Africa report 05/96 af605p.htm

ETHIOPIA

Area:	976 680 sq.km
Climate:	Northern coastal area and lowlands in the south and the east are semi-arid to arid; the rest of the country has a highland rainy climate with mild winter.
Population:	56.67 million (1996 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 100 (1993)
Specific characteristics of the country:	Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics:	Land-locked country, roads inadequate
Major foodcrops:	Maize, teff, barley, sorghum, wheat, pulses, enset (false banana)
Marketing year:	January/December; Lean season: August-November
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:	69 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

Average to above average rainfall in the third dekad of February and first half of March, following dry weather earlier, improved prospects for the 1996 “Belg” crops to be harvested from June. However, more rainfall is still needed in western areas of Oromia. The Belg season accounts for only about 7 percent of total cereal production but in some areas it provides over 50 percent of annual food supplies.Abundant rainfall in March also replenished soil moisture for land preparation and planting of the 1996 main “Meher” cereal crop. Pasture conditions are also reported to be in good condition, following an improvement in rainfall.“Meher” cereal production in 1995 was estimated record, reflecting satisfactory weather during the season, improved fertilizer distribution and absence of migratory pests. Assuming a normal “Belg” crop, aggregate cereal and pulse production in 1995/96 is expected to reach 9.4 million tons, some 13 percent higher than the above-average crop in the previous year.Given good production and adequate levels of food aid carryover stock, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission last December estimated that no cereal imports will be required in 1996, other than limited quantities of committed food aid pledges. Actual food aid pledges until mid-March amount to 227 000 tons of which 136 000 tons have been delivered.Although the overall food supply situation remains stable, food assistance is required for up to 3 million people in parts where “Meher” crops were reduced and in traditionally vulnerable and food insecure areas, particularly in Tigray, North Wollo, Walaita and Hararghe zones. The Government has appealed to donors to purchase most of the relief assistance locally.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1996 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)

	Wheat	Rice	Coarse grains	Total
Normal production	950	-	5 600	6 550
Normal imports	700	5	75	780
of which: Structural food aid	380	5	65	450
1995 Production	1 618	-	6 996	8 614
1996 Utilization	1 698	-	6 996	8 694
Food use	1 423	-	5 545	6 968
of which: Local purchase requirement	(-)	(-)	(235)	(235)
Non-food use	275	-	1 371	1 646
Exports	-	-	80	80
1996 Import Requirement	80	-	-	80
Anticipated commercial imports	-	-	-	-
Food aid needs	80	-	-	80
Current Aid Position
Food aid pledges	204	1	22	227
of which: Delivered	126	-	10	136
Donor-financed local purchases	-	-	139	139
Estimated per caput consumption (kg/year)	25	-	98	123
Indexes
1995 production as % of normal:				132
1996 import requirement as % of normal:				10
1996 food aid requirement as % of normal (including refugee needs):				18

FAO/GIEWS - April 1996