Africa report January 1996

PART II: POSITION BY SUB-REGION

The 1995/96 coarse grain crop in southern Africa is now in the ground. Main season crops in eastern Africa have been harvested and the wheat crop in Sudan will be gathered from March 1996. Elsewhere in eastern Africa, secondary season crops are due for harvest from February. In western Africa, off-season crops are in the ground in several countries but the 1996 main season crops will not be planted until March in the coastal countries and June in the Sahelian countries.

Cereal Crop Calendar

1/ Except Burundi, Rwanda and Zaire which have two main seasons and Tanzania whose main season follows the southern Africa planting calendar. For Sudan, the planting period for the staple coarse grain crop is June-July and the harvesting period is October-December.

Eastern Africa: Harvesting of the 1995 foodcrops is complete in the sub-region. The aggregate cereal output of the sub-region is provisionally estimated to be slightly larger than last year and above average. The overall improvement in production masks wide variations between countries. In Ethiopia, a bumper cereal and pulse crop has been harvested as a result of the combination of well-distributed rains during the season, improved distribution of fertilizers and absence of migratory pests. In Tanzania, cereal production was one third more than the reduced level of the previous year and above normal. In Uganda, production of the main season cereal crop increased for the fourth consecutive year to record levels, while prospects for the secondary crop are favourable. By contrast, cereal production declined considerably in Sudan from the exceptional level of the previous year although it remained at the average level; plantings and yields were reduced by lower availability of credit and diversion of cereal area to cash crops, poor rains at the beginning and the middle of the season, and localized pests damage. In Kenya, maize production declined from the record volume of 1994, following smaller plantings, but remained above normal. In Somalia, the 1995 main "Gu" was sharply reduced from the previous year's level as a result of reduced planting, erratic rains, and severe pest infestation. Prospects for the secondary "Der" crops, about to be harvested, are uncertain due to insecurity in southern areas and localized dry spells. In Eritrea, the 1995 grain production is well below the good crop of 1994; yields were reduced by erratic precipitation at the beginning of the season and earlier cessation of the rains. In Burundi, renewed violence and displacement of population affected both plantings and husbandry of the 1996 first season foodcrops, about to be harvested. Improved security conditions, a larger rural population and generally adequate rains point to a sharp increase of the 1996 first season food production in Rwanda which, however, will remain about one quarter below average.

The aggregate cereal import requirement in 1995 of the eight countries of the sub-region which have a January/December marketing year is estimated at 1.3 million tons. With commercial imports expected to reach 0.4 million tons, the balance is to be covered by food aid. Pledges until end December reported to GIEWS amount to 1.3 million tons of which 1.1 million tons have been delivered.

The aggregate cereal import requirement of Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania and Sudan which have entered their new marketing years is estimated at 1.5 million tons.

RECENT CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSIONS TO SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Between October and December 1995, GIEWS mounted a series of Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions to the Sahelian countries of western Africa and to Eritrea, Ethiopia, Liberia, Rwanda and Sudan. In close collaboration with the parties concerned, these Missions made estimates of the cereal and foodcrop production and cereal import and food aid requirements. Eritrea: An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (November 1995) estimated the 1995 cereal and pulse production at 149 000 tons, 42 percent less than 1994 and 25 percent below the last 3-year average. Unfavourable weather and pest infestations reduced plantings and constrained yield potential. The Mission estimated the cereal and pulse import requirement for 1996 at 291 000 tons, including 191 000 tons to be provided as food aid. Ethiopia: An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (November/December 1995) forecast the 1994/95 cereal and pulse output at 9.4 million tons, 13 percent above the previous year’s harvest. Timely and well distributed rains in most areas, improved distribution of fertilizers and the effects of liberalization, boosted production. Despite an overall comfortable food supply situation, some 3 million persons will require emergency food aid, a substantial part of which can be met by donor-supported local purchases. Liberia: An FAO Crop Assessment Mission (November/December 1995) estimated that rice production in 1995 had dropped by some 73 percent and cassava production well over 55 percent from pre-civil war levels. The minimum food aid requirement in 1996 is estimated at 163 000 tons. Rwanda: An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (November/December 1995) estimated the food production in 1996-A season at 1.78 million tons, representing 82 percent of the average for 1989-93. The Mission found that the food supply situation remains tenuous in several parts and over 1 million people will require food aid in 1996. Sudan: An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (November/December 1995) forecast the 1995/96 cereal production at 3.85 million tons, 22 percent down from the previous year, but 2 percent higher than the 5-year average. Some 78 000 tons of cereal food aid will be required for over 2 million affected people. Sahelian countries: A series of GIEWS Crop Assessment Missions (October 1995) undertaken jointly with “Programme Diagnostic Permanent (DIAPER) of the Comité Permanent Inter Etats de Lutte contre la Sécheresse dans le Sahel (CILSS) to the nine CILSS member countries (except in The Gambia, which was visited by an FAO Mission only) estimated the aggregate cereal output of the nine CILSS member countries at an above-average 9.6 million tons (including rice in paddy terms). The findings of these Missions were presented at the annual meeting of the "network for prevention of food crises in the Sahel" organized by the Club du Sahel (OECD) and CILSS in late November in Niamey.

