BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION
| 2000/2001 |
2001/2002 |
2002/2003 |
2003/2004 estimate |
2004/2005 forecast |
Change 2004/05 over 2003/2004 |
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/ | (million tonnes) | (percentage) | Wheat | 585.9 | 588.4 | 569.4 | 560.0 | 620.4 | 10.8 | Coarse grains | 876.7 | 919.5 | 879.9 | 933.6 | 1 013.1 | 8.5 | Rice, milled | 401.0 | 400.9 | 382.1 | 389.4 | 408.2 | 4.8 | (paddy) | (599.7) | (599.6) | (571.9) | (583.2) | (610.6) | 4.7 |
All cereals (incl. milled rice) |
1 863.6 |
1 908.7 |
1 831.5 |
1 883.0 |
2 041.6 |
8.4 | Developing countries | 1 009.2 | 1 029.2 | 998.1 | 1 045.4 | 1 076.2 | 3.0 | Developed countries | 854.5 | 879.5 | 833.3 | 837.6 | 965.4 | 15.3 |
WORLD TRADE 2/ | | | | | | | Wheat | 100.9 | 109.6 | 108.6 | 103.0 | 100.5 | - 3/ | Coarse grains | 108.4 | 105.4 | 106.9 | 106.0 | 102.5 | - 3/ | Rice (milled) | 24.2 | 28.1 | 27.7 | 26.1 | 25.2 | - 3/ |
All cereals |
233.5 |
243.1 |
243.2 |
235.1 |
228.2 |
- 3/ | of which: Food aid shipments 4/ | 8.9 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 7.4 | | |
WORLD UTILIZATION | | | | | | | Wheat | 589.2 | 598.8 | 604.0 | 600.4 | 614.4 | 2.3 | Coarse grains | 904.3 | 925.0 | 917.5 | 948.3 | 976.8 | 3.0 | Rice (milled) | 402.8 | 404.6 | 406.1 | 406.9 | 412.2 | 1.3 |
All cereals |
1 896.4 |
1 928.4 |
1 927.6 |
1 955.6 |
2 003.5 |
2.4 | Developing countries | 1 144.9 | 1 163.0 | 1 164.3 | 1 189.0 | 1 200.5 | 1.0 | Developed countries | 751.5 | 765.4 | 763.3 | 766.6 | 802.9 | 4.7 |
Per Caput Food Use | (kg/year) | | Developing countries | 160.2 | 160.0 | 158.4 | 159.3 | 158.9 | -0.2 | Developed countries | 132.1 | 131.8 | 131.3 | 131.0 | 130.9 | -0.1 |
WORLD STOCKS 5/ | (million tonnes) | | Wheat | 243.7 | 235.3 | 202.2 | 159.2 | 161.4 | 1.4 | Coarse grains | 207.7 | 197.4 | 162.8 | 147.3 | 180.7 | 22.6 | Rice (milled) | 148.7 | 142.4 | 118.5 | 102.9 | 98.8 | -4.0 |
All cereals |
600.1 |
575.1 |
483.5 |
409.4 |
440.8 |
7.7 | Developing countries | 438.6 | 406.3 | 339.1 | 286.7 | 275.3 | -4.0 | Developed countries | 161.4 | 168.8 | 144.5 | 122.8 | 165.6 | 34.9 |
EXPORT PRICES 4/ | (US$/tonne) | | Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/ | 207 | 177 | 197 | 201 | 241 6/ | 19.9 7/ | Wheat (U.S. No.2 HRW) | 128 | 127 | 161 | 161 | 155 8/ | 2.6 7/ | Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow) | 86 | 90 | 107 | 114 | 99 8/ | -3.9 7/ |
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 4/ | | | | | | | From U.S. Gulf to Egypt | 15.0 | 15.0 | 16.7 | 37.0 | 45.8 8/ | 117.5 7/ |
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 9/ | (million tonnes) | |
Roots & tubers production 1/ | 449.9 | 445.8 | 447.0 | 448.3 | 448.7 | 0.1 |
Cereal production (milled rice) 1/ | 781.6 | 788.2 | 768.0 | 787.5 | 817.4 | 3.8 |
Per caput production (kg.) 10/ | 203.6 | 202.4 | 194.5 | 196.6 | 201.3 | 2.4 |
Cereal imports 2/ | 76.5 | 82.0 | 80.9 | 77.1 | 85.5 | 10.9 |
of which: Food aid deliveries 4/ | 7.7 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.1 | | |
Proportion of cereal import | (percentage) | |
covered by food aid | 10.1 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 7.9 | | | | | | | | | |
Source: FAO Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown. 2/ For wheat and coarse grains, trade refers to exports based on the July/June marketing season. For rice, trade refers to exports based on the calendar year of the second year shown. Totals include EU-15 up to 2003/04 and EU-25 in 2004/05. 3/ World trade in 2004/05 not comparable with 2003/04 because of the increase in the EU membership in 2004/05 causing some previously “international” trade to become EU “intra-trade”. 4/ July/June. 5/ Stock data are based on an aggregate of individual country carryovers at the end of national crop years and, therefore, do not represent world stock levels at any point in time. 6/ Average of quotations for January-November 2004. 7/ Change from the corresponding period of the previous year, for which figures are not shown. 8/ Average of quotations for July-November 2004. 9/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. US$1 415 in 2002). 10/ Including milled rice.
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