Africa report

CURRENT SITUATION

A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Sudan forecast the 1995 harvest of sorghum and millet at 3.31 million tons, some 26 percent below the previous year's exceptional crop but 2 percent above the benchmark 5-year average of 1988/89-1992/93. Compared with 1994, sorghum production will be down by 12 percent, mainly due to a drop in planted area. In the case of millet, production will be 46 percent less than the previous year's record crop, with millet area down by 18 percent and yields down by 33 percent.

Smaller plantings of both cereals were due to economic factors (less profitable production compared with cash crops, and reduced availability of credit), poor rains at the start of the season and early damage by grasshoppers and rodents. The irrigated sorghum area was also affected by a change in the crop rotation in some schemes. Yields of all crops were affected by poor mid-season rains, pest damage and more weed competition than normal, partly due to reduced weeding as a means of saving on production costs. On the other hand, many crops benefited from greater use of improved varieties and from favourable September rains. Irrigated crops have generally yielded well, whilst the mechanized sector has achieved slightly below-normal yields. Traditional crop yields were well down on last year, although close to the long term average.

The Mission's tentative forecast for wheat is 0.53 million tons, some 19 percent higher than last year and 2 percent up from the 1988/89-1992/93 average. This would put national production of all cereals in 1995/96 at 3.85 million tons, 22 percent down from last year or 2 percent higher than the 5-year average.

Bearing in mind the increasing population (consuming an incremental 100 000 tons annually), supplies are likely to be adequate but tight overall. There will be no capacity for exports in 1996, and seed and feed usage is expected to fall compared with last year. Allowing for a net 73 000 ton drawdown in private stocks, imports of 519 000 tons of cereals are required to achieve normal consumption, 11 percent more than last year's imports. Considering the Sudanese economy and its trade deficit, there are concerns about the country's ability to finance such an import level, given the high world prices for wheat. Some 441 000 tons of imports are tentatively forecast on commercial terms in 1995/96. A total of 78 000 tons of cereal food aid will be required in 1996.

Cereal production will be particularly low in North and West Kordofan and North Darfur and these states will experience severe deficits which must be met from other surplus states. Although the current high livestock numbers, good pastures and reasonable livestock prices suggest that populations should be able to purchase cereals in these three states, the situation should be carefully monitored. If the terms of trade between livestock and cereals deteriorate, assistance may be needed to support the movement of grain from surplus areas to the west. Nearly 500 000 tons of cereal transfers into these three deficit states will be necessary for the populations to achieve normal consumption in 1995/96 before allowing for any depletion of stocks. There will also be food deficits in the South, despite reasonable crops in some states. However these deficits are unlikely to be met by the commercial sector due to the high cost and limited availability of transportation, and the limited purchasing power of the population.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1995/96 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)