Some localized rains occurred in January, during the dry season in the south of the country. More regular rains started in mid February in the south, remained sparse during the last week and resumed in early March. Land preparation and planting of the first maize crop are underway. Dry conditions prevail in the north. Total cereal production in 1995 is estimated at 637 000 tons, including 480 000 tons of maize, 27 000 tons of millet, 116 000 tons of sorghum, 10 000 tons of paddy and 4 000 tons of fonio. Although production remained above average, it was some 12 000 tons below 1994.
The food supply situation remains satisfactory, though prices in rural areas were above average at the beginning of the year at the prospect of a mediocre second season crop and stockpiling by traders. Domestic prices and food availability were also influenced by unofficial cross border trade with neighbouring countries like Togo and Burkina Faso. Maize imports from Nigeria, on the other hand, have increased following the devaluation of the Naira. The cereal import requirement in 1996 is estimated at 255 000 tons of wheat and rice. There are approximately 20 000 assisted Togolese refugees in the country, whose nutritional status is reported to be satisfactory. It is expected that repatriation will be completed by June. In contrast, since the beginning of the year, Ogonis refugees have been arriving from Nigeria. They were numbered at about 800 by late March.
Rainfall began in mid-April and land preparation is about to start. The final official estimate of 1995 cereal production is 2.31 million tons (including paddy), some 6 percent lower than estimated by an FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission in October 1995. The reduction is mainly due to a substantial decline in maize production. Cereal production fell in 15 provinces, notably in Soum, Seno, Yatenga and Bam, in the north, where the decline exceeded 20 percent. The overall decline was offset to some extent by increases in other provinces, particularly in Gnagna and Nahouri.
Although 1995 cereal production remained about average, food supply difficulties are reported in some areas where cereal prices increased sharply following a poor maize harvest and substantial grain exports to neighbouring countries. In December 1995, the Government made an international appeal for emergency assistance for 700 000 people in 17 provinces considered most at risk. It estimated food aid needs at almost 25 000 tons of cereals for three months and indicated that purchases could be made locally or borrowed from the National Security Stock, the level of which is currently 27 000 tons plus a financial fund allowing the purchase of a further 25 000 tons. A government assessment mission recently visited affected provinces and recommended selling 9 700 tons of cereals at a subsidized price in 11 provinces before May. These cereals can be taken from the national security stock and discussions are underway with donors to schedule its reconstitution. In early April, a meeting was also held with NGOs to organize the programme and coordinate emergency activities. Therefore, donors are urged to undertake local purchases in response to the appeal, or as part of their on- going or future food aid programmes. Tuareg refugees who have fled from Mali in the last five years (mainly since June 1994) are also currently receiving food assistance. UNHCR and WFP estimate their total number at 39 000, of whom 33 000 are receiving food assistance in refugee camps. Since the beginning of the year an epidemic of meningitis affected about 17 000 people, of which more than 2 000 died.
Seasonal dry conditions prevail. Maize production in 1995 has been revised slightly downwards from 9 000 tons to 7 900 tons, which is below average though three times higher than the reduced crop in 1994.
Despite a limited harvest, markets are well supplied and the overall food supply situation is satisfactory, as the country imports the bulk of its consumption requirement. In 1996, the cereal import requirement is estimated at 90 000 tons, most of which is in the form of food aid.
The berber� recession crop is anticipated to be below normal in the sub-prefectures of Ab�ch� rural, Am-Dam (in Ouadda�) and Oum-Hadjer (in Batha). Rainfall has begun in the south and land preparation has started. The final 1995 production estimates are slightly below estimates of the October crop assessment mission, indicating a total cereal production of 908 000 tons. This is due to a reduction in millet and maize production, partly compensated by an increase of sorghum and rice production. This production is 23 percent lower than the 1994 record harvest but remains above average.
Following two successive good harvests, the overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Markets are generally well supplied. Cereal prices increased somewhat, particularly for millet and maize in Kanem. There is risk of food shortages in the traditional food deficit areas of the north. During a survey undertaken in February, the national early warning system estimated that a total of 333 000 persons were vulnerable to food shortages in several villages of the prefectures of Kanem, Biltine, Batha, Ouadda�, Lac and Chari- Baguirmi, in order of importance. It estimated that about 9 600 tons of food aid is needed for a period of 4 months beginning April/May 1996. Cereals can be drawn from the national food security reserve. An FAO Mission in late 1995 recommended that the bulk of national food security stock be located at N�Djamena and that the quantities of food aid determined by the national early warning system be distributed to the regions before the rainy season. The fall in domestic crop production in 1995 has lead to a slight increase in cereal import requirement for 1995/96, which is estimated at 65 000 tons of wheat and rice. The structural food aid requirement is estimated at 2 000 tons.
