Statistical Appendix
| |
Average |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 | | |
1999/00 | | | | | Forecast as of | | |
2003/04 | | | | |
Oct. |
Nov. | | 1. Ratio of World Stocks to Utilization | | | | | | | | |
Wheat | 36.3 | 33.7 | 26.0 | 28.2 | 28.1 | 24.1 | 23.2 | |
Coarse Grains | 20.3 | 17.0 | 15.1 | 19.3 | 18.6 | 16.2 | 14.9 | |
Rice | 33.0 | 29.2 | 25.5 | 23.8 | 25.0 | 24.8 | 24.4 | |
Cereals (total) | 27.9 | 24.7 | 20.5 | 22.9 | 22.8 | 20.4 | 19.4 | | | | | | | | | | | 2. Ratio of Five Major Grain Exporters | | | | | | | | |
Supplies to Normal Market Requirements | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | | | | | | | | | | |
3. Closing Stocks as a percentage of | | | | | | | | |
Total Disappearance of Major Exporters | | | | | | | | |
Wheat | 20.4 | 18.6 | 17.0 | 21.7 | 23.1 | 15.2 | 13.8 | |
Coarse Grains | 15.0 | 13.1 | 10.8 | 19.0 | 17.7 | 12.8 | 10.5 | |
Rice | 21.6 | 15.7 | 15.9 | 13.2 | 15.7 | 16.3 | 15.0 | |
Cereals (total) | 19.0 | 15.8 | 14.5 | 18.0 | 18.8 | 14.7 | 13.1 | | | | | | | | | | | |
Annual Trend |
Percentage Change from Previous Year | | |
Growth Rate | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1996-2005 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 | | | | | | | | Forecast as of | | | | | | | |
Oct. |
Nov. | |
4. Changes in World Cereal Production | 0.9 | -3.8 | 3.4 | 9.2 | -1.2 | -1.6 | -2.7 | | | | | | | | | | |
5. Changes in Cereal Production | | | | | | | | |
In the LIFDCs | 0.7 | -2.0 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 | | | | | | | | | | |
6. Changes in Cereal Production in | | | | | | | | |
LIFDCs less China and India | 2.3 | 2.9 | 8.4 | -0.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 3.5 | | | | | | | | | | | |
Average |
Percentage Change from Previous Year | | |
1999/00 | | | | | | | | |
2003/04 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 | | | | | | | | Forecast as of | |
7. Selected Cereal Price Indices: | | | | | |
Oct. |
Nov. | |
Wheat (July/June) | 105.7 | 21.3 | -1.1 | -1.0 | 5.2 | 16.8 | 18.7 | |
Maize (July/June) | 98.8 | 18.6 | 7.1 | -15.2 | 6.4 | 17.8 | 26.1 | |
Rice (Jan/Dec) | 83.1 | -3.9 | 14.7 | 26.7 | -1.0 | 4.7 | 5.2 |
Notes:
Utilization is defined as the sum of food use, feed and other uses.
Cereals refer to wheat, coarse grains and rice; Grains refer to wheat and coarse grains.
Major Grain Exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, and the United States; Major Rice Exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand,
States, and Viet Nam.
Normal Market Requirements for major grain exporters are defined as the average of domestic utilization plus exports in the three preceding seasons.
Disappearance is defined as domestic utilization plus exports for any given season.
Price indices The wheat price index has been constructed based on the IGC wheat price index, rebased to
July/June 1997/98-1999/00 = 100; For maize, the U.S. maize No. 2 Yellow (delivered U.S. Gulf ports) with base July/June, 1997/98-1999/00 = 100;
For rice, the FAO Rice Price Index, 1998-2000=100, is based on 16 rice export quotations. For 2006/07, all price indices are calculated based on average selected prices from the beginning of the seasons up to Nov 2006. Rice index refers to the first year shown.
| ,1,4,8,12,*,1,> |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006
estimate |
2007
forecast | |
TOTAL CEREALS |
575.8 |
484.5 |
415.8 |
467.7 |
469.0 |
402.9 | |
Wheat |
237.1 |
202.6 |
160.7 |
175.5 |
174.7 |
147.0 | | held by: | | | | | | | | - main exporters 2 | 49.0 | 39.1 | 38.5 | 55.0 | 58.0 | 34.5 | | - others | 188.1 | 163.5 | 122.2 | 120.5 | 116.6 | 112.5 | |
Coarse Grains |
195.9 |
162.5 |
149.6 |
193.0 |
189.0 |
151.2 | | held by: | | | | | | | | - main exporters2 | 70.3 | 55.3 | 48.5 | 93.8 | 90.2 | 53.5 | | - others | 125.6 | 107.2 | 101.1 | 99.2 | 98.8 | 97.7 | |
Rice (milled basis) |
142.8 |
119.4 |
105.4 |
99.2 |
105.3 |
104.7 | | held by: | | | | | | | | - main exporters2 | 36.3 | 21.7 | 22.5 | 18.9 | 22.7 | 22.1 | | - others | 106.6 | 97.7 | 82.9 | 80.3 | 82.6 | 82.6 | |
Developed Countries |
169.9 |
145.2 |
123.5 |
190.4 |
189.8 |
122.8 | | Australia | 10.2 | 5.2 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 16.1 | 4.5 | | European Union 3 | 31.1 | 33.7 | 21.5 | 48.8 | 43.8 | 32.8 | | Canada | 10.3 | 8.9 | 10.3 | 14.5 | 16.3 | 11.5 | | Hungary 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | - | - | - | | Japan | 5.7 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.1 | | Poland 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.4 | - | - | - | | Romania | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | | Russian Federation | 13.5 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 8.5 | | South Africa | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | | Ukraine | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | | United States | 67.4 | 45.1 | 44.4 | 74.7 | 71.8 | 39.7 | |
Developing Countries |
405.9 |
339.3 |
292.3 |
277.4 |
279.2 |
280.2 | |
Asia |
368.3 |
306.6 |
251.8 |
233.9 |
237.1 |
239.5 | | China | 248.5 | 209.1 | 162.9 | 152.0 | 152.8 | 156.2 | | India | 61.2 | 39.8 | 32.9 | 26.7 | 25.6 | 27.6 | | Indonesia | 5.0 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.0 | | Iran (Islamic Republic of) | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.1 | | Korea, Republic of | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | | Pakistan | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 3.5 | | Philippines | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.9 | | Syria | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | | Turkey | 7.7 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 3.9 | |
Africa |
20.7 |
18.7 |
21.5 |
23.6 |
26.3 |
27.2 | | Algeria | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.7 | | Egypt | 4.1 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | | Ethiopia | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | | Morocco | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | | Nigeria | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | | Tunisia | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | |
Central America |
6.8 |
5.6 |
5.9 |
6.8 |
5.2 |
4.8 | | Mexico | 4.7 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 3.2 | |
South America |
9.8 |
8.1 |
12.8 |
12.8 |
10.4 |
8.5 | | Argentina | 2.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | | Brazil | 3.8 | 1.6 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 3.3 |
1Stock data are based on an aggregate of carryovers at the end of national crop years and do not represent world stock levels at any point in time.
2The major wheat and coarse grains exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU and the United States. The major rice exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States and Viet Nam.
3Up to 2004 15 member countries, from 2005 25 member countries.
4From 2005 included in EU 25.
Note: Based on official and unofficial estimates. Totals computed from unrounded data.
|
November 2006 
