Africa report 05/96 af605p.htm

ERITREA

Area:	124 320 sq.km
Climate:	Highland areas: tropical wet/dry with unreliable rains. Lowlands: semi-arid to arid
Population:	2.978 million (1996 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: n.a.
Specific characteristics of the country:	Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics:	Roads inadequate, gateway to northern Ethiopia
Major foodcrops:	Sorghum, teff, millet, maize, pulses
Marketing year:	January/December; Lean season: August-November
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:	73 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

Cereal and pulse production declined sharply in 1995, due to erratic rainfall during the season and localized pest damage. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission last November estimated output of cereals and pulses at 149 000 tons, 42 percent below the harvest in the previous year and well below average for the past three years. As a result, the 1996 cereal import requirement increased substantially to 291 000 tons. Commercial imports are expected to reach 100 000 tons, reflecting the positive impact of a liberalized import policy and increased flows from Ethiopia, where a bumper crop was harvested last December. This leaves a deficit of 191 000 tons to be covered by food aid, out of which 79 000 tons are needed for some 750 000 vulnerable people, including farmers who harvested a poor crop, mostly in the areas of Seraye, Akele Guzai, Senhit and Barka provinces, and people without adequate access to food. Against these requirements, food aid pledges amounted to 58 000 tons by mid-March, of which 15 000 tons have been delivered.While food shortages have not yet been reported, unless substantial food assistance is mobilized urgently the situation is expected to deteriorate from May/June, when food stocks would have been depleted.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1996 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)

	Wheat	Rice	Coarse grains	Total
1995 Production	9	-	133	142
1995 Utilization	179	-	254	433
Food use 1/	164	-	234	398
Non-food use	-	-	20	20
Stock build up	15	-	-	15
1996 Import Requirement	170	-	121	291
Anticipated commercial imports	70	-	30	100
Food aid needs	100	-	91	191
Current Aid Position
Food aid pledges	44	-	14	58
of which: Delivered	5	-	10	15
Estimated per caput consumption (kg/year)	55	-	79	134
Indexes
1995 production as % of normal:
1996 import requirement as % of normal:
1996 food aid requirement as % of normal (including refugee needs):

1/ The food needs of 100 000 returnees from Sudan in 1996 are not included.

FAO/GIEWS - April 1996