Seasonal dry conditions have prevailed since the beginning of the year, with periodic rains in mid February in the centre. There was substantial rainfall in the first dekad of March, benefiting planting of the first maize crop. Following favourable growing conditions throughout the season, the 1995 aggregate cereal production is estimated at 1.4 million tons.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Inflation in 1995 declined to 7.7 percent from 32.2 percent in 1994 following the devaluation of the CFA Franc. In order to encourage local milling, on 1 January, the Government announced a rise of import taxes of 10 percent for wheat and 30 percent for wheat flour and the liberalization of prices of flour on the local market. WFP and UNHCR are currently implementing a planned strategy for phasing out self sufficient Liberian refugees from free food distribution. As a result, only 250 000 refugees were retained in January/February for food distribution. Some small scale spontaneous repatriation has occurred since the earlier peace agreement in Liberia though recent fighting in Monrovia in early April may cause further population movement within C�te d'Ivoire.
Seasonal dry conditions prevail. The final estimates of 1995 cereal production have been released for coarse grains (75 000 tons) but not yet for rice. With preliminary rice production forecast at 26 000 tons, this gives a total of 101 000 tons of cereals, which is slightly below the production of 106 000 tons in 1994, but remains about average.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. The rice market is stable but prices are higher than last year, due mainly to higher international prices. The cereal import requirement for the 1995/96 marketing year (November/October) is estimated at 100 000 tons and the food aid requirement at 11 000 tons.
Rains began in the second dekad of February in the south, stopped in the third and resumed in early March. Land preparation and planting of the main maize crop are underway. As a result of an increase in cropped area coupled with favourable rainfall, aggregate cereal production in 1995 is estimated at 1.8 million tons, which is higher than record output in 1993. However, ethnic conflict at the beginning of 1995 and severe flooding in the north disrupted rice, millet and sorghum production in some areas.
Following a good cereal harvest and an increase in root and tuber production, the food supply situation is favourable. Food aid is being distributed to about 71 000 Togolese refugees remaining in Ghana. Some spontaneous repatriation occurred in recent months and it is expected that most refugees will be repatriated by June. About 14 000 Liberian refugees also receive assistance.
Seasonal dry conditions prevail in the major part of the country. Rains started in mid February over the south-east, stopped during the last dekad of February and resumed in March. Land preparation for rice planting is underway in this area. Reflecting widespread rainfall in 1995, the aggregate output of cereals is estimated at 840 000 tons. The area planted remained unchanged, with some decline in millet and sorghum area and an increase in the area under cotton.
The food supply situation is satisfactory. Prices of local rice decreased significantly after harvest, but remained generally above the previous year. In 1996, the country will continue to import wheat and rice. Following the regional phasing out strategy now implemented as in C�te d�Ivoire, some 113 000 Liberian refugees are continuing to receive food assistance during the first part of the year under general distribution while an additional 100 000 could be assisted within targeted feeding programmes. There are presently some 400 000 Liberian refugees and 200 000 Sierra Leonean refugees in the country, though recent fighting in Liberia may lead to an increase in refugees. In late March, attacks on Liberian refugee camps were reported, causing several deaths.
Seasonal dry conditions prevail. An FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission in October 1995, estimated total 1995/96 cereal production (including paddy) at a record of 201 000 tons compared to 175 000 tons in 1994. Rice production increased slightly to an estimated 133 000 tons, whilst the output of coarse grains increased by some 39 percent, due to well- distributed rainfall.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Markets are well supplied and prices remain mostly stable. Cereal imports for domestic use and re-exports in 1996 are estimated at 70 000 tons, mostly rice. Structural food aid requirement is estimated at 6 000 tons.
Recent resurgence of civil strife in Monrovia after a brief spell of peace is set to aggravate the already precarious food supply situation in the country. On 6 April, serious fighting between various factions spread to the capital, Monrovia, from the Sinkor suburb in the northeast. Thousands of civilians fled their homes. It is the first time since the Abuja peace agreement in August 1995 between seven Liberian factions, that fighting is again affecting Monrovia. The present disturbances will severely undermine the fragile peace process and are likely to cause a fresh wave of population displacement. Emergency and project operations, which were generally monitored from Monrovia, will be hampered, and the planned return of refugees from neighbouring countries will be delayed.
