| Area: | 96 000 sq.km |
| Climate: | Southern half tropical wet, northern half tropical wet-dry; one rainy season: March-November |
| Population: | 2.94 million (1995 estimate) (about 741 000 Liberian refugees in neighbouring countries G.N.P. per caput: n.a. |
| Specific characteristics of the country: | Low-income food-deficit country; coastal country |
| Logistics: | Ports and roads adequate |
| Major foodcrops: | Rice, roots and tubers, oils |
| Marketing year: | January/December; Lean season: July-August |
| Share of cereals in total calorie intake: | 48 percent |
CURRENT SITUATION
A recent FAO Crop Assessment Mission to Liberia has found that, even on the most optimistic reckoning, rice production in 1995 has dropped by some 73 percent from the pre-war level. Cassava production has also been hit, falling by well over 55 percent. Extensive and continuous population displacement has left large tracts of agricultural land deserted and uncultivated. Insecurity in settled areas outside the ECOMOG controlled zone, has made it difficult for farmers to store seed for planting, and most have depended on emergency seed distribution programmes. Insecurity has also discouraged weeding and crop protection activities in several of the high potential settled areas. Cassava has proved to be more resilient to short term population displacement and the consequent neglect of crops. The mission’s estimates are highly tentative and based on strong assumptions, as there has been no systematic survey of food production since 1989.
The Abuja peace agreement of August 1995 has been widely respected by the main factions. ECOMOG, the West African peace-keeping force, is now deploying throughout Liberia. As roads into the interior of the country are opened up, the most food insecure populations will start to have access to market and relief food supplies and to outlets for their goods. There are already promising signs of a growth in commercial activity and in trade in food commodities across faction lines. However, the formal export sector is paralyzed and the country carries a heavy international debt burden. There is little chance of significant public sector imports in 1996. While private commercial imports of rice and flour are set to rise in 1996, a minimum of 163 000 tons of cereal food aid will be required. UNHCR estimates that 740 000 Liberians were refugees in neighbouring countries in November 1995, of whom as many as 80 percent may return in 1996. As returnees will not be able to harvest rice for another 11 months and cassava for at least 5 months, a major influx will have clear implications for food aid needs.
CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1995 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)
| Wheat | Rice | Coarse grains | Total | |
| Normal production | - | 88 | 1 | 89 |
| Normal imports (incl. re-exports) | 10 | 150 | 20 | 180 |
| of which: Structural food aid | 5 | 100 | 20 | 125 |
| 1995 Domestic availability | 2 | 17 | 5 | 24 |
| 1994 Production | - | 17 | - | 17 |
| Possible stock drawdown | 2 | - | 5 | 7 |
| 1995 Utilization | 22 | 217 | 25 | 264 |
| Food use | 20 | 214 | 24 | 258 |
| Non-food use | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 1995 Import Requirement | 20 | 200 | 20 | 240 |
| Anticipated commercial imports | 10 | 30 | - | 40 |
| Food aid needs | 10 | 170 | 20 | 200 |
| Current Aid Position | ||||
| Food aid pledges | 119 | 39 | 85 | 243 |
| of which: Delivered | 119 | 39 | 85 | 243 |
| Estimated per caput consumption (kg/year) | 7 | 73 | 8 | 88 |
| Indexes | ||||
| 1994 production as % of normal: | 19 | |||
| 1995 import requirement as % of normal: | 133 | |||
| 1995 food aid requirement as % of normal (including refugee needs): | 160 | |||