Land is being prepared for planting of the 1996 main season maize and paddy crops from April.
Harvesting of the 1995/96 second season crop is about to be completed under generally dry weather. Aggregate cereal output for both seasons is provisionally estimated at a low 160 000 tons, 27 percent down from last year's below-average production. The decline reflects a reduction in paddy from an average 185 000 tons last year to 122 000 tons. This is largely due to the import liberalization programme adopted by the Government at the beginning of 1995. Production of maize increased slightly but remained below average. The crop was damaged by torrential rains in September, particularly in the province of Guanacaste, during harvesting of the first season crop. Maize imports, mostly yellow, in marketing year 1995/96 (August/July) are forecast to be 270 000 tons, compared to 284 000 tons in the previous year. Paddy imports increased in 1995 (January/December) to 72 000 tons from 30 000 tons in the previous year.
Widespread rains in the second half of December, particularly in western parts, delayed harvesting of the 1995 main season cereal crops and planting of the second season crops. Aggregate 1995 cereal output is estimated to have increased slightly from the low level of the previous year, though production remained below average. Maize production is put at the slightly-below normal level of 77 000 tons and paddy output is estimated at 50 percent below the average of the last 5 years. By contrast, satisfactory results are expected in production of citrus and minor food crops. In general, food production remains below domestic requirements.
The 1995/96 sugar cane harvest, the main foreign exchange earner, started in November and should extend to April/May next year. Official estimates put production at 4.5 million tons, some 1.2 million tons higher than the poor crop in 1994/95.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC (8 February)
Land preparation is underway for planting the 1996 first season irrigated paddy crop. The outlook is favourable due to adequate water reservoir levels.
Normal rainfall in November/December favoured third season coarse grain crops to be harvested from April. Aggregate production of coarse grains, largely maize, is expected to be an above-average 60 000 tons, compared to 41 000 tons in 1994/95, when crops were affected by adverse weather. Paddy, the main cereal, is provisionally estimated at an above- average 520 000 tons, 38 percent higher than the reduced output in 1994/95.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1995 (January/December) are estimated at about 257 000 tons, slightly above the previous year. Maize imports, by contrast, decreased to 560 000 tons from 674 000 tons in 1994, mostly as a result of high international prices and some reduction in demand from the poultry industry. Paddy imports are estimated at some 30 000 tons, compared to almost no imports in 1994. This principally reflects reduced planting in 1995 due to strong competition from imports resulting from the import liberalization policy adopted by the Government at the beginning of 1995.
Harvesting of the 1995/96 second season coarse grain crop, mainly sorghum, is almost completed. Despite heavy rains in December which affected crops, a satisfactory output is expected. Aggregate maize and sorghum output is currently estimated at some 653 000 tons and 196 000 tons respectively, 36 percent and 8 percent higher than the drought affected crop in the previous year. By contrast, the output of beans was lower than in the previous year, due to higher stocks and lower prices in the domestic market. Harvesting of the main season paddy crop has been completed and land is being prepared for planting of the irrigated summer crop. Aggregate paddy production is estimated at 60 000 tons, slightly below last year, reflecting reduced plantings due to competition from low-cost imports and almost no increase in consumer demand.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1995/96 (July/June) are expected to increase from 153 000 tons last year to 195 000 tons, due to expanding demand for wheat-based products and low levels of carryover stocks. Maize imports, mostly yellow, are expected to decrease from 270 000 tons to about 120 000 tons, mainly due to some recovery in domestic production and high international prices. Paddy imports in 1995 (January/December) increased to 39 000 tons from 25 000 tons in 1994.
Infestation by the Hibiscus Mealy Bug or Pink Mealy Bug continues. The southern and western areas of the island are most severely affected. Significant losses to the economy are reported, particularly to major foreign exchange earners such as cocoa and ornamental plants, as well as to vegetables and minor food crops, which have resulted in shortages and high prices on local markets.
The damage has serious implications for the food security of the country and the infestation poses great risks for the Caribbean region.
Harvesting of the 1995/96 second season cereal crops is underway. Latest forecasts put aggregate cereal production in 1995 at about 1.5 million tons, 10 percent higher than the previous year during which crops were affected by drought. This is attributed to a 7 percent increase in maize area and satisfactory yields due to favourable weather conditions. Sorghum production is also expected to increase from 26 000 tons to an average 33 000 tons, while paddy output is estimated at a slightly above-average 50 000 tons.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1995/96 (July/June) are expected to decrease from 376 000 tons in the previous year to 310 000 tons, due to high international prices and a relatively high level of carryover stocks. Maize imports are anticipated to decrease from 222 000 tons to 175 000 tons, as a result of an increase in production and higher prices for imports. Paddy imports in 1996 are expected to decrease from the 37 000 tons imported in 1995.
Growing conditions for the 1995/96 second season cereal crops have been satisfactory. Maize and sorghum production in 1995 are provisionally estimated at an above-average 615 000 tons and 76 000 tons respectively, compared to 462 000 tons and 55 000 tons in 1994, during which crops were affected by drought. Paddy output is estimated at a below-average 45 000 tons.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1995/96 (July/June) are expected to decrease to 175 000 tons from 183 000 tons in the previous year. This is attributed to lower consumer demand, as a result of higher import prices and the general economic situation of the country. Maize imports are forecast to decrease from 315 000 tons to 60 000 tons, due to a recovery in production and high import prices, while paddy imports in 1996 (January/December) are anticipated to be similar to the 23 000 tons imported in 1995.
Harvesting of the 1995 coarse grain crop has been completed. Aggregate coarse grain production is provisionally estimated at a low 19.1 million tons, 14 percent lower than last year and well below average. Maize production decreased from 18.2 million tons in 1994 to 15.5 million tons, while sorghum output declined from 3.7 million tons to 2.9 million tons. Lower production is due to a significant reduction in area planted and yields, as a consequence of high input and financing costs caused by devaluation. The situation was compounded by serious damage to crops by adverse weather. Maize and sorghum imports in 1995/96 (October/September) are forecast at some 3.5 million tons and 2.5 million tons respectively.
Prospects for the recently planted 1995/96 wheat crop are unfavourable. Harvesting is due to start from April and early forecasts point to a reduction in output from 4.2 million tons last year to 3.6 million tons. This is due to a reduction in planted area and an expected reduction in yields, as a consequence of adverse weather and financial constraints at farm level.
Planting of the 1995/96 third season ("apante") crop has been recently completed in parts of the country. Despite torrential rains in September, which caused damage to maize and other crops, aggregate cereal output in 1995 is forecast to be an above-average 526 000 tons, 5 percent higher than the previous year, when crops were affected by drought. Maize production is provisionally estimated at an average 230 000 tons. Sorghum output is expected to increase to 126 000 tons from 91 000 tons in the previous year while paddy is expected to increase slightly from last year's satisfactory output.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1995/96 (July/June) are expected to be some 110 000 tons, compared to 100 000 tons in the previous year. Maize imports are forecast to decrease from 107 000 tons to 48 000 tons, due to recovery in production and high international prices. Paddy imports in 1996 are estimated at 30 000 tons, similar to 1995.
ST. KITTS AND NEVIS (8 February)
The country is still affected by the infestation of the Hibiscus Mealy Bug or Pink Mealy Bug. Food crops in general and major export crops, partly used to cover the cost of food imports, continue to be threatened by the infestation. Depending on the full extent of the damage, the food security situation in the country and possibly the sub-region could be serious.
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO (8 February)
The country continues to be affected by the pest Hibiscus Mealy Bug or Pink Mealy Bug. Food and cash crops are seriously threatened, with serious implications for the food security of the country.