Full cooperation was received from the Government's Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Animal Wealth (MANRAW) and from the Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC) at both federal and state levels, and from other concerned Ministries and parastatal organizations. In addition, the Mission consulted with all the main bilateral and multilateral organizations, and with NGO representations. Information on cropped areas and anticipated production was obtained at state level, with mod ifications by the Mission from field inspections, discussions with farmers and data on rainfall, pest and weed incidence, input supplies and prices.
The Mission forecasts the 1995 harvest of sorghum and millet at 3.31 million tons, some 26 percent below last year's exceptional crop but 2 percent above the benchmark 5-year average of 1988/89-1992/93. This 1995 forecast includes new information o n production from the southern states which suggests under-reporting in earlier years. Allowing for this discontinuity in the series, the 1995 sorghum and millet crop is very close to the 1988/89-1992/93 average. Compared with last year, sorghum pr oduction will be down by 12 percent, mainly due to drops in planted area in both the mechanized and irrigated sectors. In the case of millet, production will be 46 percent less than last year's record crop, with millet area down by 18 percent and y ields down by 33 percent.
Smaller plantings of both cereals were due to economic factors (less profitable production compared with cash crops, and reduced availability of credit), poor rains at the start of the season and early damage by grasshoppers and rodents. The irriga ted sorghum area was also affected by a change in the crop rotation in some schemes. Yields of all crops were affected by poor mid-season rains, pest damage and more weed competition than normal, partly due to reduced weeding as a means of saving o n production costs. On the other hand, many crops benefited from greater use of improved varieties and from favourable September rains. Irrigated crops have generally yielded well, whilst the mechanized sector has achieved slightly below-normal yie lds. Traditional crop yields were well down on last year, although close to the long term average.
Stocks of both sorghum and millet are lower than expected following the 1994/95 bumper harvest due to higher than normal consumption and exports and a revised sorghum production estimate. With a reduced crop expected for 1995/96, supplies will be tight. This is already reflected in high prices for both cereals which reached record levels in the pre-harvest period of October 1995. Since then there has been some easing of prices but renewed rises are expected early in 1996. The harvest is gen erally late due to heavy replantings caused by pest damage and early rain failures.
By contrast, preparations for the coming wheat crop are well advanced, with an area of 318 000 hectares expected to be planted by mid-December (up 14 percent on 1994/95 and slightly ahead of the long term average). Although there may be some local shortages of fertilizers, the early plantings of wheat are expected to produce average yields, given a normal season. The Mission's tentative forecast for wheat is 0.53 million tons, some 19 percent higher than last year and 2 percent up from the 1 988/89-1992/93 average.
This would put national production of all cereals in 1995/96 at 3.85 million tons, 22 percent down from last year or 2 percent higher than the 5-year average. Bearing in mind the increasing population (consuming an incremental 100 000 tons annually ), supplies are likely to be adequate but tight overall. There will be no capacity for exports in 1996, and seed and feed usage is expected to fall compared with last year. Allowing for a 73 000 ton drawdown in private stocks, imports of 519 000 to ns of cereals are required to achieve normal consumption, 11 percent more than last year's imports. Considering the Sudanese economy and its trade deficit, there are concerns about the country's ability to finance such an import level, given the hi gh world prices for wheat. Some 441 000 tons of imports are tentatively forecast on commercial terms in 1995/96.
A total of 61 396 tons of emergency food aid (48 938 tons of cereals and 12 458 tons of non-cereal foods) will be required for a maximum of some 2 122 000 persons for 1996. The beneficiaries include war-affected and displaced people in the northern sector, the transitional zones and the southern sector; populations along the north-south river and rail corridors whose access to food is likely to be impaired due to the shifting activities of the on-going civil war, and, women and children enro lled in supplementary feeding programmes. Whereas no additional food contributions were required in 1995 due to significant carryover stocks, a quantity of 27 451 tons (24 137 tons of cereals and 3 314 tons of non-cereal food) will be necessary for 1996. International assistance will continue to be required to support the logistics of moving commodities and the initiatives to improve the quality of assessment, monitoring and accountability.
