The aggregate 1995 wheat crop is estimated at 25.4 million tons, 2.3 million tons above the previous year but still well below the level in the early 1990s before farmers shifted a substantial area of land to oilseed crops. However, because of attractive wheat prices this year, early indications point to a revision of the trend and a significant increase in the planting of wheat in May-June for the main 1996 crop. The aggregate 1995 coarse grains output is estimated at 24.3 million tons some 0.5 million tons above the previous year. Like wheat, the bulk of the 1996 coarse grains will not be planted until the spring.
The latest official estimate for the 1994 wheat crop is 59.5 million tons, 3.7 million tons below the previous year, but still about average for the past five years. Prospects for the 1996 winter crop, which accounts for about 75 percent of total wheat output are mixed. Confirming earlier expectations, plantings are estimated to have expanded by 7 percent, but conditions for crops have been far from ideal in many parts. Moisture was scarce in the major producing areas after planting in October and November, resulting in poor development, and higher vulnerability of plants to adverse weather during the winter period. In late January, freezing temperatures and severe winds hit a large area of the Kansas wheat plains causing significant damage to some crops. However, it is still too early to assess the full extent of the damage. For the 1996 wheat crop, much will still depend on the weather and the level of planting this spring.
The final official estimate of the 1994 coarse grain crop is 209.6 million tons, 75.5 million tons down from last year�s record crop and below the average of the past five years. Of the total, maize is estimated to account for some 187 million tons. As regards the 1996 maize crops to be planted this spring, the Area Reduction Programme (ARP) has been set at zero percent, against 7.5 percent in the previous year. In addition, farmers with land set-aside under the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) whose contracts were due to expire on 30 September this year can opt out of the program in time for spring planting. Although it is still very uncertain exactly how much land will come back into production following these policy revisions, it is clear that the maize area could increase substantially from the previous year. One early unofficial survey points to an expansion of at least 10 percent in maize plantings However, much will depend on the weather at planting time.