Southern Africa: Early prospects are favourable for the recently planted 1995/96 coarse grains and rice crops. While dry conditions prevailed over most of Malawi and Mozambique in October and early November, scattered rains were received in parts of Botswana, Lesotho, Madagascar, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. In December, the rains set in throughout the sub-region and have been abundant in many areas, with the exception of Namibia which did not receive any significant planting rains until early January. Initial indications are that the area under maize in South Africa will be well up from last year’s drought reduced level but may remain below average. However, heavy December rains caused widespread flooding in South Africa and Zimbabwe with damage to dams and property. In the Kwazulu-Natal province of South Africa, floods resulted in over 150 deaths and affected a further 2 000 people. In Angola, sustained rainfall since September

favoured large plantings and early establishment of the emerging crops across most parts of the country. Given the peaceful environment currently enjoyed by the country and the strong support provided by the international community for the country’s rehabilitation programme, it is anticipated that more land will come under cultivation this year compared to the previous year. However, the need to de-mine large areas of arable land and difficulties in transporting seeds and other agricultural inputs have remained a major constraint to output.

The food supply situation in the sub-region remains tight. Following a below-average aggregate cereal production of 14.6 million tons, 24 percent below the 5 year average, import requirements for the marketing year 1995/96 are estimated at 5 million tons compared to 4 million tons in 1994/95. Of the estimated 1 million tons of food aid pledged, only 60 percent has actually been delivered. With commercial imports also reported to be coming in slowly, particularly in Zambia, and stocks being rapidly depleted, the food supply situation is worsening in several areas and donors are urged to expedite deliveries of pledged food aid.

Western Africa: The 1995 growing season was mostly favourable for crop development. Precipitation remained generally widespread in the Sahelian countries throughout the growing season. The rainy season started somewhat early in Burkina Faso, in the south of Chad and Mali where first rains were registered in April and early May. Rains started in May in Guinea-Bissau and central Chad. The rainy season started in early June in the south of Senegal, in mid-June in The Gambia and Niger, in late June in Mauritania and in early July in Cape Verde. Precipitation became abundant in July and August over the main producing zones but remained weak in July and early August in northern Senegal and Burkina Faso, northern and centre-western Mali where crops suffered from water stress. Plantings were delayed in some of these areas. Rains resumed in mid-August in these zones and allowed a good recovery of the crops. They began to decrease in September, notably in northern Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso and western Mauritania, while precipitation moved southward, but remained widespread over all the countries. The rains stopped in late September/early October in northern and central Senegal, Mauritania, central Mali, Niger and Cape Verde. Precipitation stopped in mid-October in Burkina Faso and central Chad but remained quite abundant in the south of Chad in early October.

Preliminary indications are that, following favourable rainfall, the aggregate area planted to cereals did not decrease significantly from 1994 levels. As in 1994, some marginal areas were cropped as good rainfall permitted sowing on normally uncultivated lands. Substantial rice producing areas which had been flooded in Niger in 1994 could be cultivated. By contrast, flooding in some areas of Chad prevented cultivation, particularly of rice and sorghum, in some low-lying or irrigated areas. Overall seed availability was adequate following the previous year's above-average harvests in most countries. Because of the regularity of post-sowing rainfall, the young plants were generally not affected by water stress and there was no or only very limited need for replanting, except in Burkina Faso which registered reduced rains or dry spells in July.

