JOINT SESSION
Geneva, Switzerland, 5 - 9 October 2004
(Item 4 of the provisional agenda)
Note by the secretariat
BACKGROUND
1. One of the roles of both the Timber Committee and the European Forestry Commission is to act as a forum for discussion of major current policy issues, based on the analysis carried out under the integrated programme. This both brings the results of the analysis to the attention of policy makers and advisers, and helps to orient future analytical work. This policy forum should also contribute to the objectives of the two organisations (UNECE and FAO). It may also identify activities which should be undertaken by UNECE/FAO.
2. In 2003 and 2004, UNECE Principal Subsidiary Bodies (PSBs) have held a series of policy forums on “A wider Europe” in the areas of competence of each PSB, focused on the consequences of the enlargement of the EU for Europe as whole. The Timber Committee is invited to contribute to this process, by examining the outlook for a wider Europe in the field of forest and forest products.
3. The European Forest Sector Outlook Study (EFSOS), at present near completion, identifies the main features of the outlook for the sector to 2020 and draws the attention of policy makers and their advisers to a number of issues. The main conclusions of EFSOS will be circulated to delegates in advance of the session, and should provide a common reference frameworks for the policy discussion.
4. It is proposed that the time available be distributes follows:
• Presentation of EFSOS analysis and results (30 minutes)
• Regional perspectives (speakers from different subregions, including EU/EFTA, CIS, Other Europe, North America) (60 minutes)
• Stakeholder perspectives (speakers from industry, NGOs, labour, forest owners)
(30 minutes)
• General debate (60 minutes)
5. The secretariat is contacting potential speakers from regions and stakeholders. For the general debate, speakers may, of course, address any long-term challenges, and their response to them. However, they are invited to focus on some of the following questions arising out of the EFSOS analysis, addressing each from the perspective of their country or organisation:
• How will your country react to the forecast shift in balance of the forest and timber sector to the east?
• What will be the consequences of the enlargement of the EU in the forest and timber sector?
• How is the cross sectoral dimension addressed at the national policy level, and will this result in shifts in policy (for the sector or for others)?
• What measures, if any, are being undertaken to promote the sound and competitive use of wood?
• Are changes expected in forest management practice in the light of the changing outlook?
• What is the outlook for wood energy?
• Will climate change mitigation or the Kyoto Protocol commitments change forest sector practice?
6. It is acknowledged that most major issues are interlinked to some extent, especially in the long-term perspective, so that it is difficult to isolate consideration of the various issues. However, speakers are invited, in the interests of efficient use of meeting time, to avoid duplicating their interventions under other agenda items, notably illegal logging (Wednesday afternoon), the international forest dialogue (Thursday morning) and market related policies, including certification (Tuesday).
ANNEX
MAJOR CONCLUSIONS OF EFSOS STUDY
The conclusions and implications of the results of the EFSOS study are set-out below. They have been grouped under four main headings (processed products, roundwood, sustainability and policy) and are followed by what are considered some of the most important conclusions for policymakers in the region. The presentation here is brief (bullet-points) and these points will be elaborated in the presentation during the meeting.
Markets for processed products
Conclusions
• The highest rates of market growth will occur in the East (CEEC and CIS), particularly in the sawnwood sector.
• By 2020, over half of Europe's sawnwood will be produced in the East (CEEC and CIS).
• Western Europe (EU/EFTA) will remain the main European market for wood based panels and paper.
• Wood based panels will continue to gain a greater share of the solid wood products market.
• Production will increase faster than consumption in many regions and product sectors leading to increased exports.
Implications
• Competitiveness in international markets will be crucial for the future of the forest processing sector in Europe.
• Western Europe is likely to focus on improved marketing, innovation and technology to remain competitive. This will require improvements in skills and research.
• CEEC and CIS countries can compete on low labour and raw material costs - but for how long?
• The potential to develop the forest sector in the East is huge, but this will also need investment in technology and training. Such development will require continued efforts to improve the investment climate.
Roundwood markets
Conclusions
• Roundwood production and consumption will increase most in the East, for all types of roundwood.
• The highest growth will occur in the Russian Federation, where exports will continue to expand.
• Demand for roundwood in Western Europe will continue to shift towards smaller sized roundwood.
• Further increases in demand may occur due to renewable energy policies.
• Some of the demand growth in Western Europe will be satisfied by increased use of residues and recycled fibre.
Implications
• Downward pressure on roundwood prices in Europe may continue, particularly for sawlogs.
• Low roundwood prices reduce the economic viability of sustainable forest management.
• There is a need to expand the markets for wood products to improve the viability of sustainable forest management.
• Rotation ages may become shorter as large trees become relatively less valuable. However, large trees will be valued more for their appearance than their wood properties.
• Forest management may become increasingly specialised, depending on location and management objectives.
Sustainability of the forestry sector
Conclusions
• In most countries, projected increases in roundwood production will not exceed NAI. However, other aspects of forest sustainability may be more of a concern. For instance, employment will decline everywhere.
• Measures to improve competitiveness may compromise the production of some non-wood outputs and appear to contradict the traditional objective of "multifunctionality".
• The forest sector has the potential to make a much larger contribution to broader sustainable development goals.
Implications
• Some non-wood outputs will become commercialised. The continued production of others may need financial support.
• From the perspective of sustainable development, wood has many desirable characteristics. However, public perception of wood products is sometimes unfavourable.
• A concerted effort is needed to promote the use of forest products.
Future policy environment
Conclusions
• Society will continue to place many demands on the forest sector, but the capacity of the sector to meet some of these demands will be constrained.
• Policies outside the forest sector often have a huge impact on the sector and are not always supportive.
• The forest sector is increasingly marginalised in policy debates within countries.
Implications
• The forest sector is fragmented and should speak with one voice if it is to be heard in broader policy debates.
• This requires improved consultation within governments between forestry policymakers and policymakers in other sectors (e.g. environment, agriculture, energy, industry).
• This would also benefit from greater collaboration between countries and across different stakeholder groups.
Most important conclusions for policymakers
Forestry policymakers should stress how the sector can contribute to solving some of the major concerns of society:
1. The forest sector can contribute to biodiversity conservation with significant increases in protected areas, provided it is adequately funded.
2. The forest sector can make a significant contribution to the goals of renewable energy policy and all stakeholders should consider the best way to do this.
3. Forestry policymakers (supported by all stakeholders) should speak out in favour of the promotion of sustainably produced wood products.