Annex 7
THE RELATIONSHIP OF POPULATION AND EDUCATION IN SWAZILAND,
PAPER PRESENTED BY E- DLAMINI,DEMOGRAPHER, PLANNING SECTION,
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION

Introduction

Population figures broken down by sex in Swaziland date as far back as 1898 - a period which follows the arrival of education with missionaries in 1844. Though the earlier figures might not be very accurate to give the effects of population on education or vice versa they will serve to paint a picture in very broad strokes the growth of the school-going age groups.

The Population

In 1898, the population of Swaziland was a mere handful of about 44 000 persons. In 1911, according to the census figures this popula­tion was more than double and in less than a century, i.e. in 1976 the population rose to 495 000 which gives a total growth rate between the two periods of 1 025 percent. The table below gives the figures for each census year.

Table 1

The Population of Swaziland, 1898 - 1976

Source: Censuses 1911 and 1936 C. 50

It is not the purpose of this paper to explain the population figures in detail, but as it can be observed, there is no doubt that the Swaziland poulation is growing very fast and this growth can partly be explained by the fertility and mortality rates.

Fertility Rate

The 1976 census showed a fertility rate of 6.9 which is very high compared to the fertility rates of developed countries of slightly smaller compared to some of the developing countriess e.g. the fertil­ity rate of the United States is 1.8 and that of Kenya is 6.9. The purpose of this comparison is to show that in general the fertility rates of developing countries are higher than those of developed countries. In Swaziland the fertility rate seems to be constant since the 1966 rate is similar to the 1976 rate. Without the 1986 rate it is difficult at the moment to draw a trend so as to see whether it is, in fact constant, declining or increasing but it would be wrong to as­sume that the 1986 rate will be lower than that of the previous cen­suses given that in developing countries in general, fertility rates are high and constant.

Mortality Rate

In 1976, the infant mortality was estimated at 156 in Swaziland, and the World Bank estimate shows that it is now 120. This reduction in infant mortality is attributed to the reduction of major epidemic diseases, the control of endemic diseases and the gradual improvement of general health and living conditions. The decline can also be attributed to education itself because it makes it people to be aware of health facilities made available to them. However, this combina­tion of high fertility and falling mortality gives rise to population growth and hence it can be inferred that the present 3.4 percent annual rate of natural increase in Swaziland is because of these two factors. A growth rate of 3.4 percent, among the highest in the world, implies that by the year 2000 the population of Swaziland will be about one million.

Child Dependency

The structure of the population of Swaziland shows a broad base with a high proportion of children agend below 15 years making about 48 percent and about 2 percent is above the age of 65 years. This dependency ration seems to be rising because at independence the ratio was 32 percent. Interpreted in absolute terms it means in Swaziland there is a high dependency ratio of approximately one adult (in the economically productive ages) for one dependent child. This has serious implications on education and other social services.

Education

In 1968, the total population -of school going age, i.e. 6-12 years, (primary level) was 85 000 and 18 years later, i.e. 1986, the population at this level was 138 000, an increase of about 62 percent. The 13-17 years population for secondary school education was 46 000 in 1968 and 76 000 in 1986. Within the same period actual enrolments at primary were 62 000 and 142 000 and at secondary level they were 6 000 and 31 000 with gross enrolment ratios of 73.1 and 103.2; 13.2 and 40.2 respectively. Although there is no data available for uni­versity and other post secondary institutions for 1968, it is interesting to note that university education expanded from 700 in 1977/78 to 1300 in the 1986/87 academic year, and a closer examination of the available data shows an average annual rate of growth of 6 per­cent.

Swaziland's demographic growth rate has put considerable pressure on the economic resources of the nation, especially on those allocated to education. The aggregate figures on schools enrolments and teachers do not indicate the deree to which expansion of the school system is responding to the demographic expansion. A more appropriate indicator of this relationship is the net intake of enrolments in grade 1 of primary schools. This indicator specifies how many boys and girls enter school for the first time. In 1975, the net intake in grade 1 was 15 970 and in 1985 it was 23 078 which gives anaverage annual increase of 3.8 percent. However, large variations in the annual growth rates are discernible.

The net intake indicates that for most of the years the growth rate has been superior to demographic expansion. But this indicator also is inadequate because it does not distinguish the ages of child­ren who enter school for the first time. It measures the number of school places that are available for new school entrants in a given year irrespective of their age.

