Africa report

KENYA

Area: 569 000 sq.km
Climate: North-east is semi-arid to arid; mountainous central and south-western areas have two rainy seasons (March-May and November-December)
Population: 27.34 million (1995 estimate), GNP per caput U.S.$ 270 (1993)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country; regular importer and occasional exporter of grain.
Logistics: Good port (Mombasa) and extensive rail and road network. Gateway to Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda
Major foodcrops: Maize, wheat, pulses, roots and tubers
Marketing year: July/June
Lean season: June-July
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 56 percent


CURRENT SITUATION

The output of the main maize crop is provisionally estimated at 2.3 million tons, 12 percent below the exceptional harvest of the previous year, although still above normal. Production of wheat is estimated at 330 000 tons, some 19 percent higher than last year and above normal.

The overall food supply situation remains stable and prices of maize have fallen sharply in recent months. The Government has announced plans for the export of 300 000 tons to generate cash to buy the new crop. However, in order to meet national food consumption needs, the country may have to import limited quantities of maize later in the year. Imports of wheat in marketing year 1995/96 (July/June) are expected to decline to some 300 000 tons



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1995/96 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)

Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
Normal production 241 33 2 587 2 861
Normal imports (incl. re-exports) 311 57 312 680
of which: Structural food aid 74 - - 74
1995/96 Domestic availability 380 75 3 368 3 823
1995 Production 330 35 2 996 3 361
Possible stock drawdown 50 40 372 462
1995/96 Utilization 680 150 3 568 4 398
Food use 648 148 2 880 3 676
of which: Local purchase requirements - - 9 9
Non-food use 32 2 418 452
Exports - - 270 270
1995/96 Import Requirement 300 75 200 575
Anticipated commercial imports 290 75 200 565
Food aid needs 10 - - 10
Current Aid Position
Food aid pledges 22 - 19 41
of which: Delivered 12 - 11 23
Donor-financed local purchases - - 9 9
Estimated per caput consumption (kg/year) 23 5 102 130
Indexes
1995 production as % of normal: 117
1995/96 import requirement as % of normal: 85
1995/96 food aid requirement as % of normal (including refugee needs): 14

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