Africa report

ETHIOPIA

CURRENT SITUATION

A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Ethiopia forecasts a 1995/96 production of cereals and pulses of 9.4 million tons, comprising 9.1 million tons of Meher and 335 000 tons of Belg crops which is some 13 percent above the recomputed data for 1994/95. Timely and well-distributed rains throughout the previous Belg and Meher rainy season not only encouraged planting and supported the satisfactory development of the crop in most zones, but also provided the draught animal force with the optimal conditions for cultivation. Further, the effects of the liberalization of the grain trade encouraged farmers to make best use of the opportunity resulting in a national area increase of 5 percent. An improved distribution of fertilizers, which increased by 16 percent and virtually no migratory pest problems completed a combination of conditions which have not been as good for many years.

On the negative side, non-migratory pests have still taken their regular toll of produce, poor access to draught animals reduced both the timeliness and quality of cultivations and planting, input supply remained well below demand and weed competition was also favoured by well distributed rains. In several areas, premature rain-stop denied the potential promised earlier but was not enough to cause concern except in chronic drought-prone lowland areas. With the exception of woredas in Central and Eastern Tigray, North and South Wollo, North Omo and West Hararghe, conditions may be regarded as comparatively comfortable. Storage losses are expected to be higher in the vulnerable crops due to increases in temporary home-made silos, longer period of storage envisaged and the presence of already noted pests and disease.

Other crops have also benefited from the well-distributed rains. The coffee crop is reported to be good and root crops are yielding well. However, the main alternative staple, enset, though comparatively immune to seasonal fluctuations is a cause for concern due to the continuing spread of bacterial wilt, which is now said to be reducing noticeably the yield in some areas.

Cereal prices, which had been comparatively stable for all crops throughout the year until August, were noted by the Mission to be falling abruptly in most areas where the harvest was underway due to the combined effects of the arrival of new grains and the off-loading of old stocks by traders and farmers in anticipation of the new supply.

Given the Government's estimate of population for the coming year of 56.67 million persons, the level of carryover stocks and the forecast production for the coming year, the Mission considers that no cereal imports will be necessary in 1996, other than limited amounts of food aid already pledged. However, despite a comfortable supply situation overall, a significant proportion of the population will be in food deficit due to displacement, underproduction or lack of access/entitlement to food supplies. The Mission estimates that about 3 million persons in the country will require emergency food assistance of 291 000 tons during 1996. In addition, some 100 000 tons of cereals for the build up of the Emergency Food Security Reserve and 30 000 tons for food aid stocks will be required in 1996. These requirements are expected to be covered by already committed pledges, a sharp drawdown of in-country food aid stocks and donor-supported local purchases estimated at 235 000 tons. Should these local purchases not materialize, additional food aid imports will be required to meet the emergency needs.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1996 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)