The net intake in grade 1 of primary schools (23 078) in 1985 is superior to the estimated total population aged 6 (22 044), and thus theoretically it would be possible to cater to the demographic growth. But in reality, the problems of late starters, over-aged children and repeaters related to the inefficient functioning of the school system tend to limit the places that might potentially be available for all children aged six.

The net intake in the school system has consequently to be com­ pared with age specific enrolment ratios to convey a more exact idea of the pace at which schooling facilities are keeping in line with demographic growth (see Appendix 1).

In 1985, the gross enrolment ratio in primary schools was 105.6 percent. Girls appear to enjoy equal access to schooling as boys since their ratios are only slightly lower (103.8 percent) compared to those of boys (107.4 percent).

The net enrolment ratio (which takes into account only children in the age group 6-13 at school and compares them to the total population in their age group), indicates that only 81.9 percent of primary school age children are at school. There is little variation between the rates of girls (83.4 percent) and boys (80.4 percent).

Since the prescribed legal age for entry into primary schools is 6, the enrolment of children in this age group will give us a more exact assessment of the relationship between schooling facilities and demographic growth. Only 53.2 percent of six-year old children are enrolled at school, the rate being slightly higher for girls (53.2 percent) than for boys (50.9 percent) (see Appendix 2).

There is a significant rise in the enrolment ratio of children aged 7, with 74,5 percent of this age group at school. The ratio rises to a maximum of 97 percent for children aged 9 and 10 and then declines steadily. The turning point appears to be age 12, where the ratios fall drastically from 92.1 percent to 78 percent at age 13, The ratios of girls tend to be higher than those of boys up to age 13, attaining the highest level (98.9 percent) at age 10. After the age of 13 the decline in the ratios of girls is more significant than that of the boys.

In the age group 6-12, a total of 22 991 are out of school, the: number of boys (12 530) being slightly higher than that of girls. It is more difficult to assess the children out of school between the ages of 16-17 since the analysis is based on enrolments in primary and secondary schools. In all, an estimated 45 845 children between 6 and 17 are out of primary and secondary schools.

The Interaction of Population and Education

As has already been indicated, an increase in the population affects the education system in terms of quantitative expansion, in terms of recurrent and capital costs as well as the curriculum itself and the general quality of education. The table below shows how the rapid increase in population in Swaziland has affected enrolments.

Table 2

Enrolments at Primary and Secondary Level 1968-1986

Source: Education Statistics in Brief,1986

It is clear that with current high levels of fertility combined with declines in mortality the school-going age groups will be growing very rapidly and that their share of the total population will be rising slightly above its current level. According to Gavin Jones (1975), this phenomenon in the developing countries will remain un­changed until the 1980's and will decline around the year 2 000 because the school-age population will be reaching its maximum rate of growth.

The effect of this growth in enrolments is now being felt due to population growth that by Government in the sense only employing 1 627 teachers while in 1968 it was 300 at at primary and the teachers at primary rose to 4 290 and to secondary, in 1986 1 617 at recurrent and capital cost implications of heavy burden to secondary. The this expansion is a very government.

Since 1968 the education system has been affected twice now. In 1972 Swaziland witnessed the declaration of Universal Primary Educa­tion (UPE) and in 1985 the declaration of curriculum diversification. It can be argued that these declarations can be made even when the population is stagnating. But it is all happening because population pressures seek more school places and jobs after schooling, hence the curriculum has to provide useable skills. These officials goals can only be achieved if financial resource are in abundance, but in most cases these resources are scarce.

Conclusion

So far it is obvious how the population can dictate terms on education, but it is not very clear how education can do the same on population. It would seem, therefore, that unless population edu­cation is introduced into the curriculum both in formal and non-formal education it will be difficult to curb the rampant rate of population growth.

Appendix 1

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Enrolment Ratios* in Primary and Secondary Schools by Sex, 1985

* Gross ratio: Total enrolments in all grades at a given level,divided by total population in the prescribed age group for that level.

Net ratio: Enrolments within the prescribed age group for the given level, divided by total population in the prescribed age group for that level.

Appendix 2

Table 6

Net Enrolment Ratios by Age and Sex in Primary and Secondary Schools, 1985%