Africa report

MADAGASCAR

Area: 582 000 sq.km
Climate: Eastern coast is tropical wet, the rest tropical wet-dry. Rains in October-March; tropical cyclones.
Population: 14.3 million (1995 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 240 (1993)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics: Dilapidated roads and lack of spare parts and tyres
Major foodcrops: Rice, roots, tubers, maize, fruit
Marketing year: April/March; Lean season: February/March
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 60 percent


CURRENT SITUATION

Scattered rains were received from mid-October to the first dekad of November in the central and plateau areas which benefited early transplanting of the paddy crop and increased soil water reserves. Satellite imagery from the first and second dekads of December showed light to medium rains across the country, revising the prospects for a favourable 1995/96 crop.

Following a good rice crop in 1994/95, commercial imports in 1995/96 are forecast to decline. The food aid requirement is estimated at 27 000 tons; of 24 000 tons pledged, some 13 000 tons have been delivered so far.



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1995/96 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)

Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
Normal production 7 1 651 152 1 810
Normal imports (incl. re-exports) 48 53 10 111
of which: Structural food aid 13 11 10 34
1995/96 Production 10 1 634 161 1 805
1995/96 Utilization 70 1 714 167 1 951
Food use 69 1 563 114 1 746
Non-food use 1 151 32 184
Possible stock build-up - - 1 1
Exports - - 20 20
1995/96 Import Requirement 60 80 6 146
Anticipated commercial imports 45 74 - 119
Food aid needs 15 6 6 27
Current Aid Position
Food aid pledges 12 4 8 24
of which: Delivered 12 1 - 13
Donor-financed local purchases - 1 - 1
Estimated per caput consumption (kg/year) 5 106 8 119
Indexes
1995 production as % of normal: 100
1996 import requirement as % of normal: 132
1996 food aid requirement as % of normal (including refugee needs): 79

TOC