Expectations of a slight recovery in domestic production in 1996 will not be realized if fighting spreads from Monrovia to rural areas, where rice planting is underway. Even before the present disturbances, extensive and continuous population displacement had left large tracts of agricultural land deserted and insecurity in settled areas outside the ECOMOG controlled zone made it difficult for farmers to store seed for planting, and most were dependent on emergency seed distribution programmes. Insecurity also discouraged weeding and crop protection activities in several high potential settled areas. As a consequence, rice and cassava production in 1995 declined by as much as 77 percent and 50 percent respectively from levels before the civil war.
Before the recent upsurge in fighting in Monrovia, although access to counties in the extreme west, the north and the east was still very insecure, roads into the interior of the country were gradually opening up and it was anticipated that people would begin to have access to market and relief food supplies and to outlets for their goods, reflecting promising signs of a growth in commercial activity and in trade in food commodities across faction lines. However, the formal export sector remained paralyzed and the country carries a heavy international debt. There is little chance of significant public sector imports in 1996. Continued large scale emergency assistance will be required throughout 1996.
Seasonal dry conditions prevail. An FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission in late October estimated total 1995 cereal production at 2 178 000 tons, including paddy. This represents a decrease of some 11 percent, compared to a record output of 2 457 000 tons in 1994/95 and is attributed to a reduction in area planted and yields. Isolated Desert Locusts may be present in a few places of the Adrar des Iforas.
Following two favourable harvests in succession, the overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Nevertheless, some areas are facing difficulties following poor harvest and pest attacks, notably in the structurally deficit areas of the north. The national early warning system indicates that the three arrondissements of Bamba, Bourem and T�m�ra of Bourem circle in Gao region are facing food shortages and are receiving food aid, estimated at a total of 4 000 tons of cereals for about 64 500 persons over 7 months. In addition, several other arrondissements of Bandiagara, Djenn� and T�nenkou circles in Mopti region, of Abeibara, Kidal, Tessalit and Tin Essako circles in Kidal region as well as the arrondissements of Dou�kir� and Goudam in Tombouctou region and N�Tillit and Almoustarat in Gao region are at risk of food shortages. For the affected population in these areas, estimated at 317 100 persons, the early warning system recommends a total of 8 567 tons of food aid. Elsewhere, the food supply situation is reported to be satisfactory or, if production decreased, other sources of income are available. Assistance will also be necessary for the Tuaregs who have started to return from Mauritania in Kidal region: 60 tons for the camp of Annefis (950 persons) and 20 tons for the camp of Inabague (300 persons). Some surplus coarse grains are available in the south and can be mobilized to cover food aid needs mentioned above. For the 1995/96 marketing year (November/October), the cereal import requirement is estimated at 105 000 tons and food aid requirement at 25 000 tons.
Seasonal dry conditions prevail. Recession crops have been harvested and prospects are promising. Aggregate 1995 cereal production (including paddy), as estimated by an FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission in late October, reached 192 600 tons, slightly below the record output of 1994. Desert Locust activity has decreased since late December. A few small and low density hopper bands mixed with immature adults have been reported over a total of 160 hectares in two places south of Atar in western Adrar of Mauritania during the first dekad of March. Ground treatments including farmer control covered 280 hectares. There were also a few patches of hoppers near the border with the southern Morocco. Elsewhere, survey teams found scattered solitary adults and late instar hoppers at several locations in western Adrar and south-western Tiris Zemmour.
Following two successive bumper crops, the overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Prices of cereals increased slightly in January but markets are well supplied. In the 1995/96 marketing year (November/October), cereal imports for domestic use and re-export are estimated at 250 000 tons and food aid requirement at 50 000 tons. Food assistance is being distributed to Tuareg refugees in camps in the east of the country. Their number is currently estimated at 34 000 compared to 80 000 in late 1994. Disturbances in food distributions due to stock problems is thought to have contributed to an increase in malnutrition rates, notably of children. Over a period of a year, 9 000 refugees returned to Mali. Out of the 34 000 remaining, about 1 000 per month are anticipated to return.
Seasonal dry conditions prevail. The final estimates of 1995 cereal production have recently been released. They indicate an aggregate production of cereals of 2 090 000 tons, which is significantly lower than crop assessment mission estimates in October 1995, mainly due to a substantial decline in millet production. Isolated Desert Locusts may be present in a few places of Tamesna.
