| Area: | 886 000 sq.km |
| Climate: | Tropical wet-dry climate with two rainy seasons in north (March-May and November-December) and one in south (November-April) |
| Population: | 28.85 million (1995 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 110 (1992) |
| Specific characteristics of the country: | Low-income food-deficit country; cereal surplus production in the south and south-west; cereal deficit in the north-west. Distribution difficulties |
| Logistics: | Serious shortage of rolling stock, fuel and spare parts |
| Major foodcrops: | Maize, roots, tubers, sorghum, pulses, plantains, rice |
| Marketing year: | June/May; Lean season: February-April |
| Share of cereals in total calorie intake: | 60 percent |
CURRENT SITUATION
Prospects for the 1995/96 first season cereal crop, now being harvested, are favourable. Normal “Vuli” rains in the past two months in the Northern Coastal Belt and the Lake Victoria basin maintained adequate soil moisture for crops development. However, in some low land parts of the north-eastern areas precipitation has been below normal. Elsewhere in the country, seasonal dry conditions favoured land preparation and sowing of the main 1995/96 cereal crops.
The 1995 cereal production is estimated at 4.6 million tons (including paddy), an increase of over one-third from the reduced level of last year, mainly as a result of better yields.. The production estimate includes, some 2.7 million tons of maize, 839 000 tons of sorghum, 723 000 of paddy .and 411 000 tons of millet. Production of pulses doubled the 1994 level to 378 000 tons and that of sweet potato also increased sharply; however, outputs of cassava and plantains declined substantially.
As a result of the good cereal harvest of this year, import requirement in marketing year 1995/96 (July June) is estimated at only 45 000 tons of wheat. The Government has authorized the export of 100 000 tons of maize and 15 000 tons of rice.
The overall food supply position is satisfactory. Prices of main food staples, maize, rice and beans remain stable in most urban markets. However, the food situation continues to be tight for some 307 000 persons in nearly half the regions of the country affected by successive crop failures. Food aid requirement for this population is estimated at 20 000 tons of maize and 2 000 of beans, which are fully covered by in-country food aid stocks. Food aid assistance is also required for about 630 000 refugees from Rwanda and Burundi in western parts, particularly in Kigoma and Kagera.
CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1995/96 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)
| Wheat | Rice | Coarse grains | Total | |
| Normal production | 85 | 405 | 3 230 | 3 720 |
| Normal imports (incl. re-exports) | 60 | 25 | - | 85 |
| of which: Structural food aid | 15 | 15 | - | 30 |
| 1995/96 Domestic availability | 92 | 470 | 3 817 | 4 379 |
| 1995 Production | 75 | 470 | 3 817 | 4 362 |
| Possible stock drawdown | 17 | - | - | 17 |
| 1995/96 Utilization | 117 | 470 | 3 832 | 4 419 |
| Food use | 113 | 396 | 2 956 | 3 465 |
| Non-food use | 4 | 27 | 687 | 718 |
| of which: local purchase requirement | - | - | (25) | (25) |
| Possible stock build-up | - | 32 | 89 | 121 |
| Exports | - | 15 | 100 | 115 |
| 1995/96 Import Requirement | 45 | - | - | 45 |
| Anticipated commercial imports | 45 | - | - | 45 |
| Food aid needs | - | - | - | - |
| Current Aid Position | ||||
| Food aid pledges | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| of which: Delivered | 1 | 2 | - | 3 |
| Donor-financed purchases | - | - | 49 | 49 |
| of which: for export | - | - | 24 | 24 |
| for local purchases | - | - | 25 | 25 |
| Estimated per caput consumption (kg/year) | 4 | 16 | 98 | 118 |
| Indexes | ||||
| 1995 production as % of normal: | 117 | |||
| 1995/96 import requirement as % of normal: | 47 | |||
| 1995/96 food aid requirement as % of normal (including refugee needs): | 50 | |||