Cereal production will be particularly low in North and West Kordofan and North Darfur and these states will experience severe deficits which must be met from other surplus states. Although the current high livestock numbers, good pastures and reas onable livestock prices suggest that populations should be able to purchase cereals in these three states, the situation should be carefully monitored. If the terms of trade between livestock and cereals deteriorate, assistance may be needed to su pport the movement of grain from surplus areas to the west. Nearly 500 000 tons of cereal transfers into these three deficit states will be necessary for the populations to achieve normal consumption in 1995/96 before allowing for any depletion of stocks.
There will also be food deficits in the South, despite reasonable crops in some states. However these deficits are unlikely to be met by the commercial sector due to the high cost and limited availability of transportation, and the limited purchasi ng power of the population.
On the other hand, more improved seed was used than ever before, particularly in the irrigated sector. During the season, the rainfall pattern was highly variable between regions but, generally, amounts were below last year's good rains, although w ell distributed. Weed competition has been severe, especially in mechanized sorghum, and grasshoppers have continued to damage the crop, together with sorghum midge late in the season. Most crops are late, with less than half the sorghum and millet crop cut at the time of the Mission's visit. Final yields will be drastically below last year in the case of millet but close to last year for sorghum. Compared to the 5-year benchmark average (1988/89-1992/93), 1995 yields are similar for millet and 15 percent lower for sorghum. Irrigated sorghum production will be 21 percent lower than 1994 due to the reduced area, but only 5 percent lower than the 5-year benchmark. Mechanized sorghum production (half of the total volume produced) is 25 p ercent down on last year because of the smaller areas planted, and 26 percent lower than the 5-year average. The biggest change however is in the traditional sector which enjoyed a record year in 1994. Traditional millet production is down 46 perce nt and traditional sorghum down 12 percent compared with last year, although the output is still higher than the 5-year average.
Overall, millet and sorghum production is forecast at 3.314 million tons -- 26 percent less than in 1994 but 2 percent more than the benchmark 5-year average. This includes new estimates of cereal production from the southern states which suggest a degree of under-reporting in the past. This statistical effect amounts to nearly 100 000 tons which, if eliminated, would imply a total crop very close to the 5-year average.
Land preparation for wheat, to be harvested in March/April 1996, is more advanced than usual due to strong price incentives (reflecting world prices) and efforts by Government to encourage planting in the irrigated areas. By mid-December, it is exp ected that 318 000 hectares will be planted, some 14 percent up on last year but not a record. Despite some limits on fertilizer supplies and a lower water table along the Nile, the early planting is expected to boost yields, given an average seaso n without abnormally high temperatures. On this basis, the Mission has tentatively forecast wheat production for 1995/96 at 0.531 million tons, 2 percent up on the 5-year average but still below the record 1991/92.
Total cereal production for 1995/96 is therefore forecast at 3.855 million tons, some 2 percent higher than the 5-year average or similar to this average if allowance is made for new approaches to estimating production from the South.
Table 1 shows the Mission's forecast of crop production by state and sector with 1994/95 comparisons and Table 2 indicates the longer time series.
Sorghum 1/ | Millet | Wheat | Total grains 1/ | 95/96 over 94/95 (%) | |||||
94/95 | 95/96 | 94/95 | 95/96 | 94/95 | 95/96 | 94/95 | 95/96 | ||
Irrigated | |||||||||
Northern | 14 | 15 | 114 | 145 | 128 | 160 | 26 | ||
Nile | 70 | 47 | 42 | 68 | 112 | 115 | 3 | ||
Blue Nile | 20 | 29 | 20 | 29 | 43 | ||||
White Nile | 36 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 51 | 37 | -27 | ||
Gezira and Menagil | 327 | 315 | 230 | 240 | 557 | 555 | 0 | ||