In the second half of October, a series of joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Missions were mounted (The Gambia Mission solely by FAO) to review the 1995 cropping season and examine the preliminary cereal production estimates that had been made by the national agricultural statistics services. The FAO/CILSS assessments suggest above-average harvests in all CILSS member countries except Cape Verde. Record crops are anticipated in The Gambia and Guinea-Bissau, while output is close to previous record levels of 1994 in Mauritania and 1993 in Senegal. Production decreased slightly from the 1994 volumes in Burkina Faso and Niger. It decreased significantly in Chad and Mali but remained above the 1987-94 average. Compared with 1994, production of coarse grains generally decreased over the entire Sahel, while that of rice increased, notably in Burkina Faso and Niger. Cereal production in 1995 for the nine CILSS member countries in West Africa is provisionally estimated at almost 9.6 million tons (including rice in paddy terms), which is 4 percent less than in 1994 but 14 percent more than the 1988-1994 average. These figures should be viewed as preliminary as the surveys were generally made before the end of the harvest and include forecasts for recession and off-season crops. In some countries, the rainy season ended with fairly substantial rains in October, which may enhance yields but may also have caused problems during crop ripening and harvesting. These estimates may therefore have to be revised in the coming months, but there is unlikely to be a change in the overall trend indicating an average to above-average production for the sub-region as a whole.

LOCUST AND GRASSHOPPER SITUATION In West Africa, Desert Locust infestations were present primarily in Mauritania throughout 1995. As a result of a gradual build-up of infestations in western Mauritania and subsequent migration northwards during the last months of 1994, swarms appeared and laid in northern Mauritania during January 1995. A similar situation may have occurred in the adjacent areas of north-western Mali. Despite extensive control operations new adults migrated further north, reaching the southern side of the Atlas Mountains in Algeria and Morocco in March. Ground and aerial control operations were undertaken in northern Mauritania from January to mid-April 1995. A group of adult locusts was first reported in south-eastern Mauritania during April 1995, but the southern migration of adults from the spring breeding areas of Morocco and Algeria became more evident during May when a few small swarms appeared in Adrar and Inchiri. Several swarms also reached the Nema area. Many adults seem to have dispersed further south in the adjacent areas of western Mali although breeding conditions were already favourable in most of the summer breeding areas of Mauritania. No significant developments occurred in these areas, nor in the two Hodhs of Mauritania during the summer. However, the locusts that remained in Mauritania concentrated in the south-west and laid during May and June. Some infestations were also present in the Senegal River Valley where adults and hoppers were treated in late July and August. In late September, escapees started to form swarms which began moving towards the winter breeding areas of northern Mauritania. Control operations were undertaken against laying swarms and new hopper bands in October, and hopper infestations appeared south of Atar at the end of the month. During November, nomads reported swarms and hopper bands in Tiris Zemmour. Control operation continued against maturing swarms near Nouakchott in December. Small infestations of hoppers and adults were present in parts of northern Mauritania where widespread rains occurred during the month and in adjacent areas of south-western Morocco. Locusts are expected to slowly mature and adults and perhaps a few small swarms may move north towards Morocco if temperatures increase. In northern Niger, mature gregarious adults locusts were present and laid in early February, which resulted in localized hopper infestations. Treatments were undertaken from late January to late April. Limited control operations were also undertaken in northern Mali during the same period. In early June, a few swarms and a few hopper bands appeared in the north of both countries. However, most of the adults dispersed in southern regions where some persisted throughout the summer and no further developments occurred. Several swarms appeared in north-eastern Niger by mid-June from north-west Africa. These moved further east, arriving in eastern Chad at the end of June and continued to Sudan. No laying occurred in eastern Chad where only scattered adults remained at a few places from August onwards. In Sudan, several small maturing swarms were reported in late November and during the first half of December on the southern Red Sea coast in the Tokar Delta and neighbouring Khor Baraka. High densities of solitary adults were seen on the coastal plains south of Tokar Delta near Adobana. In mid-December, one swarm was seen laying in the same area. During the second half of the month, scattered mature and copulating adults continued to be reported in the Tokar Delta and near Adobana. In late December, a dense swarm was seen at Khor Hamalieb. In Somalia, scattered mature adults were reported from a few places on the north-western coast near Harshow and Humbies in late November. Breeding is expected to continue in these two countries and a few hopper bands and groups of adults may form. Several countries experienced localized grasshopper infestations notably in Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. Substantial treatments were undertaken in Niger. Elsewhere, with plentiful natural vegetation from the good rainfall, the grasshoppers did not concentrate on crops. Major ongoing activities under the locust component of the FAO Emergency Prevention System (EMPRES) for Transboundary Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases cover the establishment of a regional information exchange network, improving the early response capacity through contingency plans and arrangements, improving Desert Locust surveys and supporting field trials on new control methods. Other ongoing EMPRES activities are focused on Desert Locust monitoring in western Africa and improving the forecasting system at FAO Headquarters.

