available cheap and environmentally safe natural gas attracts a growing number of affluent Namibians. Currently, the consumption in these towns is high, causing degradation of neighbouring wooded areas. Policies to subsidize long-distance transport of fuel wood from areas of surplus such as Tsumeb and East Ohangwena to the urban north may be called for, especially with the planned construction of the Tsumeb-Oshikango Railway Line.

Consumption of industrial wood and wood products is met virtually from imports. It increased soon after independence, as shown by the spectacular jumps between 1996 to 1998 years (Annex 1). Though the positive trend will be maintained, it is more likely that consumption will stabilize because of the slow growth in the economy. Table 4 shows that consumption of fibreboard doubled between 1995 and 1996 and is still high but declining. Ply wood volumes doubled from 1995 to 1998, and continues to increase, trends in sawn wood volumes are similar, presumably as a result of the recent construction booms. Newsprint imports have also risen steeply but are now stable. The import bill for wood and wood products is high and Namibia is advised to source wood and wood products more widely and competitively from other parts of the SADC Region to reduce costs.

There is local trade in non-timber forest products such as mopane worms, indigenous fruits such as Berchemia discolor and Strychnos species, herbal medicines, thatch grass and palm fronds for weaving. These products may have significant economic value in localised economies but they unfortunately have not been properly assessed. Marula fruit has economic value for its traditional use to make traditional juice and its nut produces oil for cooking but unlike B. discolor, it is normally harvested for domestic use rather than formal trading.

For mopane worms, there is already a local market and in addition, it is rapidly becoming an exotic dish for the curious tourist. However, care must be taken to conserve the remaining pockets of relatively high mopane woodlands, which provide its ideal habitat. It has been reported that mopane worms have virtually disappeared from the now heavily populated regions of Omusati, Oshana and Oshikoto because of habitat loss.

Provided that there is proper quality control and market promotion of the two major indigenous fruits; B. discolor and Strychnos a potential local market exists since there is a growing urban elite with roots from the communal areas.

The objective of this outlook paper for Namibia is to identify opportunities for positive developments in the forest sector that will represent added value and at the same time, enhance its status by virtue of its ecological or environmental values in a country, which has historically downplayed its importance.

In doing this, the trends in the Namibian economy will be analysed, factors such as technological advances, new markets and the like will be taken into consideration before making any suggestions on the likely scenarios for forestry development in Namibia.