Rahad | 63 | 56 | 21 | 24 | 84 | 80 | -4 | ||
Suki | 18 | 13 | 18 | 13 | -27 | ||||
New Halfa | 35 | 25 | 23 | 39 | 58 | 63 | 8 | ||
Gash | 62 | 27 | 62 | 27 | -57 | ||||
Tokar | 9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | -45 | ||
Khartoum | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -41 | ||||
Kassala (other) | 60 | 4 | 60 | 4 | -93 | ||||
'Total irrigated production | 715 | 562 | 2 | 2 | 445 | 527 | 1 162 | 1 091 | -6 |
Total harvested area (000 ha) | 484 | 328 | 4 | 3 | 275 | 314 | 764 | 645 | -16 |
Mechanized rainfed | |||||||||
Kassala | 18 | 93 | 18 | 93 | 431 | ||||
Gedaref | 916 | 518 | 4 | 5 | 920 | 523 | -43 | ||
Damazin | 129 | 122 | 1 | 3 | 130 | 124 | -5 | ||
Sennar | 432 | 405 | 1 | 1 | 433 | 406 | -6 | ||
White Nile | 250 | 201 | 3 | 1 | 253 | 202 | -20 | ||
South Kordofan | 121 | 62 | 1 | 1 | 122 | 63 | -48 | ||
Upper Nile | 68 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 41 | -40 | ||
South Darfur | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 170 | ||||
Total mechanized | 1 935 1 | 444 | 10 | 11 | 1 945 | 1 456 | -25 | ||
Total harvested area (000 ha) | 3 953 3 | 35 | 32 | 30 | 3 985 | 3 064 | -23 | ||
Traditional rainfed | |||||||||
Gezira | 227 | 108 | 227 | 108 | -52 | ||||
Blue Nile | 32 | 54 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 55 | 65 | ||
Sennar | 7 | 45 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 60 | 514 | ||
White Nile | 56 | 58 | 4 | 2 | 60 | 60 | 0 | ||
Kassala | 18 | 26 | 18 | 26 | 45 | ||||
Nile | 18 | 32 | 18 | 32 | 80 | ||||
North Kordofan | 52 | 14 | 193 | 15 | 245 | 29 | -88 | ||
South Kordofan | 123 | 61 | 53 | 32 | 176 | 93 | -47 | ||
West Kordofan | 69 | 29 | 169 | 10 | 238 | 39 | -84 | ||
North Darfur | 15 | 0 | 180 | 16 | 195 | 16 | -92 | ||
South Darfur | 121 | 99 | 234 | 30 | 6 2 | 4 | 357 | 409 | 15 TD> |
West Darfur | 114 | 78 | 123 | 11 | 9 | 237 | 197 | -17 | |
Southern states | 36 | 174 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 185 | 399 | ||
Total traditional prod. | 888 | 788 | 961 | 51 | 6 2 | 4 | 1 851 | 1 308 | -29 |
Total harvested area (000 ha) | 1 856 1 | 835 | 3 201 | 2 61 | 5 3 | 4 | 5 060 | 4 454 | -12 |
National prod. | 3 538 2 | 795 | 973 | 52 | 9 447 | 531 | 4 958 | 3 855 | -22 |
Nat. harvested area (000 ha) | 6 294 5 | 198 | 3 237 | 2 64 | 8 278 | 318 | 9 808 | 8 164 | -17 |
Note: Although production figures are given to the nearest 1 000 tons, percentage changes have been calculated on the basis of the nearest 10 tons.
Crop/Sector | Area ('000 ha) | |||
Average 88/89- 92/93 | 93/94 | 94/95 | 95/96 | |
Sorghum 1/ | ||||
Irrigated | 415 | 373 | 484 | 328 |
Mechanized | 3 248 | 3 316 | 3 953 | 3 035 |
Traditional | 1 005 | 994 | 1 856 | 1 835 |
Total | 4 668 | 4 684 | 6 294 | 5 198 |
Millet | ||||
Irrigated | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
Mechanized | 52 | 68 | 32 | 30 |
Traditional | 1 399 | 992 | 3 201 | 2 615 |
Total | 454 | 1 061 | 3 237 | 2 648 |
Wheat | 310 | 354 | 278 | 318 |
All cereals | 6 433 | 6 098 | 9 808 | 8 164 |
Crop/Sector | Yield (kg/ha) | |||
Average 88/89- 92/93 | 93/94 | 94/95 | 95/96 | |
Sorghum 1/ | ||||
Irrigated | 1 423 | 1 588 | 1 476 | 1 715 |
Mechanized | 605 | 444 | 490 | 476 |
Traditional | 397 | 321 | 478 | 429 |
Total | 633 | 509 | 562 | 538 |
Millet | ||||
Irrigated | 681 | 714 | 429 | 536 |
Mechanized | 442 | 394 | 328 | 384 |
Traditional | 195 | 194 | 299 | 197 |
Total | 205 | 207 | 300 | 200 |
Wheat | 1 674 | 1 304 | 1 610 | 1 669 |
All cereals | 586 | 503 | 505 | 472 |
Crop/Sector | Production (000 tons) | |||
Average 88/89- 92/93 | 93/94 | 94/95 | 95/96 | |
Sorghum 1/ | ||||
Irrigated | 591 | 593 | 715 | 562 |
Mechanized | 1 964 | 1 473 | 1 935 | 1 444 |
Traditional | 399 | 319 | 888 | 788 |
Total | 2 954 | 2 385 | 3 538 | 2 795 |
Millet | ||||
Irrigated | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Mechanized | 23 | 27 | 10 | 11 |
Traditional | 273 | 192 | 961 | 516 |
Total | 298 | 220 | 973 | 529 |
Wheat | 519 | 461 | 447 | 531 |
All cereals | 3 771 | 3 066 | 4 958 | 3 855 |
Irrigation
The country's two main delta schemes at Gash and Tokar both received less flooding than usual this year, resulting in a reduction of cropped area on both schemes. The high cost of mechanized levelling and earth-moving for flood-control has also led
