Harvesting of the 1995 wheat crop is almost complete. Official estimates put production at some 8.7 million tons, compared to a favourable crop of 11.1 million tons in the previous year. The decline is attributed to a reduction in planting and yields caused by periods of unusually dry weather. A lack of soil moisture affected most producing areas, particularly the provinces of Cordoba, La Pampa, Santa Fe and the area of Bahia Blanca, in the southwest of the Buenos Aires Province, which registered the largest reduction in acreage. Damage also occurred due to winds and hail in mid- November in the Benito Juarez and Tandil areas, in the South of Buenos Aires Province.
Light to moderate rains in January have greatly benefited plantings of the 1995/96 maize crop, which have increased noticeably from last year and more intensive use of fertilizers is expected. Early forecasts indicate that output should be satisfactory at some 11 million tons. Planting of the sorghum crop is also about to be completed.
The 1995/96 main season cereal and potato crops are on the ground for harvesting from April, while fieldwork continues under normal conditions. The area planted to wheat is provisionally estimated close to the satisfactory level of last year, largely due to increased domestic prices and steady demand for wheat-based products. Maize plantings are also close to the previous year, but increased yields are anticipated due to beneficial rains, regularly distributed over the main producing areas at planting and during the growing season. The outlook for the potato crop is also favourable.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1995/96 (July/June) are expected to decrease from 337 000 tons last year to 302 000 tons. This reflects high international prices and a relatively high level of carryover stocks.
Harvesting of the 1995 wheat crop has been recently completed and output is estimated at some 1.7 million tons, compared to 2.1 million tons in 1994. The decline is mainly due to a significant reduction in area, particularly in the large producing state of Rio Grande do Sul, to unfavourable weather and lower use of fertilizers caused by financial constraints in the agricultural sector. In order to meet domestic demand, presently estimated at about 8 million tons, wheat imports in marketing year 1995/96 (October/September) are expected to increase from 6.3 million tons to about 6.5 million tons.
Main maize producing states received normal rainfall since late December, benefiting the recently planted 1995/96 crop. Harvesting is due to start from March and early forecasts indicate that output will decrease from the record 36 million tons in 1995 to about 32 million tons. Extremely dry conditions, particularly in the main producing states of Parana, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, reduced area planted and affected growth. This was compounded by a decrease in the use of fertilizers resulting from credit restrictions to farmers. By contrast, abundant rainfall has been reported over the Northeast areas, which is historically a drought-prone area, and maize production is anticipated to increase.
Below-normal rains since October have seriously affected the 1995/96 wheat crop which is presently being harvested. Early assessment of damage indicates that production should decrease considerably from the below-average 1.4 million tons of last year. The drought has particularly affected some of the Central areas and most of the South, where severe damage is also reported to the barley and potato crops, as well as to other cultivations in general. Wheat imports in the 1996/97 marketing year (February/January) are anticipated to increase from last year�s receipts of about 650 000 tons.
Harvesting of the recently planted 1995/96 maize crop is due to start from March. Output is provisionally estimated at 930 000 tons, similar to last year�s average output. Paddy production is also expected to be normal.
Light to moderate rains favoured the development of the 1995/96 second season cereal crops. Harvesting is underway and wheat output is provisionally estimated at a normal 95 000 tons. By contrast, aggregate maize and sorghum production are expected to decrease by some 100 000 tons and 50 000 tons respectively compared to the previous year. This is attributed to a reduction in planting, particularly in the first season crop, during which purchasing negotiations for produce between farmers and the processing industry were delayed. Paddy production is estimated to remain similar to production in the previous year, which was about average.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1996 (January/December) are expected to increase to 940 000 tons from 900 000 tons in 1995, while maize imports are projected to decline by some 300 000 tons. This reflects high international prices and large carryover stocks. Paddy imports are forecast to decline by some 30 000 tons compared to the preceding year.
Planting of the 1996 main cereal crop is underway. In coastal areas, maize and paddy planting has been affected by a lack of rainfall, particularly in December. In the highlands, the cereal and potato crops have benefited from normal rains; however, lower yields of maize and potato are anticipated as a result of cold weather in the first half of December. In eastern areas, where yellow maize is grown throughout the year and planting of paddy has just begun, below-normal rainfall is reported. In aggregate, the area planted to wheat is expected to be similar to last year, whilst maize area is expected to increase in response to attractive prices and increasing domestic and export demand. The area planted to paddy is also anticipated to be above average.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1996 (January/December) are forecast to be similar to the 390 000 tons imported last year, while maize (yellow) imports are expected to decline from 54 000 tons to about 25 000 tons, mainly as a consequence of high international prices.
Normal rainfall resumed in late December in some of the northern coastal areas of Piura and Lambayeque, increasing irrigation supplies, which had diminished critically as a consequence of insufficient rains earlier. More rainfall was also received in the plains of Arequipa and in the highlands, though more is needed to replenish reservoirs. Latest estimates indicate an aggregate cereal output of some 2.3 million tons in 1995, compared to 2.4 million tons in 1994. The decline is due to lower production of paddy in the provinces of Piura and Lambayeque, which were affected by dry weather. By contrast, wheat and maize output are estimated at an above-average 127 000 tons and 815 000 tons respectively.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1996 (January/December) are forecast to increase to 1.3 million tons from 1.2 million tons in 1995, while maize imports are estimated to be similar to the 700 000 tons imported last year.
Harvesting of the 1995/96 wheat crop has been completed under normal conditions, while that of maize and barley is about to start. Wheat production is provisionally estimated at some 380 000 tons, compared to 450 000 tons in the previous year. Maize is expected to increase significantly from 1995, due to an increase in planting as a result of higher international prices. Production of barley is also anticipated to increase considerably. Harvesting of paddy is due to start from March and early indications are that output should be above-normal. This is attributed to an increase in planting largely in response to expanding exports, in particular to neighbouring countries.
Harvesting of the 1995 cereal crops was completed in December under normal conditions. Aggregate output increased to 2.1 million tons from 1.9 million tons in the previous year. This is mostly due to an increase in paddy production from 590 000 tons to about 765 000 tons, as a result of increasing demand for exports to neighbouring countries. By contrast, maize output decreased from 884 000 tons to 847 000 tons, due to a reduction in yields as a consequence of high cost farm inputs and financial constraints at farm level.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1995/96 (July/June) are expected to be similar to the 1.1 million tons imported in the previous year, while maize imports are forecast to decline by 100 000 tons, due to high international prices and some decrease in feed demand.
Land is being prepared for planting of the 1996 maize and paddy crops from March.