EU (11 October)
Latest estimates put the EU’s aggregate cereal output in 2005 at about 255 million tonnes, about 13 percent down from last year’s bumper crop, and about 3 percent below the average of the past five years. Of the total, wheat is estimated to account for some 123 million tonnes, 10 percent down from 2004. The reduction is largely a result of a return to normal yields throughout the region after exceptionally good levels last year under near optimum conditions. Although crops in the Iberian Peninsula were devastated by drought, these countries account for only a relatively small proportion of the EU total so the impact of this was minimal at the regional level. However, regarding durum wheat specifically, which traditionally accounts for about 8 percent of the total wheat crop, the decline in output this year is much more marked. Plantings were reduced sharply in Spain and Italy, two of the main producers, and these and the other durum producing countries were also among the worst hit by the drought. The EU’s total durum crop is estimated to be just over 7 million tonnes compared to the record of almost 12 million tonnes last year. The small coarse grain crops have mostly been harvested under favourable conditions, but with both area and yield down compared to last year, a significant cut in production is expected by 15 percent for barley, 22 percent for rye and about 11 percent for oats. Furthermore heavy summer rainfall in some parts, particularly in Germany, has reduced considerably the quality of this year’s crops. As for maize, the bulk of the crop has still to be gathered. Summer drought has reduced yields of the region’s main crops in France, Italy and Spain. Although the drought has been quite devastating at the local level in some countries, particularly in Spain and Portugal, the overall impact is not as great as with the more widespread drought in 2003.
The winter cereal crops for harvest in 2006 are already mostly planted and germinated in northern parts of the EU, where topsoil moisture for establishment has been generally adequate. In the eastern countries, widespread rain showers in late September and early October continued to be of some benefit to the late summer crops, still immature in some parts, but hampered fieldwork for autumn planting. In southern parts, prevailing dry weather in the past few weeks has aided summer crop harvesting and field preparation for winter crop planting but good rains are needed in the drought-plagued Iberian Peninsula to replenish depleted moisture supplies for the upcoming winter grain planting.