to inefficient use of the available water. The New Halfa scheme has had to limit its cropped area to accommodate the diminishing capacity of the dam at Khashm-el-Girba due to silting. The Rahad scheme has been partially constrained by the non-func
tioning of several of its pumps. Water delivery at Gezira, however, has been satisfactory. On the pump schemes in White Nile State, shortages of lubricating oil, fuel and spare parts resulted in moisture stress and reduced yields. The area under ir
rigated wheat in Northern State is to be expanded by approximately 20 000 hectares this winter. As yet, fuel and pumping capacity are considered to be adequate for the increased irrigation requirements through to March 1996.
Field conditions
Striga infestation has been locally more severe this year than usual, especially in areas of mechanized rainfed sorghum production. The high cost of weeding and the low availability of credit have frequently resulted in yield-limiting levels of inf
estation by annual weeds. On the irrigated schemes, especially at Tokar, Gash and New Halfa, invasion of productive land by mesquite has been a serious problem this year.
Pests and diseases
1995 was a bad year for grasshopper damage throughout the country and at all stages of crop development. Some locust swarms appeared in Darfur and Red Sea states but these were effectively controlled with little resulting crop loss. In North and We
st Kordofan and North Darfur rodent damage was particularly severe resulting in large areas being re-planted several times, and considerable crop loss. The large rodent population would appear to be the result of the unusually large amounts of grai
n in the area following last year's extremely good millet harvest. Sorghum midge and blister beetle were significant in several areas. Millet headworm was important in the drier millet-producing areas, less so in areas of higher rainfall.
Levels of most cereal diseases were normal during 1995. The exception was downy mildew which contributed to the serious yield reductions of millet in the west.
Input supply
Fertilizer supplies were generally down on last year in most irrigated areas because of high prices and slow deliveries, but sorghum yields have benefited from other factors such as early planting. Some fertilizer deliveries have still to be receiv
ed in the wheat-growing areas, but it is expected that the expanded wheat area will receive adequate amounts on time.
Seed was in good supply, following last year's good harvest, but in the drier and pest-affected areas, loss of seed due to repeated re-sowing was considerable. There was a marked increase in the use of improved varieties, especially in the irrigate d schemes.
Yields
National sorghum yields in 1995 were about 4.6 percent lower than those achieved in 1994, and 15 percent lower than the 5-year average for 1988/89-92/93. The main cause of reduced sorghum production in 1995 was the fall in cropped area.
National millet yields were only 66 percent of those of the previous year, and production was again further reduced by the smaller areas planted. Yield reductions were especially serious in North and West Kordofan and in North Darfur. However, desp ite the reduction on last year's exceptional yields, this year's national millet yields were close to the 5-year average (1988/89-1992/93), mainly because of good crops in West and South Darfur.
Wheat yields on established areas are expected to be higher in 1995/96 on account of earlier sowing and adequate fertilizer and seed supplies. Nationally, however, it is expected that the yield increase will be slight, since a large proportion of p lanting will be on new land where only moderate yields can be anticipated because of low organic matter content and possible yield reductions due to salinity.
Pasture and livestock
The poor rainfall distribution which contributed to serious grain yield reductions in North and West Kordofan and North Darfur did not have the same effect on pasture, and the pasture situation in these predominantly pastoralist areas is considered
adequate, with the condition and health of livestock generally good at present. This is not the case, however, in much of Red Sea State where livestock numbers have built up again after the drought of 1991. Here, pasture and fodder are in very s
hort supply and the avoidance of a serious livestock situation depends on the arrival of adequate winter rains.