In the coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, the overall growing conditions for 1995 cereal crops were favourable in most coastal countries. An early start of the rainy season in late February/March in the south and late April/May in northern parts, followed by regular and well distributed rains throughout the growing season, allowed good development of crops. Cumulative rainfall since the beginning of the season has been generally normal to above-normal and a good harvest is in prospect except in Liberia and Sierra Leone. The harvest of the first maize crop in late June and in July was good in the southern most coastal countries while above-average harvests of millet and sorghum (but below last year’s volume) were expected in the north except in Cameroon and Ghana where a bumper harvest is expected this year. The second maize crop planted as of early September is developing under favourable growing conditions. Heavy rains in early July over Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Benin, caused severe flooding and damaged infrastructures, notably in Accra. Rains also caused flooding in mid-September in the centre of Benin and Togo.

Following the generally good harvests, the food supply situation is expected to remain satisfactory in the 1995/96 marketing year, with the exception of Liberia and Sierra Leone, still affected by civil war. In Cape Verde, where substantial cereal commercial imports and/or food aid are planned, the food supply situation is not anticipated to be critical despite the reduced 1995 harvest. In some areas of Benin, Chad, Ghana and Togo, several populations will be at risk of food shortages following flooding in 1995 and may require some assistance. In the other areas, following successive average to record crops, farmers' stocks are expected to be at comfortable levels. Localized deficits in some areas can be covered by transfers from surplus areas. Exportable surpluses are also available, and triangular transactions can be organized, notably from Mali.

Imports of wheat and rice will remain necessary, but those of coarse grains will remain small except in traditional border areas where local trade is active. For ongoing food aid programmes, donors are urged to undertake local purchases of coarse grains to the maximum extent possible. The Desert Locust situation in Mauritania will also need to be monitored closely.

The aggregate cereal import requirement in 1995 of the seven countries of the sub-region which have a January/December marketing year is estimated at 1.1 million tons. Anticipated commercial imports were estimated at 0.7 million tons and the food aid requirement at 0.4 million tons. This includes 290 000 tons of exceptional assistance for Benin, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS as of late December 1995 amount to 0.39 million tons and 0.36 million tons have been delivered so far. Thus, some 30 000 tons which have not yet been delivered can be considered as pledges for the next 1996 marketing year.

For the ten countries which have now already entered their new 1995/96 marketing year, the cereal import requirement is estimated at 3.5 million tons. The food aid requirement is estimated at some 0.3 million tons, mainly in wheat and rice. No imported food aid in coarse grains is necessary for Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Togo but local purchases are strongly recommended to cover needs in coarse grains for ongoing food aid programmes. Pledges carried forward from the previous year and new allocations amount to 110 000 tons so far, of which 29 000 tons have already been delivered.

Central Africa: The 1995 aggregate output of cereals is expected to be average to above-average in most countries. Above-average harvests are anticipated in Cameroon and Central African Republic. In Zaire, the growing season is starting in the south, while prospects are favourable for the recently harvested crops in the north.

For the four countries which have a January/December marketing year, the cereal import requirement was estimated at 325 000 tons. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS as of late December amount to 69 000 tons, of which 67 000 tons have been delivered. Most of this amount corresponds to emergency food aid for Rwandan refugees in eastern Zaire.

For Cameroon, Central African Republic and Congo, which have already entered their new 1995/96 marketing year, the aggregate cereal requirement in 1995/96 is estimated at 0.5 million tons, mostly wheat and rice, and the food aid requirement at only 10 000 tons.

Sub-Saharan Africa: Cereal Imports and Food Aid Requirements by Sub-Region (in thousand tons)