Africa report

RWANDA

CURRENT SITUATION

A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Rwanda found that the 1996A season has been characterised by a significant increase of 14 percent of the area under cultivation, compared to season 1995A, due to an increase of the rural population since the closing of camps for internally displaced persons and their subsequent resettlement on farms. Moreover, many oldcaseload and some newcaseload refugees have returned to cultivate. The international community continued its assistance in kind in the form of seeds and tools.

Estimated yields are generally better than for the 1995A season due to adequate and welldistributed rainfall (except in the north of Byumba, the region of Bugesera in KigaliRural, and some dry pockets in Butare) and the low incidence of pests. As long as the rains continue normally till the end of December good yields can be expected in the north (Gisenyi, Ruhengeri and Byumba) for beans, maize, wheat and (with the exception of Byumba) potatoes. The prefectures of Kibungo and Cyangugu will continue to have high banana yields while manioc yields look promising in the prefectures of KigaliRural, Gitarama, Byumba and Kibungo. The Mission estimates the aggregate food production at 1.78 million tons, against 1.43 million tons in season 1995A, a 24 percent increase. This production includes some 73 000 tons of cereals, 117 000 tons of pulses, 1.06 million tons of banana and plantain, 536 000 tons of roots and tubers. Nevertheless, total production represents only 82 percent of the average for 19891993.

Refugees continue to return to Rwanda from the surrounding countries after the civil war in 1994. The flow has slowed during the second half of 1995 but continues at a mean monthly rate of around 17 500 people. They return to their prefectures of origin where authorities allocate them land for cultivation. If 20 percent of the refugees currently in the surrounding countries return to Rwanda in the first half of 1996, the mean Rwandan population for that period will be 6.31 million, resulting in a food import requirement of 51 000 tons of cereals, 32 000 tons of pulses, 28 000 tons of banana and plantain, and 88 000 tons of roots and tubers. After converting the shortfall of the nontradeable foodstuffs (bananas and plantains, roots and tubers) into cereal equivalents, and taking into account estimates of commercial imports and programmed aid, this still leaves deficits of 71 000 tons of cereals and 26 000 tons of pulses to be met by emergency food aid. These figures include 16 000 tons of food aid in stock in June 1996.

The food supply situation remains tenuous in parts of Cyangugu, Butare, Gikongoro and Kibungo all of which still suffer from inadequate agricultural manpower. In most other areas the situation is satisfactory, with markets generally well supplied with staples by an efficient private sector. However, low purchasing power in the crippled post-war economy means that many Rwandans cannot afford to feed themselves at market prices, so many still need food aid.

Priorities for the first semester of 1996 remain: (i) helping vulnerable groups through food hand-outs and (ii) food-for-work schemes both to help those without food but able to work and to contribute towards the rehabilitation of infrastructure. In view of the good output of 1996-A there is an obvious need for careful targeting of food aid in order not to disrupt the recovery of agricultural sector by inducing food dependency. Nonetheless, about one million Rwandans will require some type of food aid over this period: 526 000 in vulnerable groups, 235 000 indirect beneficiaries in food-for-work schemes, 211 000 returnees and 72 000 recipients of institutional feeding.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1996 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)