Cereal Production Forecast
With the reduced area planted compared with last year and generally smaller yields, production will be down. The aggregate production of all cereals is forecast at 3.855 million tons -- 22 percent less than 1994/95 but 2 percent higher than the 5-y
ear average, 1988/89-1992/93.
Prevailing wheat prices also reflect world levels since half of national wheat consumption is normally imported. With world prices at record levels and a depreciating currency, internal wheat prices are approaching _Sud 200 000 per ton -- 30 percen t higher than the floor prices set by the Government two months ago to encourage wheat plantings. Farmers are responding to this strong incentive by planting large areas for harvest in March/April 1996.
Area ('000 ha) | ||||
Average 88/89- 92/93 | 1993/94 | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | |
Sorghum | ||||
Northern | 17 | 21 | 107 | 110 |
Eastern | 1 539 | 1 622 | 1 984 | 1 623 |
Central | 2 117 | 2 019 | 2 634 | 2 139 |
Kordofan | 511 | 538 | 982 | 700 |
Darfur | 263 | 278 | 312 | 226 |
South | 222 | 205 | 276 | 399 |
Subtotal | 4 668 | 4 684 | 6 294 | 5 198 |
Millet | ||||
Eastern | 11 | 13 | 15 | 14 |
Central | 52 | 60 | 46 | 69 |
Kordofan | 757 | 453 | 1 697 | 1 290 |
Darfur | 633 | 529 | 1 472 | 1 266 |
South | 2 | 5 | 7 | 9 |
Subtotal | 1 454 | 1 061 | 3 237 | 2 648 |
Wheat | ||||
Northern | 39 | 55 | 65 | 97 |
Eastern | 7 | 11 | 7 | 8 |
Central | 263 | 288 | 203 | 210 |
Darfur | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
Subtotal | 310 | 354 | 278 | 318 |
All cereals | 6 433 | 6 098 | 9 808 | 8 164 |
Yield (kg/ha) | ||||
Average 88/89- 92/93 | 1993/94 | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | |
Sorghum | ||||
Northern | 1 488 | 1 667 | 948 | 859 |
Eastern | 675 | 512 | 560 | 430 |
Central | 698 | 595 | 610 | 670 |
Kordofan | 423 | 262 | 372 | 238 |
Darfur | 419 | 431 | 805 | 792 |
South | 388 | 278 | 379 | 563 |
Subtotal | 633 | 509 | 562 | 538 |
Millet | ||||
Eastern | 550 | 446 | 377 | 473 |
Central | 348 | 381 | 302 | 336 |
Kordofan | 130 | 80 | 244 | 44 |
Darfur | 276 | 289 | 363 | 348 |
South | 595 | 298 | 216 | 111 |
Subtotal | 205 | 207 | 300 | 200 |
Wheat | ||||
Northern | 2 536 | 215 | 2 396 | 2 205 |
Eastern | 1 609 | 969 | 1 282 | 1 429 |
Central | 1 552 | 1 182 | 1 380 | 1 444 |
Darfur | 1 190 | 0 | 794 | 952 |
Subtotal | 1 674 | 1 304 | 1 610 | 1 669 |
All cereals | 586 | 503 | 505 | 472 |
Production (000 tons) | ||||
Average 88/89- 92/93 | 1993/94 | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | |
Sorghum | ||||
Northern | 25 | 35 | 102 | 95 |
Eastern | 1 038 | 831 | 1 111 | 698 |
Central | 1 479 | 1 201 | 1 606 | 1 432 |
Kordofan | 216 | 141 | 365 | 166 |
Darfur | 110 | 120 | 251 | 179 |
South | 86 | 57 | 104 | 224 |
Subtotal | 2 954 | 2 385 | 3 538 | 2 795 |
Millet | ||||
Eastern | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Central | 18 | 23 | 14 | 23 |
Kordofan | 98 | 36 | 415 | 57 |
Darfur | 175 | 153 | 537 | 441 |
South | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Subtotal | 298 | 220 | 973 | 529 |
Wheat | ||||
Northern | 98 | 110 | 156 | 213 |
Eastern | 11 | 11 | 9 | 11 |
Central | 408 | 340 | 280 | 303 |
Darfur | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
Subtotal | 519 | 461 | 447 | 531 |
All cereals | 3 771 | 3 066 | 4 958 | 3 855 |
Flooding at Gash and Tokar delta schemes was poor this year, leading to a reduction in cropped area. Other factors contributing to this reduction include the invasion of productive land by mesquite and poor flood water control resulting from the hi gh cost of earth-moving and levelling. Cereal area was also limited by the Government's obligation to plant a proportion of all irrigated land to cotton. Gash's sorghum yields are generally higher than Tokar's as a result of better irrigation contr ol and weeding. This year the schemes are expected to yield 1 670 and 643 kg/ha respectively.