Following two successive above-average harvests in 1994 and 1995, the food supply situation is satisfactory at national level. Nevertheless, several populations remain at risk of food shortages in structurally deficit areas, notably in Diffa, Agadez and Tillabery departments where recent surveys indicated unusually high levels of malnutrition. In mid- January, the Government made an appeal for international assistance, estimating the needs at some 129 000 tons of cereals and 10 000 tons of feed supplement. In mid-march, the national early warning system warned that the situation was alarming in some areas and that 9 400 tons of cereals were urgently needed. These cereals can be drawn from national security stocks, provided donors provide assistance with replenishment. Several donors confirmed food aid pledges or availability of funds for local purchases. On-going or new food for work projects are also targeted for vulnerable populations in areas at risk. For the 1995/96 marketing year (November/October), the cereal import requirement is estimated by FAO at 200 000 tons and food aid requirement at 50 000 tons. Part of the import requirement can be covered by traditional imports from neighbouring Nigeria.
In the south, light but widespread rainfall started in mid February. Precipitation increased during the second week of March. Land preparation has begun for millet, sorghum, rice and the first maize crop. Seasonal dry conditions prevail in northern and central areas of the country. Reflecting favourable growing conditions, 1995 aggregate cereal production is estimated at about 13.3 million tons, which is slightly above average. This was achieved despite a government ban on fertilizer imports.
Following a good harvest, the food supply situation is satisfactory and markets are well supplied. The country imports substantial quantities of wheat and rice. For the 1995/96 marketing year (July/June), the cereal import requirement is estimated at about 0.9 million tons.
Seasonal dry conditions prevail and recession crops are been harvested along the Senegal river. The final estimates of 1995 cereal production have been recently released. They indicate an aggregate output of cereals of 1 109 000 tons, including paddy, which is slightly below estimates made by a joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission in mid-October last year and 12 percent above 1994. Production of millet increased significantly by 20 percent, production of sorghum increased slightly by 18 percent whilst that of maize and rice decreased somewhat. Production of groundnut and niebe increased and those of cotton and cassava decreased.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory and urban markets are well supplied. Prices of millet, sorghum and maize increased in January but they decreased slightly in February in both rural and urban markets. Inflation in 1995 declined to 8 percent from 32 percent in 1994, following the devaluation of the CFA Franc. Some assistance may be needed for the procurement of surplus coarse grains in the south and its movement to traditional deficit areas in the north. For the 1995/96 marketing year (November/October), the cereal import requirement is estimated at 700 000 tons, mostly rice and wheat, and the structural food aid requirement at 27 000 tons.
Seasonal dry conditions prevail. As a result of disrupted farming activities and population displacement, the 1995 cereal output is estimated at 340 000 tons, about 60 percent of pre-war production. Rice production, which represents 80 percent of cereal output has been the most affected by civil war.
A peace summit was organized in late March. Overall security situation improved since the cease fire in mid-March and internally displaced people returned to villages in Bo and Magburaka provinces. However, violations of the cease fire are frequent in the south. As a result of disrupted farming activities and population displacement, cereal output in 1995 is estimated at 340 000 tons, which is about 60 percent of production pre-civil war. Rice production, which represents 80 percent of national cereal output, has been the most affected. The security situation remains tight in the south- east of the country, where villages in Bo and Moyamba districts have suffered devastation. Ambushes on roads from Freetown to Bo, Kenema and Makeni are severely disrupting commercial trade and food aid deliveries. National elections took place in late February, and a new civilian president has been elected. Peace talks between the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) and the new head of government are now underway. The number of internally displaced people is currently estimated at 1.6 million. In addition, 250 000 Sierra Leoneans are reported in neighbouring Guinea and about 120 000 in western Liberia. A new WFP emergency operation has just been approved to provide relief food aid for the war- affected population in 1996. The caseload has been increased from a planned figure of 500 000 in 1995 to 841 650 internally displaced persons and refugee beneficiaries, including 121 650 beneficiaries under targeted and institutional feeding programmes. The main locations for general food distribution are Bo (235 000 persons), Kenema (175 000) and Makeni (110 000). This represents a total of 41 500 tons of food commodities of which almost 33 000 tons of cereals.
Rains started during the second dekad of February in the south, stopped during the third dekad and were abundant during the first two dekads of March. Planting of the first maize crop and yams is underway in the south. Reflecting abundant rainfall during the growing season, the aggregate output of cereals in 1995 is estimated at 491 000 tons, which is higher than average though lower than record output in 1993. This is due to irregular rains in some areas in the south. Flooding in central parts of the country in September also disrupted maize and sorghum production.
Markets are well supplied and the overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Inflation seems set to fall to 8 percent in 1996, as the effects of the CFA franc devaluation in January 1994 are finally absorbed. Approximately 6 000 refugees from Ghana still remain in Togo.