EU (1 August)
Cereal output is forecast to fall in the EU this year following reduced plantings and lower yield prospects because of exceptionally hot and dry weather in several main producing areas. FAO’s latest estimate of the EU’s aggregate wheat crop now stands at about 94 million tonnes, 10 percent down from last year and 7 percent below the average of the past 5 years. The largest reduction at the national level has occurred in France where a significant area reduction compounded with a sharp yield decrease has seen production drop to just about 32.7 million tonnes, from almost 39 million tonnes in 2002. Among the other main wheat producers, output is forecast to decline by about 6 percent in Germany, 13 percent in Italy, 5 percent in Spain and 12 percent in the United Kingdom. Regarding the coarse grains, contrary to earlier expectations, the latest forecast for the EU’s aggregate crop also points to a significant decline, by about 10 percent, to about 97 million tonnes. Barley crops are already gathered in many parts and lower yields have been noted, while the developing maize crops have been stressed by exceptionally hot and dry conditions in June and July. Prospects could still improve for some of the maize crops if rains arrive in the remainder of the growing season but a significant reduction from last year’s relatively good crop is very likely.