New Halfa has had an average year, with satisfactory input supplies and irrigation. Planted areas, however, have been diminishing over recent years as a result of the reduced capacity of the Khashm-al-Girba dam due to silting. Mesquite has also bec ome a serious problem in parts of this scheme. Sorghum yields of 1 070 kg/ha are expected to produce 25 000 tons. The timeliness of wheat planting in November and early December gives rise to an expectation of better-than-average yields of 1 670 kg /ha and a total production of almost 40 000 tons.
In total, Eastern region is forecast to produce only 700 000 tons of sorghum leading to a drastic fall in the surplus available for populations in central Sudan and in the deficit areas of the west.
Central Region: This region normally accounts for half of national sorghum production, with more than 2 million hectares of rainfed and irrigated sorghum. The five constituent provinces include part of the Rahad scheme and all of Gezira, Suki and t he pump schemes of Blue Nile and White Nile. There are large areas of both mechanized and traditional sorghum production.
The sorghum areas planted in Gezira were reduced this year because of a change in crop rotation, but crops benefited from following groundnuts (instead of cotton). Sorghum was planted early, mainly with improved varieties and there was evidence of better weeding because more herbicides were available for cotton. Yields in Gezira were above average despite some shortages of urea. The production of 300 000 tons amounts to half of Sudan's irrigated sorghum output. The much smaller Suki scheme a lso achieved good yields but on a sharply reduced area. The pump schemes along the Blue and White Niles have reduced planted areas in recent years in line with increasing difficulties of water supplies caused by shortages of fuel, lubricants and sp are parts. Sorghum areas in these two schemes totalled only 40 000 hectares in 1995. Yields were favourable in Blue Nile but down in the White Nile scheme because of moisture stress in mid-season.
The mechanized production in the Damazin, Sennar and Kosti areas (amounting to 1.5 million hectares) generally benefited from well-distributed rainfall, although total amounts were lower than last year. Some diversion of sorghum area to cash crops occurred, and reduced credit facilities also led to smaller plantings. Grasshoppers were widespread and resowings have caused late and variable crops in most of the mechanized schemes. Yields in Damazin and Sennar are above average and overall prod uction of mechanized sorghum is close to the 5-year average.
Central region includes large tracts of traditionally-grown sorghum, especially in Gezira and White Nile states. Crops in Butana (Gezira state) were very poor this year, with widespread failures resulting from low rainfall, inadequate run-off water and grasshopper attacks. Early planted crops in White Nile state have yielded at average levels, but late crops are poor and are being attacked by sorghum midge. Traditional crops in Blue Nile and Sennar states are generally good, mainly due to ea rly planting and well-distributed rainfall. Overall, traditional sorghum output in Central region is less than in 1994 but above the 5-year average. Millet is relatively insignificant.
Total sorghum production is forecast at 1.4 million tons for the region as a whole, which leaves some scope for surpluses to be moved westwards and south to deficit areas.
Wheat production in Gezira and Rahad is expected to be close to last year's levels, following a strong campaign by the schemes' authorities and the currently strong price incentives for farmers.
Northern Region: Cereal production in Northern and Nile States consists of wheat in the winter under irrigation and sorghum in the summer, both rainfed and irrigated. The cool winter climate is very suitable for wheat but the suitable period is com paratively short, necessitating timely planting to avoid high temperatures which return in April. Last year, much of the wheat was sown late (up to early January) and it may be assumed that this contributed to a reduction in average yield. This yea r, however, farmers have planted their crop much earlier, with the state ministries encouraging the completion of sowing by mid-December at the latest. The anticipated increase in fertilizer use this season is expected to raise yields. There is to be a 50 percent increase in area sown to wheat in Northern State (from 40 000 to 60 000 hectares) but most of this expansion is onto land that has not been cropped in recent years, which will have low levels of organic matter and may be slightly sa line. It is consequently expected that, while yields will be high on the established wheat land, low yields will be obtained on the new land, giving an overall average yield for the Northern states, slightly below that achieved last year.
Most of Northern region's sorghum is produced in Nile state. Attacks by grasshoppers were estimated to reduce production of rainfed sorghum (on a total of about 80 000 hectares) by about 10 percent, but irrigated sorghum (planted on 29 000 hectares in Nile and 8 000 hectares in Northern) was generally free of pests and diseases.
The Northern region is expected to produce 500 000 tons of cereals surplus to local consumption requirements.
Kordofan Region: Kordofan comprises the three states of North, South and West Kordofan. The main cereal of North and West Kordofan is traditionally-grown rainfed millet. This year, rainfall in North Kordofan was very variable and, in many areas, po orly distributed, with a dry spell during the critical period of mid-late August. In some parts of North Kordofan, useful rains ended in August. In addition, the large rodent population, resulting from last's year's good grain harvest, consumed the seed from large areas, necessitating re-seeding, often several times. Throughout the growing season, grasshoppers were a problem, and yields were further reduced by downy mildew. The resulting crop is extremely sparse, with non-uniform maturation and very few good heads. Yields are expected to be only about 31 kg/ha over an area of more than 400 000 hectares. The situation in West Kordofan was even worse with regard to millet, but here it was partly compensated by good groundnut and waterme lon yields.
South Kordofan differs from the other two states in that it has significant areas of mechanized, rainfed sorghum production near Dilling, where the area planted in 1995 was sharply down on account of economic factors and a shortage of tractors. Tra ditionally-grown millet is also important in South Kordofan. Rainfall in the state was generally good this year and yields are expected to be in the region of 430 and 290 kg/ha for sorghum and millet respectively. Some grasshoppers were reported, b ut in general the pest situation was good.
Notwithstanding the good production in South Kordofan, the region as a whole is expected to have a cereal deficit of nearly 300 000 tons.
Darfur Region: Darfur comprises three states, North, South and West Darfur where the region's staple is millet, although West and South Darfur also produce significant amounts of sorghum. North Darfur had a very similar season to North and West Kor dofan, with variable and often poorly-distributed rainfall, serious losses to rodents and grasshoppers, and localized losses due to downy mildew. Yields, estimated at only 36 kg/ha, are similar to those for North Kordofan. With 25 percent of the pl anted area of nearly 800 000 hectares abandoned, North Darfur cereal production is expected to be only 16 000 tons, less than 10 percent of last year's production.
In contrast, the season in West Darfur was good, with millet production about the same as last year. Sorghum yields, although lower than last year, were nevertheless very satisfactory at 880 kg/ha. Grasshoppers, stemborers and millet headworm were reported but infestation levels were not exceptional.
Although total rainfall in South Darfur was less this year than last, its distribution was better. Millet yields, at 480 kg/ha, are expected to be the best rainfed millet yields in the country and sorghum is expected to give 750 kg/ha. There has be en a move away from sorghum this year in favour of cash crops, especially groundnut which accounts for more than one million feddans.
Southern Region: The Mission visited the area around Renk in the North province of Upper Nile state and consulted WFP staff concerned with relief operations into southern Sudan. Use was made of a detailed WFP/UNDP/UNICEF survey of 1995 household pr oduction in 24 sub-areas of the South, in order to build up estimates of aggregate production.
The area of mechanized sorghum planted at Renk was reduced sharply from last year due to late rains, high costs of production, lower credit availability and some diversion to sesame. There were further losses of area due to poor rains and strong we ed competition, and overall yields were poor. Production from Renk, at 41 000 tons, was the lowest of recent years. Traditional sorghum at Renk yielded better than the mechanized crop due to more timely planting, but production (at 23 000 tons) was down on last year.
In most of the remaining nine states of southern Sudan, rain was spasmodic at the start of the season in April and May, and more consistent from June onwards. Although there was much replanting, the late crop generally benefited from a favourable s eason, except in the drier parts of Eastern Equatoria. Insecurity restricted plantings in Bahr el Ghazal and central Jonglei. Labour is a constraint in many areas, restricting cultivation and weeding, but shortages of seeds and tools have only been a problem for displaced communities in Western Equatoria and parts of Wau.
Production (mainly of sorghum but also some maize and millet) has been particularly high in the "green belt" of Western Equatoria and some surpluses could be available for wider distribution if the security and logistical problems can be overcome. In other parts of the South, crop production is above recent average levels although insecurity is still restricting cultivation, cereal transport and marketing. Excluding the mechanized Renk scheme, cereal production in the South is estimated at 1 80 000 tons -- well above previous estimates, largely due to the more complete information available to the Mission.
All cereals | Sorghum | Millet | Wheat | Other | |
Production | 3 855 | 2 785 | 529 | 531 | 10 |
Stock draw-down | 73 | 47 | 45 | 3 | |
Stock build-up | 22 | ||||
A. TOTAL AVAILABILITY | 3 928 | 2 832 | 574 | 509 | 13 |
Food use | 3 786 | 2 318 | 509 | 933 | 26 |
Feed use | 125 | 114 | 10 | 0 | 1 |
Other uses | 436 | 300 | 55 | 80 | 1 |
Exports | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
B. TOTAL UTILIZATION | 4 447 | 2 832 | 574 | 1 013 | 28 |
C. IMPORT REQUIREMENTS (B-A) | 519 | 0 | 0 | 504 | 15 |
Commercial imports | 441 | 0 | 0 | 426 | 15 |
Emergency food aid requirements | 24 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0 |
Project food aid/FFW | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 |
Programme food aid/NGO 1/ | 34 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 0 |
Region | Sorghum | Millet | Wheat | All cereals | Net prod. | Population | Consumption | Balance |
Northern | 95 | 213 | 308 | 261 | 1 411 | 215 | 46 | |
Eastern | 698 | 7 | 11 | 716 | 608 | 3 201 | 488 | 120 |
Central | 1 432 | 23 | 303 | 1 758 | 1 494 | 8 976 | 1 368 | 126 |
Kordofan | 166 | 57 | 224 | 190 | 3 191 | 486 | -296 | |
Darfur | 179 | 441 | 4 | 624 | 531 | 5 016 | 764 | -233 |
South | 214 | 1 | 225 | 192 | 5 158 | 464 | -272 | |
Total | 2 785 | 529 | 531 | 3 855 | 3 276 | 26 953 | 3 786 | -509 |
FOOD REQUIREMENT (tons) | Cereals | Pulses | Oils | Sugar | DSM | Salt | Total |
ASSESSED 1996 REQUIREMENTS | 31 338 | 5 171 | 1 645 | 381 | 572 | 864 | 39 971 |
WFP CARRYOVER STOCKS end '95 | 9 875 | 3 516 | 3 226 | 256 | 575 | 17 448 | |
WFP pledges in transit shipments etc. | 3 200 | 3 200 | |||||
NGO CARRYOVER STOCKS end '95 1/ | 754 | 930 | 448 | 3 | 3 | 2 138 | |
NGO pledges, in transit shipments etc.2/ | 5 246 | 990 | 369 | 6 605 |
|||
TOTAL AVAILABLE | 19 075 | 5 436 | 4 043 | 259 | 578 | 0 | 29 391 |
(SHORTFALL) / SURPLUS | (12 263) | 265 | 2 398 | (122) | 6 | (864) | (10 580) |
FOOD REQUIREMENT (tons) | Cereals | Pulses | Oils | Sugar | DSM | Salt | CSB/ Unimix |
Total |
ASSESSED 1996 REQUIREMENTS | 17 600 | 2 640 | 660 | 5 | 220 | 300 | 21 425 | |
WFP CARRYOVER STOCKS end '95 (provisional) |
4 700 | 290 | 190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 5 257 |
WFP Pledges in transit shipments loan repayments | 1 026 | 730 | 210 | 1 966 | ||||
TOTAL AVAILABLE | 5 726 | 1 020 | 400 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 7 223 |
(SHORTFALL)/SURPLUS | (11 874) | (1 620) | (260) | (5) | 0 | (220) | (223) | (14 202) |
Abdur Rashid | B. Szynalski |
Chief, ESCG, FAO | Director, OP, WFP |
Telex 610181FAO I | Telex: 626675 WFP I |
Fax: 0039-6-5225-4495 | Fax: 0039-6-5228-2837 |
E-mail: INTERNET: [email protected] |